Ukraine vs Russia III

It's becoming a combination of both.

1. For these long range attacks, Ukraine is starting to use "AI" to allow drones to continue their attack even if the signal from the operator is jammed by EW systems or to use frequency hopping to make it more difficult to sever that connection.

2. Ukraine absolutely has been destroying Russian air defenses, especially in the Mariupol region, which would help drones get past that layer of defense on the way to Rostov-on-don. However, one thing that we've seen from Ukraine's deep penetration attacks, Russian air defenses aren't very good vs. drones. Russia has taken to relying upon reports from citizens to identify drones and launching helicopters to attack the drones rather than using anti-air systems.

 

In one of the recent pictures/videos of Ukraine's F-16s, which variant of AIM-120 was identified. Unfortunately, it looks like the US is doing what it has done previously and sending Ukraine older variants and ordering new variants to replace them. The variant on the F-16 in the photo was an AIM-120B, which has a published 70km range and are at the end of their operational lifespan. Unlike Russia, the US tends to under-report the range and effectiveness of its systems, so the range could be longer. Given the 40km drop range for Russia's glide bombs and the fact that Ukraine will be firing the missiles from pretty close to the front lines..

 

A close-up photo of the the munitions depot that was attacked a few days ago has been circulating on Ukrainian and Russian social media... It looks like someone took a bulldozer to the site and cleared it.. The amount of munitions lost in the attack seems to be fairly large.

What FABs doing?

Image of the destroyed ammunition dump at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast, Russia. They are lucky they built the 8' dirt berm between the warehouse/sheds to prevent a catastrophic detonation.

Source: https://t.co/1NCOFKm521#OSINT #UkraineWar… pic.twitter.com/2kze5rVfio

— OSINT (Uri Kikaski) 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇮🇱 (@UKikaski) August 5, 2024

EDIT: Replacing with better tweet that also shows before/after satellite.

 

I think it's already been linked here, but just in case, the wreckage of a North Korean ballistic missile has been recovered in the Kyiv area. So, NK is providing Russia not only with artillery shells, but also ballistic missiles. Fortunately this was "blew up" before it reached its destination, but Ukraine has had issues shooting down Russian ballistic missiles that aren't flying straight at the Patriot system, so this could be problematic for Ukraine as North Korea has a large number of ballistic missiles. Accuracy and reliability of the missiles are greatly in doubt, of course.

According to Defense Express Russians again used a North Korean-made KN-23 ballistic missile during a massive attack on Ukraine. The launch was recorded from the territory of Russia in the direction of Bila Tserkva. The missile fell on the territory of the Kyiv region, probably… pic.twitter.com/TiS2rl6uYZ

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 5, 2024

 

Well.. at least my post about this same image was only 3 hours after yours. *sigh*

 

Gigantic mountain of salt time.. Sushko often posts unsupported rumors as fact and seems to rely on unreliable sources a lot, but he does, from time to time, gets some right.

🚨 Russian Railways deputy head Sergei Kobzev told his subordinates the situation is critical: complete collapse of the entire railroad network in Russia could happen in days.
Railroad chiefs ordered to work to the limit and threatened with dismissal and execution for failure. pic.twitter.com/CwgbUlPMEH

— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) August 5, 2024

The only reason I give this even a modicum of consideration is that anti-Putin Russians have been conducting a sabotage campaign against Russia's railroad network for about a year now. Add that to the manpower issues that Russia has been suffering throughout the country, I could see it being a possibility.. A very, very distant possibility.

If it were true (probably not), this would pretty much be the end of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine. Russia's supply lines are absolutely dependent upon its railway network and, if it were to fail, it would be almost impossible for them to keep the front lines supplied.

 

In perhaps support that even Russia's opposition parties are not that far removed from Putin, there was an interview with several of the Russian opposition members that were released as part of the prisoner exchange. In the interview, they espoused a lot of the same narratives that Putin gave for justification for the war (NATO expansion, Ukraine's drift to the West, etc), didn't criticize the war outside the lost of Russian lives, and said that Ukraine has to accept that the occupied regions are Russian now.

One thing to consider is that Russian opposition feels that Ukraine has abandoned them. There were a number of large protests in Russia following the start of the war and, in response, Ukraine pushed for Western countries to ban entry of all Russians, including those opposed to Putin and it only got worse when Navalny's death was met with mocking from pro-Ukrainian social media.

This post about "what Russians must do to be accepted by Ukrainians" betrays a misunderstanding about Russians. It's not 2022 anymore.

As I see it, Russian liberals no longer seek an alliance with Ukrainians or seek their approval or validation.

Let me explain why.

1/ pic.twitter.com/RwuRXiVFwc

— Emu Brigadier (@emubrigadier) August 3, 2024

 

I worded this entirely wrong. Ukraine's pushing for Western countries to ban entry for all Russians was in response to the invasion, not the protests against the invasion. The point I was trying to make was that the ban turned a number of Russians opposed to Putin against Ukraine.. Well, not against, as I don't think they would take up arms against it, but they saw the advocating for a complete ban as Ukraine turning their back on a potential ally within Russian (or outside of Russia since they wanted to flee).

