Ukraine vs Russia III

The whole thread is definitely worth reading. The actual article, even more so. The English-language version is quite readable. Money quote:

The AFU planned everything smartly, like straight out of a textbook: conduct additional reconnaissance, chart the route, and most importantly, do it quickly. They arrived in groups and just started pushing forward without securing positions. Just further and further — one swift push. Because if they were to secure positions, it would give us more time and opportunities to bring in troops to stop them. So they just push forward as fast as possible, while ours are talking shit, arguing, showing up, and filming reports. As they say in the army: ‘If you want to defeat Russia, declare war, and it will ******** itself up with inspections.’ And that’s what happened here. While they were gathering to show up, the AFU had already broken through deep inside, so it’s impossible to stop them locally. For instance, they’ve penetrated, let’s say, 15 km — meanwhile, the sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRGs) go even further — and start digging in [when they reach assigned areas]. And when the Russian troops finally show up, the SRG start attacking them.
In this situation, our forces didn’t just respond late — they didn’t respond [properly] at all. Especially with . . . there are only conscripts and border guards here, and they have nothing. That’s why they surrender in whole packs, because, firstly, the conscripts don’t know how to fight, and secondly, they don’t have the weapons to repel such attacks.
https://istories.media/en/opinions/2024/08/12/kursk-oblast/

​

 

That Russian, a 48 year old native of the area, has been arrested and charged with spreading information about the attack.

In other Kursk news, we've been hearing about the Akhmat unit of the Kadyrov forces, but the current information is that the unit is pretty much decimated with many killed and the rest fled. Turns out when the Ukrainians started crossing the border, they were flooded with information on the Akhmat locations from the Russians themselves (captured soldiers and civilians) because they hated the Kadyrovs so much due to the poor way they treated everyone.

 

It is worth noting that even though Ukraine is advancing and solidifying gains in Kursk, Russia is doing the same across the front in Ukraine to a smaller degree.

Ukraine map update:

While attention has been on the unexpected 🇺🇦 advances in Kursk, 🇷🇺 advances across the line have continued within 🇺🇦.

🇷🇺 advances along the rail line between Avdiivka and Pokrovsk have continued for another week. pic.twitter.com/bLjNBsEt1A

— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) August 13, 2024

Ukraine seems to have done a lot of robbing from Paul to pay Mary in order to carry out this attack and it doesn’t seem like Russia is shifting as many troops from the front in Ujraine to the front in Kursk as Ukraine may have hoped.

 

There was an absolutely massive drone attack on Russian airbases by Ukraine over night. Over 100 drones were sent, many of which reached their targets..

Fighterbomber confirms that in last night's attack where 117 UAVs were used, 3 Russian airfields were targeted. Some successfully. pic.twitter.com/MyHnrPSJUg

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) August 14, 2024

 

That's entirely believable but I'd argue that there's another factor: that there's a decent-sized Chechen contingent in the UAF, specifically the International Legion. Those guys are in exile because of the brutality of the Kadyrov regime, something that many of them have experienced personally.

Being exceptionally afraid of their brethren's methods of "interrogation", I would imagine they took far more dangerous escape routes than any other units.

Couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of guys

 

How much of this is Putin wanting to take Chasiv Yar and Pokrofsk, versus Russian military top brass refusing to subordinate themselves to the FSB, versus Russia literally being unable to shift troops due to how degraded their logistics network in the Donbas is?

In other words, should Ukraine just steamroll onto Kursk and Belgorod because it's Generals Bel Riose vs the Emperor all the way down?

 

I just want to see footage of F-16's bombing & strafing a Russian Airfield then doing barrel rolls

 

I can absolutely see why Ukraine might be ok with Russia overextending themselves in the South. That front will have increased supply issues with Sudza now taken and per UK intelligence are hard hit by a drought to the point of only being allowed 1 liter per day per soldier. That whole side is evacuated and Ukraine is prepared to absorb losses there as long as they show progress in Krusk. Ukraine has a huge advantage in moving troops between the two fronts and just better overall tactics. Also, Kursk was the launching pad of many airstrikes to Ukraine. Ukrainian infrastructure has been teetering and struggling with rolling blackouts particularly because the US stopped sending critical air defense components. A reduction of those airstrikes is crucial for Ukraine to continue fighting. I don't think Russia will have much success defending in Krusk with only sending their reserves. This is a fair tradeoff in my opinion.

 

Yep, the bigger the success in Krusk the more likely that Russia will go into fail mode. UA continues rolling through villages south of the Reka River and controlling the border while also moving east from Sudzha. Sudzha is thoroughly controlled by UA and the even sent media there. I'm waiting for the moment were Zelensky tours Sudzha.

 

It really looks like the advance units of the Ukrainian attack are wheeled vehicles of various kinds. Much faster on roads, and a lot quieter too

 

If so, it'd be interesting to see if the AMX-10 shows up here.

These kinds of operations - fire support and exploiting gaps in frontlines - are what it was designed for

 

I'm happy with the Ukrainian invasion of Russia.

 

Ukrainian gains in the Kursk offensive (confirmed gains in blue, contested territory in yellow) compared with Russian gains in the Avdiivka offensive since January 1st (in red), according to OSINT expert Andrew Perpetua

 

In typical Russian fashion, Russia just released footage from a gunships as it strafed and destroyed a Russian convoy headed towards Kursk. They, of course, claim it is a Ukrainian convoy.

The russians released helicopter guncam footage of them taking out a convoy with guided missiles.

Their own convoy. pic.twitter.com/nrlB3KSVgz

— Seveer of the 95th rifles (@Seveerity) August 14, 2024

 

The tears of your neighbour are but water.
Russian proverb