Ukraine vs Russia III

Thats cruelty to children... Imagine you were fan of a World Cup Champion one day and living in a shithole country the next.

 

They'd probably still be usable, but their avionics will be a bit dated and only a small number of them received EW countermeasure upgrades in 2010.

Each new plane requires its own logistics chain, which has to be built from scratch and that takes time. Serious time. Then there's the pilot and groundcrew training challenges. The Ukrainians are really short on both and are struggling to withdraw either from the frontline for F-16 training as it is.

Adding another, rather obsolete plane to the mix isn't going to help Ukraine. Might help Russia by diverting time & resources to a dead end.

 

There was a similar case a decade or so back with two Russian illegals who pretended to be Canadians to infiltrate U.S. think-tank circles (including the Kennedy Scholl IIRC).

Their sons were, of course, shocked to discover that they were really Russians. They were also pissed as fcuk at the betrayal. BLUF being native-born, they sued for their Canadian citizenship, got it, and promptly left Russia for good.

IIRC they're barely on speaking terms with the mother and the father is outcast. The fact that they did it for Russia was an aggravating factor.

 

The Ukrainians hit the Morozovsk airbase (500 km from the front) again last night, with spectacular results for our delectation:

Massive secondary explosions at Russia’s Morozovsk Airbase tonight after a successful Ukrainian attack drone strike.

Likely a burning mix of aviation fuel, explosives, and rocket motors. pic.twitter.com/3NlimANrNg

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) August 3, 2024

Massive secondary explosions, suggesting ordinance stores began a chain detonation. Explosions could be heard 20km away.

The horror in the woman's voice is telling IMO. The base is in the middle of nowhere, with a couple of (very) small towns nearby. Everyone knows the base and the people who work there.

 

FIRMS images from NASA have the entire base lit up like a Christmas tree. Any aircraft on the ground are in for a long period back at the factory if they aren't actually toast

 

Even if they didn't hit stuff the first time the secondaries were wild. The sheer amount of ammunition that clearly exploded must have released tons of shrapnel that has damaged plenty of stuff. The local authorities even going house to house asking for damage.

pic.twitter.com/mftKgBzNQy

— Markus Viitasaari (@JViitasaa1) August 3, 2024

 

Still burning at dawn.

Morozovsk update pic.twitter.com/LdJVfEou5G

— IgorGirkin (@GirkinGirkin) August 3, 2024

 

Someone linked a guardian article about this in that x thread. Read it yesterday. Fascinating.

 

Hmmm.. so, when Ukraine sinks a surface ship, it gets promoted to submarine. What does a submarine get promoted to when Ukraine sinks it?

A russian submarine went to the bottom of the Black Sea.

Ukrainian defense forces successfully attacked the B-237 "Rostov-na-Donu" attack submarine in Sevastopol's port. As a result of the attack, the submarine sank.

Great work, warriors. The Black Sea fish will enjoy their new… pic.twitter.com/KzbaZATcFR

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 3, 2024

 

This submarine was actually hit by a missile last September in a famous attack that gutted the Minsk, and had a couple substantial holes. The Rostov-on-Don was repaired and in working order when it sank. This was a doubly expensive and demoralizing sinking.

 

Russia is reportedly flying a lot of military cargo planes to Iran. I'm not an expert, but it seems to me the thing they can send that will be the greatest help to Iran quickly would be anti-aircraft systems. If so, it's going to be a help to Ukraine. Russia is losing them faster than they can build them, and they are getting a little thin trying to protect a lot of targets all over their very big nation.

 

Which is why I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Ukrainians had deliberately let the Russians repair it before hitting it again.

Vicious trolling, which is why we are all tempted into applauding it.

That would be a mistake. There was no crew on board . . .

 

A fire broke out in the tube that carries signal lines for Berlin's trains. Hundreds of trains will be affected and repairs will take days. It was purposefully set.

https://amp.dw.com/en/berlin-train-services-disrupted-vandalism-suspected/a-69841557

Three guesses who was responsible.

 

There was an episode in the "Elementary" series (one of the few series I really appreciated) about such a situation. Crazy it isnot a phantasy.

 

Day 893 of the invasion LIVE | Zelensky confirms: F-16s have arrived in Ukraine and are already being deployed

 

I saw…and then lost…a tweet by someone who was claiming to be a retired air force colonel. The tweet was along the lines of this…

Vatniks: The F16’s are gonna be base models.
The F16’s (shows a picture of the wing pods on a Ukraine F16 and writes) IYKYK


Refused to explain further….but others were indicating that these were substantially upgrade versions…..and the weapons systems that will be available means Russian planes are gonna go through some things.

 

Special Kherson Cat added some context to this today. In an earlier attack on this airbase in April, 50 drones were sent and every one was brought down, mostly because the ECM deployed there. But in this attack 18 out of 40 drones reached their target.

 

Two main possibilities:
1) the Ukrainians have better drones that Russian EW can't disorientate and/or better tactics
2) the Russians are running low on air defences and leaving gaps to exploit

 

Neither am I an expert but I think it's highly unlikely. AA systems and aircraft are the only weapons systems Iran can't produce itself that Russia offers right now and Russia needs all of those for itself.

And Israel has ways of hurting Russia in return, especially in Syria. Moscow will be keenly aware of those.

Still, it's Russia so . . .

 

That's true, but I don't see what else Russia could offer. And Russia is very indebted to Iran for the shells and drones they sold that turned the war around for them and probably wants to keep that trade open.

In any case, it won't matter. Israel has the F-35.

 

It literally left a crater

A photo of the destroyed ammunition depot at the Russian Morozovsk Air Base in Rostov Oblast following Ukrainian drone attack there on Saturday. https://t.co/tz5bLUONzu pic.twitter.com/uVWzrphdg6

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) August 5, 2024