 

Another poster was apparently tagged frequently enough that he decided to respond.

Basically, there is a kernel of truth to Sushko’s statement, but a very small kernel. Russia’s cargo capacity on its railway network has decreased, but it is too soon for claims about it being on the verge of collapse.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1820539506774433809.html

 

To further illustrate how much Russia gives a sh1t abouth "escaladation"

Iran is getting advanced radars and AAs (S400?) from Russia. Which 100% means that Russians will operate them in Iran.

Meanwhile Israel didn't let Germany Poland Spain give Spike ATGMs

 

My view of this drivel is that somebody's upset that Ukrainians, while losing thousands of their countrymen, their friends and families haven't found it in their hearts to consider the feelings of the Russian opposition.

And why should they? If one wants to get into a fight against the Putin regime, they should take up arms. Nothing less would make any effect.

 

Haven't some Russians done exactly that? In Kursk and Belgorod? What about possible sabotage and intelligence helpful to thwart efforts? Are none of the Russian ex-pats helping with technical/online efforts?

I know it is not enough, whatever has been and is being done. But it is not nothing, no?

 

Oddly enough, they are doing that right now. In an attempt to force Russia to redirect troops from their offensive in the Avdiivka area, the anti-Putin Russian units are making another incursion into the Kursk region of Russia. It's getting pretty heavily criticized as Russia is still advancing with little sign of stopping in the Avdiivka area and Ukraine just diverted a brigade of veteran troops to have a romp in Russia.

Ukraine really messed up in not mobilizing more troops sooner. They really should have done it last year, but are now paying the price for a lack of personnel.

The situation in the Pokrovsk direction is critical, with defenses in several areas collapsed and yet to stabilize, largely due to a shortage of personnel. Diverting nearly a brigade to launch an assault on Kursk Oblast, which lacks strategic sense, borders on mental disability

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 6, 2024

 

And the suggestion of "executions" are ever going to be used to punish incompetence/poor results is beyond for the birds. It's complete and utter bullshit.

Sushko is a clickbait whore who is to be ignored, completely. On the offchance that he posts something useful, it's been cribbed from other sources but adulterated with his, ahem, personal spin. It'll surface on other threads pretty soon

 

in fairness, this is a sourced comment. The deputy head did say the railway network was on the verge if collapse.

 

This was actually explained in the tweet thread. Some Russian officials have started quoting Stalin and speaking in his style.

 

I am talking about the several Russian opposition figures liberated by Biden's Admin from Putin jail. They are still talking like "fight the Russian regime, not the Russian people" or "peaceful protest is what is going to work".

 

Russia is starting to suffer a labor problem, particularly in rural areas where men are signing contracts to join the military for the significantly higher pay. Public services are one of the areas being hit the hardest and governments are trying to entice women to start working. Another consideration is that manufacturing jobs that support the war are also sucking up men as they are forced to pay higher and higher wages to attract workers from other industries and/or pay more than the military to prevent men from joining the military.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1820905498973221086.html

 

Considering the US will not allow F16s to fly into Russia, I don't think it will be able to go too far into Russia. This is largely an attempt by Ukraine to force Russia to shift their reserves from other areas of the front and, hopefully, slow down their offensive in the Donetsk Oblast.

Although, I have seen videos of Western hardware being used by Ukraine for this operation. I don't know if it has been confirmed as the pictures/videos are from Russian sources, but the US, in particular, had a meltdown when Ukraine sent Hummers into Russia last year.

The image below says it is "along the border", but I've seen other super grainy images that said they were Strykers in Russia.

Image of an AFU M1132 Stryker ESV (Engineering Squad Vehicle) that was used to clear mines along the border with Kursk in support of their incursion into the KPR today.#OSINT #UkraineWar #BreakingNews #BreakingNow #Ukraine #Russia

Repost appreciated! pic.twitter.com/Ep2kul4fmz

— OSINT (Uri Kikaski) 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇮🇱 (@UKikaski) August 6, 2024

 

It is unclear if that video is from tonight, or from the previous attack on the airfield that wiped an ammo dump clean.

 

Ukraine has, reportedly, shot down 2 Ka-52s today. The one in the image below was, allegedly, brought down by an FPV hitting its tail.

FYI: The Russian Ka-52 that was destroyed today in Kursk was struck by an AFU FPV drone in the tail. The rotors (wings) are still intact indicating the crew did not eject. However, it is possible they were alble to conduct an emergency landing and escape.

Ukrainian sources… pic.twitter.com/5sTka87QBT

— OSINT (Uri Kikaski) 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇮🇱 (@UKikaski) August 6, 2024

 

Is there a goal from this, other than pulling some Russian troops from reserves?