From top OSINT poster Andrew Perpetua THERE IS SO MUCH NEWSI CANT KEEP UP.SEND HELP.— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) August 8, 2024
Perpetua's just posted this map of the observed frontline situation, tagging it as "really very, very conservative". It's what happens when you pour your reserves into attritional warfare and the enemy starts maneuver warfare instead - and you have no reserves left. When - if - he meets resistance, he just bypasses your forces and leaves them to wither on the vine. E.g. multiple voenkors reporting 2 battalions cut off in and just to the east of Sudzha. That may have only been temporary but you can be damned sure that a lot of equipment was abandoned/destroyed in the breakout.
It's all pretty crazy. Much, much bigger than we expected. Mostly silence from Ukraine. Reports of jamming and DDoS from Russia. Reports from so many places.
It seems like taking Korenevo will make or break how long Ukraine can hold on to this territory. I'll have to merge these maps together later tonight but Russia has lost control of the Lgov-Belgorod Rail line. A 🇺🇦 Battalion-sized element from the 22nd Mechanized Brigade supported by roughly a battalion-sized element from the 88th Mechanized Brigade reached the tracks… pic.twitter.com/qTHyvlKPY7— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) August 8, 2024
To show how bad it is, Russia has started flying Wagner soldiers back from Africa to shore up the line. This is a risky move. Going by the messages the Wagner soldiers send each other, they are as likely to attack the Russians as the Ukrainians. They are still pissed at what happened to Prigozhin.
Seriously. Every other attack into Russia has been a raid, and I assumed this was one too at first. Only anti-Putin Russians, limited supplies, limited artillery, no air support. This is different. Some of the best troops (the spear head was by the Georgian unit - very respected), heavy drone support, helicopters and aircraft seen (even rumors of F-16's). I'm getting a bit of an Inchon Landing feeling from this. If you are getting hammered everywhere, try something crazy where they aren't.
I cannot imagine a world where Putin has legitimacy to govern AND Ukraine holds any territory in Kursk. There is no way the Russians let this stand, even if it means they withdraw from Crimea. This is dangerous ground for Putin; failure to protect pre-2014 Russia will have future rivals for power eyeing up who can take over.
Pissed? Yes. To the point of doing something? No. No leader (Prigozin & lieutenants dead), organization structure gone, heavy equipment destroyed, etc. and they know it. It's really hard to imagine them trying anything significant. On the battlefield, they will likely fight quite hard but their value at (let alone beyond) company level is questionable: willingness to obey orders, willingness to support other units, doctrine differences, commanders hating & fearing them etc.
Yes, and I suspect that this is one of the strategic goals of this operation. Putin's rule is based on arbitrating disputes between elites. If this operation isn't repulsed and immediately, his ability to dominate the elites will be holed below the waterline. Dunno about him giving up Crimea though. By the time it gets to that point, he'll already have been removed.
Russian citizens begging Putin for help as they suddenly find themselves in occupied territory and/or getting no help from the military/city officials to leave areas the Ukrainians are approaching. “Putin! Putin! Please help! Please help! You probably don’t know anything but it’s scary what’s happening!”‼️Sound ON‼️#Russia pic.twitter.com/roc2hwsDib— Natalka (@NatalkaKyiv) August 8, 2024 A Russian citizen with some choice words as they run across Russian tanks leaving Sudzha. Moment Russian civilian encounters Russian tanks leaving the town of Sudzha in Kursk Zone. pic.twitter.com/t4HAwJxEG9— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) August 8, 2024 If this keeps up, it could be very, very bad for Putin from a PR perspective.
