Ukraine vs Russia III

Russia hit a Ukrainian supermarket with a missile, as is their usual response to bad news.

 

A brave Russian drove by the results today and filmed it. It was devastating. More than a dozen military trucks burned, and many trucks full of dead soldiers.

 

Wow... A Russian milblogger is saying an entire battalion was in that convoy and half are dead. DIPICM is brutal.

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Also, if you're wondering how Ukraine found out about the convoy. Opsec is a real b*tch. Russian citizens and soldiers are putting tons of videos of Russian troops and vehicles moving around and there was at least one of this column parked on the side of the road.

 

Before/after images of the Lipetsk ammo dump hit has shown up. It is partially obscured by smoke, but what is visible looks to be wiped clean.

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Ukraine has released drone footage of the attack. In the video three missiles are dropped right on top of a cluster of trucks. There are other clusters visible in the video, but we don't see them getting hit in the video. Based on the aftermath video, at least some of them were hit as well.

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OSPEC is the f*cking hardest thing to control. I was base OPSEC office at Dover AFB in the late 80s, flying, you know, the hard-to-hide C-5. I still have nightmares about the dozens of daily breaches we had. A spouse who notices that their crew member getting three days' rest prior to a trans-Atlantic flight, and then mentions that to a friend, and boom, OPSEC leak. And that was before the days of smart phones and the ether upon which to upload vids and pics. I cannot imagine trying to wage war when your own soldiers are taking the offending images.

 

Is this the first video evidence of western weapons being used during this attack? To date I’ve only seen tweeted claims of western equipment.

In the last couple of days I recall a state department official…when asked in a news conference about allowing Ukraine to use Us supplied weapons inside Russian territory responding along the lines of “Ukraine is conducting this operation consistent with our policy..and that policy has not changed”

I also recall a public request in the last couple of days from Ukraine seeking permission. I am not sure which actually came first.

But if the US hasn’t changed its mind…or even if they have but want to maintain deniability…Ukraine letting shit like this leak is a very bad thing. I’m not sure publicly giving your main weapons suppliers a giant ******** you is a winning strategy.(I assume that video is from a Ukrainian drone rather than a Russian one).

 

I mean what are the DoD and Biden admin going to do? Stop supplying Ukraine and let the Russians gain the offensive initiative again this close to the election?

News of Ukraine losing more and more grounds going into November can't be good for the campaign

 

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Russia is clearly running out of ballistic missiles but like in the case of shells they can buy to act as a buffer until they replenish their domestic stock

So my guess is they are getting newer type S-300/S350 or S-400 and maybe even Su34, Su-35s

 

Blood for the Blood God / Skulls for the Skull Throne

 

I think the US is being intentionally vague about what Ukraine is and is not allowed to do with US provided equipment. I also think that after several years of begging the US to allow them to use US provided equipment in Russia, Ukraine has decided that it is better to ask for forgiveness than to ask for permission. There does seem to be a line with using ATACMS against airfields in Russia, but Ukraine has also been hitting those airfields with their own long range drones.

I have seen some analysts saying that Ukraine is attempting to show the US that Russia's red lines are actually just smoke and mirrors and, as a result, the US should lift all restrictions and allow Ukraine to operate the war as it thinks best rather than the US holding them back.

 

A supercut of Ukraine taking out Russian recon drones.

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The US just announced a significant new aid package is headed Ukraine's direction.

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Also, Ukrainian disinformation campaign going on that Shoigu is planning a coup..

 

Russian troops are already being transferred away from Donetsk. It will be a long while before they can make it to Kursk given that the rail line runs through Sudzha.

 

Humvees and MRAPs in official video, Strykers have been videoed unofficially. Ukraine mostly films the ex-Soviet stuff to give a fig leaf to Western nations and to hide their true strength. By indirect methods we know there is probably a lot more. Drone units have their own watermarks on videos, and they are attached to existing units which we know a bit about. For example, one drone unit we've seen working there is attached to a brigade that uses CV90's and other Western vehicles.

None of this is secret. We already have lists from Russian Telegram of many of the Ukrainian units currently in Russia.

 

Seems unlikely now that every week had more of the people with power and influence in the ground forces that supported him in prison.

A funny one happened last week. This place:



is the cathedral to the armed forces in a place called "Patriot Park". The guy running Patriot Park, a Shoigu ally, was charged with corruption. Hard to imagine corruption in a place that looks like that, I say sarcastically.

 

I guess that answers my question if Biden GAF anymore about red lines. Maintain plausible deniability and let Ukraine ******** shit up.

 

Soviet joke.

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Maybe the Ukraine "Nazis" can do what Hitler could not.

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Unexploded ordinance sent flying all over the place is one possibility.

Other munitions depots in the area that are far more dangerously located for civilians and could be targeted is another.

Maybe the UXO is in/near hazardous industrial materials storage site(s).

 

Lipetsk airbase munitions storage; before and after

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Once is happenstance, twice is circumstance but three times equals enemy action.

A few more successful attacks like this means the Ukrainians have found ways around the challenges you outlined earlier.

Extra training for their best FPV pilots, coupled with a new model/souped-up drone would be my guess FWIW

 

"Russians are slaves"
Shamil Basayev

 

Given the LiveUA Map -- and relative lack of Russian attacks on it -- from the last 24 hours, this assault appears to be a major success. Giving the Donetsk frontline a week to rotate troops without major attacks commencing is huge.

This also strongly indicates -- at least to me -- that the Russian military do not have reserves. Everything is at the front. Ukraine might merely have to combine this with a river crossing at Kherson to reintroduce maneuver to the war.

Someone tell me how I'm wrong.