if you really wanted to make Putin think again you’d put a couple more US armoured divisions and a whole bunch of airpower in to Poland with eyes on Minsk and force Putin to move forces out of Ukraine. of course a build up of that nature likely entails wild risks of regional escalation.
it feels like this is a limited operation to create a breach in russian defensive line that they will have to deploy large scale forces to defend or clean up. of course if mobile ukraine forces arrived in numbers they could expand significantly
Their reserves are only "meat" to throw at static Ukrainian lines to use up Ukraine's ammo or occupy positions that have been bombed-out by glide bombs. Trained and equipped troops that work in formation? Nope. Can defend against encirclement by mechanized infantry in Kursk? Definitely not. Able to deal with combined arms assaults in 2025? Not that either. They may not even have the logistics management capacity to deploy enough meat to Kursk to meaningfully slow the Ukrainians down. Still, the fact that any reserves, however mismatched, will have to be thrown into Kursk is going to give Ukrainian forces some much-needed respite. Where you're wrong IMO is about a crossing at Kherson. Kiev doesn't have air superiority and with training constraints it's going to take until around Xmas for them to acquire even a squadron-sized formation of F-16s. A crossing at this stage is placing a bet on a general collapse, which is never a good idea.
My thinking is that Kherson is the easiest place for a large assault given the entrenchments in Zaporizhzhia. And it would be the most difficult given the distances between Kursk and Kherson.
Ukraine should avoid trying to take Moscow. It hasn't worked out too well in the past. Though to be honest the way Russia's armed forces are preforming they could probably walk right in.
Video circulating of two T-80 tanks abandoned - intact - by Russian troops in the Kursk salient. That's jaw-dropping cowardice or lack of training. Even if the engines wouldn't start, Operations 101 says the commander takes 1-2 shells and 2 litres of petrol per tank, puts them in the crew compartment, then lights a match, closes the hatches and drives/runs off. Now the Ukrainians have 2 working or easily repairable tanks to add to their arsenal Dear liberators, the routed occupiers have left two tanks (thereof one T-80BVM) unattended in the lobby. Please come pick them up: 36U XB 57257 7254251.182649, 35.250077Goncharovka, Kursk@GeoConfirmed @UAControlMap pic.twitter.com/knQ63Zb2dg— PJ "giK" (@giK1893) August 9, 2024
Another attack in the Belgorod direction, or just trolling? Either way, UAF have occupied the village of Poroz in the Oblast Soldiers of 252nd Battalion of Ukrainian 241st Territorial Defense Brigade and Georgian volunteers in Poroz village of Belgorod Oblast, Russia. #UkraineRussiaWar https://t.co/m2KItXF7th— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) August 10, 2024
There was a Russian T-72B3M obr. 2022 (so modern upgraded tank) abandoned and captured in another location, so this isn't a fluke. Things like that happen when you move fast. The slightest thing goes wrong and the only thing you can do is flee. Meanwhile, there's multiple videos of Ukrainians taking their own damaged vehicles back to Ukraine to get them fixed up, which says a lot about their logistics right now.
I think it's just the Russians are flying too slowly. If you are stationary, obviously the best path is to fly directly at it. The closer you are to stationary, the better that works. Flying straight at the target is how early guided missiles worked, and they were very limited. When proportional navigation started being used they got much more effective. Russians may be relaxed because their defensive warning systems are designed to look for radar emissions and missile plumes, and drones don't give off either.
I'd say this has a lot to do with it. These look like FPV drones, which are too small to show up on radar until the last moment and are moving too quickly at that stage for evasive moves. Evasive measures at that range would likely require some visual on the drone, which is small, moving at 100+ mph and grey-coloured moving against the background of the sky. Good luck with that. Interestingly, the drone-on-drone "shootdown" videos I've seen generally show the killer drone getting quite a few passes at its target before the final hit. These chopper takedown videos are much shorter with only one pass shown, presumably to avoid giving clues as to the tactics used.
2022: Russia is the second strongest army in the world 2023: Russia is the second strongest army in Ukraine 2024: Russia is the second strongest army in Russia
It's day 900 of Russia's 3-day Special Military Operation, so I suppose an update is overdue Total number of square kilometres captured by Russia during 2024 = 752 Total number of square kilometres captured in Russia during 2024 = 855 - and counting
It's worse than that for the helicopter because they don't have radar. Against drones, all they have is what they can see, and with tiny drones coming in on the rear quarter that's pretty much impossible. They never knew what hit them. There were videos of attempts on helicopters before, and they just miss and the helicopter flies away. Helicopters can fly much faster than drones. I'm sure Russians have regulations about how to fly near the front, but with the front changing faster than it has in ages, they screwed up.
Last night Russia used four North Korean ballistic missiles. One hit a residential block, killing a 4 year old and his father. Once Russia gets the Iranian missiles, this will probably be more common.
Here's a good unrolled Twitter thread on Russian conscripts and what we know about their use in the Kursk incursion (which is not much). https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1822504166402466089.html#google_vignette Basically, they are even worse soldiers than the Mobilized, having training in picking potatoes instead of rifles. It is unclear how much they are being used, but they are most of what Putin has considering he doesn't want to end his ongoing offensive.
They barely scratched the border and can't even threaten Kursk seriously because of the long flanks. Imo the best thing they can do is turn south east and draw a direct line through Russian territory until they reach Ukrainian territory again. This way the defensive line in the northeast would be half the length and they could hold on Russian territory. They also proved to be able to attack beyond the border which will force Russians to defend their border with more troops at every time.
You can counter this problem with information. If you know where the Russian forces are you don't need to keep so many back to man the lines waiting for counterattacks. You can also counter it with keeping the initiative. Force the Russian to put troops where Ukraine wants them. The rumors of where Ukraine is attacking are totally confused and all over the place. This is to the benefit of Ukraine and to the consternation of Russia. This forces Russia to spread out (probably a lot more than Ukraine is actually spread out) and causes confusion and fear. They should take this as far as they can. I trust they know what they are doing. To continue echoing Vlad Vexler, the Russian feeling of boarderlessness works in Russia's favor. The population of Russia (outside of those directly effected) don't feel offended or threatened or reduced by having their country invaded. But the longer this goes on and the further this goes the more chance this has of politicizing people.
According to WOTR Ukraine likely does not have the mobile reserves for any deep strike Rather they take the opportunity to hold land as a bargaining chip, move the front line away from their own settlements, divert Russian reserves etc
Ukrainian troops now up to 30km inside Russia, Moscow says https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crkm08rv5m0o