Aftermath of a HIMARS paying a visit to Russian column that was forming up to reinforce in Kursk. Reports of a destroyed Russian column in Oktyabrskoe, near Rylsk, Kursk Special Operation Zone. pic.twitter.com/gfAMXNJUzr— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) August 8, 2024 A geolocation showing it well behind the lines, so no chance it is Ukrainian. Geo from @moklasen and @foosint https://t.co/GDnRKO0VoV pic.twitter.com/MHuscEmESo— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 8, 2024
Ukraine's incursion into Russia may have had the desired effect. There has, reportedly, been a noticeable drop in the number of attacks by the Russians in other areas of the front: I know all eyes are on Kursk - we only recorded two very small Russian advances in Ukraine in the last 24 hours. The daily number of attacks is down 30-35% for the last two days compared to August 5 (final number for August 8 not available until 22:00 PDT)— Malcontent News (@MalcontentmentT) August 8, 2024 It doesn't necessarily mean that Russia is withdrawing troops from the front, but could just be that their air assets are now operating to stop the Kursk offensive rather than in support of assaults in other areas of the front. That being said, Ukraine has asked the US permission to let them use ATACMS on Russian airfields that are attacking the offensive. “Ukrainian officials have asked Washington to let them to use long-range U.S. ATACMS missiles to hit airfields that Russia is using to retaliate against the incursion.” https://t.co/uIi3efUxRB pic.twitter.com/LvWVhdKSbc— Mick Ryan, AM (@WarintheFuture) August 8, 2024
This is something out of France 1940. Are we going to start measuring Russian losses in panzer divisions again?
All I can think is that it is a damn shame Ukraine didn’t have HIMARS at the start of the war. Can you imagine the destruction Ukraine could have caused on that 40km traffic jam??
The story is that the drone that hit his SUV (which had three anti-drone jammers) pretty much hit him directly. The camera crew in the van were sure he was dead, so they abandoned him. That's where the initial rumors came from. Then a rescue crew arrived and found him still alive. He was immediately airlifted to the Sklifosovsky institute in Moscow in a Western helicopter, the same excellent world-class care that all wounded Russian soldiers get.
We're now getting more information. Well, more rumors. First, it appears that some Russians knew something was up weeks ago. A story from Russian Telegram is that the Commander of the border group, Deputy Commander of the Leningrad Military District, and Lieutenant General Abachev all reported to Gerasimov that an invasion was building up and Gerasimov said "don't be led by enemy disinformation" and ordered them to do nothing. Also, lots of the currently surrendering Russians have these: which are instructions on how to surrender properly. So Ukraine has also been prepping the Russians when these psy-ops flyers for a while too. (The other sides of these flyers are a little more... interesting. Let's just say it's the kind of thing a soldier who is now banned from having a phone might want to keep around. Smart.) It also looks like the Ukrainians have developed new tactics for this attack. According to a Russian Telegram, what the Ukrainians do is knock out the Russian observation drones completely over an area, bring lots of electronic countermeasures right up the front to block all Russian FPV drones, use artillery to prevent Russians from responding to that, send out a bunch of their own drones using the few frequencies not blocked, then high-speed infantry assault the positions identified and partially destroyed by drones. When that's done, repeat. We know parts of this have been tested on other fronts last month, so that gives some more clues. So there is every indication this was planned a long time ago, and preparation took at least a month, probably many. From what I've seen of the many, many videos of civilians driving around, there are almost zero mines and no other physical engineering to slow an attacker down. Russia was totally caught with their pants down.
Or if it were Jitty, Operation Bagration, and Kursk, Kursk, Kursk!!! This bold action really came out of left field. I hope UKR can hang on to vast swathes of Russian territory, and eventually trade it for Crimea. Russian peoples won't care if Putin snatches another destroyed Ukrainian town. But losing Russian territory [Kursk? Gasp!] to UKR forces are quite embarrassing.
i’ve wanted something like this for ages but assumed it was politically impossible. The Voronezh axis of advance is the way to unhinge the south
In the last two days the Lipetsk airfield and the Belbeck airfield near Sevastopol were hit with drones. The former is a particularly important fighter airbase. Looks like the ammo dump in both of those was hit.
Well, looks like a Russian Mi-8 medium transport helicopter was hit in the tail with a drone in the exact same way. No footage after that, but helicopters don't stay flying without the tail. Don't know why Russian pilots are making it so easy for Ukraine.