Last week Putin signed a law postponing the Russian census for 5 years. Information is an enemy of fascism.
At the rate Saudi Arabia usually pumps at, they need oil to be above $80 a barrel in order to balance the budget which is full of wild spending on dubious investments as the Saudi's try to convince themselves they aren't just oil. But non-OPEC producers are mining a bunch of oil these days (the US mostly, but others too), and the rest of OPEC which never ever listens to the Saudi's request to pump less are shockingly not listening to the Saudi's request to pump less. But under OPEC agreements, Saudi Arabia is allowed to pump a lot more than they do, and they are now going to - first to make up in volume what they aren't making in price, and second to punish the rest of the feckless OPEC by making oil so cheap they will be ruined. A Saudi minister says it might go below $50. Russia is, of course, dependent on oil exports. The worse things get for OPEC and global warming, the worse things get for Russia.
Three things: 1. This is a weird way to admit you don't have enough census-takers (where did they go?). 2. This is a weird way to admit your population is in free-fall (where did everybody go?). 3. This is a weird length of time -- it's not even past Putin's 2030 re-election run.
"The Russian Ministry of Economic Development recorded a slowdown in GDP growth in August due to a decline in agriculture" "Agricultural output in August was 14.7% below last year's level" https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2024/10/...-iz-za-padeniya-v-selskom-khozyaystve-a143872
Russian companies have established a barter trade system with Pakistan to facilitate economic exchanges without the need for monetary transactions as they seek to overcome payment challenges related to Western sanctions on Moscow.https://t.co/gfUEjX8cCc— The Moscow Times (@MoscowTimes) October 2, 2024 But sanctions do not work Why is Pakistan stupid ... do they not know ruble is strong currency? BRICS any day now
Despite being able to afford to pay wages three to four times the average pay, there still seems to be a severe shortage in manpower in the Russian defense industry. There are many tens of thousands of open positions being posted on job sites for skills that just don't exist in those numbers. And while the pay is very enticing, you also get worked hard. Some jobs in the industry require 11 hour days 7 days a week. https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-desperate-recruit-workers-defense-232605387.html Note I said manpower. While in Ukraine women are now in heavy industry, due to the misogyny inherent in fascism Russian women are prohibited by law from doing jobs that can "hurt their reproduction", so they can't work with many chemicals, metals, or do jobs that require lifting heavy objects. This has only just started to change - about 5 days ago a rule was added so women can now work certain positions in mining.
The ruble is inching closer to a line Putin doesn't want to cross. The official exchange rate is now 95 rubles to the dollar and it's still moving south (it was 94.5 two days ago). Also, ever since that bank meltdown a few months back, the real exchange rate is meaningfully worse than the official one. Certain Russian budget problems could actually be alleviated by debasing the currency, and if you are sending out oil or gold or tangerines to buy imports it won't matter a whole lot to the economy. But there are perception issues, so I doubt Putin will willingly go there.
I'm sure this will go over well... Ukrainian sources are saying that 6 North Korean military officers were killed in missile strike in the Donetsk region. They were reportedly in the area to observe Russian tactics and the effectiveness of NK provided equipment. 🇺🇦⚔️🇰🇵 According to a publication in the Kyiv Post, six North Korean attaches were neutralized in a Ukrainian strike in the territory of occupied Donetsk. They are believed to have been in Ukraine to collect information on the lessons learned by the Russian Armed Forces during… pic.twitter.com/4T8n1qJdUd— Astraia Intel 🇺🇦🇮🇱 (@astraiaintel) October 4, 2024
I'm saying Putin doesn't want to be perceived as the leader of a weak nation, and part of being strong is having strong money.
Russian banks are now offering 8% interest on people depositing Chinese yuan. It's a little strange because China is teetering on deflation. But there is a desperate shortage of Chinese money in the Russian economy, and banks are willing to pay crazy prices to get some. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/7199609
Russian "stealth" technology is now available for study. Interesting development with the downed in a friendly fire incident Russian aircraft this morning on the Donetsk front. With more videos of the wreckage and the moment of the crash now available, the consensus is that it was a Russian Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik-B stealth heavy unmanned… https://t.co/iG5vdbCb73 pic.twitter.com/I71FvcwkzS— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 5, 2024
Stealth designs are meant to work best in certain directions. The S-70 has a bare standard jet exhaust and very visible control surface mechanisms so from the back it is very visible. Not that it's very stealthy from any direction given the construction: There is a story about the Have Blue prototype that preceded the F-117 where in one day of testing it had a much larger radar return than usual. The culprit was one screw that was proud of the surface by a couple millimeters and wasn't puttied. All these naked and non-flush screws are terrible for stealth. Forget modern stealth aircraft - late 4th generation like the F/A-18 E/F and the Rafale are probably stealthier than this. I don't think we are learning anything from the wreck. Then again, this is also a prototype - only 4 have been made. Maybe the (probably never to be made) production version would have been better.
found video of the shoot down.. oh yeah. It was no accident. Russia lost control of the drone and was trying to shoot it down before it got to Ukrainian territory and/or destroy it. The US would have dropped a bomb on it too. 1842498480335368603 is not a valid tweet id
Actually we are learning some things. Mostly how bad it is. Russia had claimed many features that the real thing just doesn't have. It was supposed to be a "loyal wingman" to the Su-57 with AI features and posses an advanced unjammable high-bandwidth communication link between the aircraft (of the kind NATO has used for a while). It turns out to be a simple thing with control technology barely better than any other drone being used in the war. It's just a regular radio signal that the Su-57 relays from the ground station where all its inputs come from. https://defence-blog.com/new-details-emerge-on-russias-s-70-drone-loss-over-ukraine/ It also appears that the drone was carrying a couple D-30SN guided bombs which I talked about here. I'm guessing someone wanted to deploy this in a war situation to get additional funding from Putin. I'm also guessing that isn't going to happen now.
According to OSINT, since October 9, 2023, in Pokrovsk section of the front, Russian army has lost 1830 units of heavy equipment. That is equivalent to 5 armored divisions. In particular, Russians lost 539 tanks and 1030 armored vehicles.
Yes, and, keep in mind, this is just one section (albeit the busiest) of front. Also, these numbers represent just the visually confirmed losses in equipment. I imagine real losses may be higher.
https://www.hartvannederland.nl/bui...landse-f16s-aangekomen-en-ingezet-in-oekraine use google translate if interested in the rest of the article. First Dutch F16s arrived and deployed in Ukraine Ukraine Yesterday, 19:02 - Update: Yesterday, 20:17 The first Dutch F-16s have arrived in Ukraine and have already been deployed. It is not known how many fighter jets are currently in Ukraine. Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans leaves that open, because he does not want the Russians to know more than necessary. Last week, plane spotters gathered in Vonkel to wave goodbye to the F-16s. In the video above you can see how that went. Before the summer, Brekelmans already indicated that the fighter jets would soon go to Ukraine, but for a long time the Ministry of Defense could not make any further statements about this. In total, the Netherlands has pledged 24 F-16s. He can, however, confirm that "in the coming months, until the beginning of next year" even more fighter jets will leave for Ukraine.