Ukraine vs Russia III

the government actively claimed responsibility for the assassination? I mean I support it if they did it, I'm just puzzled why they would openly take responsibility for it instead of keeping it vague.

 

The words from the Ukrainian official were "Yes, we can confirm that Kiva is done. And such a fate will befall other traitors of Ukraine", so it's pretending to be pretending to be vague.

 

Couple of interesting bits of news today.

1. An image of dozens of USVs was released by Ukraine this morning. The implication is that once there is a calm in winter storms, they will be prepared to launch some major attacks on Russian ships and ports.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...b?shareToken=ca3dfbff32bc8a4b499b8e38c615919d

2. Ukraine has signed an agreement with 2 US companies to set-up 155mm production inside of Ukraine. Unfortunately this will not resolve their ammunition issues as the production is at least 2 years out.

🚨Oleksandr Kamyshin, the Minister of Strategic Industries of Ukraine, has announced that they have made agreements with 2 American companies to establish joint production of 155mm ammunition in Ukraine. https://t.co/Mvfv2Lv1by

— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) December 7, 2023

3. Something that should be filed under "odd" is that a lot of open source antennas that airplane enthusiasts use to listen in on aircraft communications and track airplane locations are being "spoofed" inside Russia and Russian occupied Ukraine. It's been going on for months, but the most recent is happening today with Sevastopol's airport showing phantom takeoffs and landings, false airplane locations, etc, etc.

New: Sevastopol Airport and bizarre effects on aeronautical ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast) of possible Anomalies, Jamming and GPS Spoofing seen via https://t.co/fJiYeHXGcN#Sevastopol #Ukraine #Russia #Jamming #Spoofing #GPS #ADSB #EW #ElectronicWarfare https://t.co/50W1rh3y93 pic.twitter.com/2ouXK6EmqR

— GiamMa-based researchers SDR R&D IoT (@giammaiot2) December 7, 2023

4. A major manufacturer of electrical equipment for Russia's energy grid and industry had a smoking accident this morning and one of their plants went up in flames..

The building of Electrozavod, which produces electrical equipment for all industries, including the Russian defense industry, is on fire in Moscow. pic.twitter.com/J49IIaBmEB

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 7, 2023

5. The Ukrainian intelligence officer that has done some really good analysis on the war has moved some analysis that was behind the paywall on their substack and it involves them identifying Russia setting up "impromptu" helicopter bases across the occupied region in response to the arrival of ATACMS. The base identified in the thread is located in a beachfront resort and consists of 20 helicopter pads built on a beach. The base is well within range of ATACMS and it is obvious that Ukraine knows about it, but, so far, it has not been hit

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1732772023955341743.html

6. Related to the above, it has become obvious that the US only gave Ukraine a handful of ATACMS and has not given them. After the initial volley of around 20 ATACMs in late October, Ukraine has not fired any additional missiles and it doesn't seem like the US has sent any since the initial attacks. It is unclear if this is related to the funding issues the US is having, or if the US had issues with how Ukraine used the 20 they already received.

Ukraine 🇺🇦 has not fired an ATACMS missile since October 30th after firing at total of 16 ATACMS from October 17 to October 30

It appears that US 🇺🇸 has provided only ~20 Block 1 165km ATACMS missiles in October then stopped sending them after those strikes. Terrible mistake! pic.twitter.com/BIj5c1hfFP

— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) December 2, 2023

 

Oh.. Also. Ukraine funding prior to the end of the year is dead in the water. Neither chamber is close on coming up with funding bills and both chambers of Congress go on break next week with no plan to change that.

UKRAINE: Lawmakers tell me there is no way House will pass Ukraine aid in 2023. @SpeakerJohnson is firm on House leaving by Dec. 15 and no Senate deal in sight

— Erik Wasson (@elwasson) December 7, 2023

State department officials are saying there is no Plan B if Congress fails to provide funding for Ukraine.

I just finished a call with two senior Department of State officials. The news is bad. There is no plan B to Congress passing Ukraine aid. Failure means many more dead Ukrainians and victory for Putin. State said GOP will have much more blood on their hands if the block aid.

— Alexander S. Vindman ❎ (@AVindman) December 7, 2023

 

There was a recent video of a Mi-8 helicopter trying to hit one of these, They expended multiple salvos of unguided rockets and then all their machinegun ammo and didn't hit it. Not easy to hit a moving target. Obviously ships have weapons designed to hit other things on the sea, and they do kill lots of these drones, but at least two ships doing this protection duty have been hit themselves.

Russia has taken to putting up nets to stop these (which they were very late to do, considering it was a common tactic of WW I and II), but they were all wrecked by the recent storm so this is obviously the window to strike.

The second largest provider of shells (after the US) is (quietly) South Korea. They sent more than the whole EU combined. There was a EU initiative a long while back to ramp up production and send Ukraine a million shells, but that has been stymied. France will probably drop their requirement that the shells be produced totally within the EU. I certainly think the US should be doing more, but the EU has seriously dropped the ball.

It seems like there's a major fire in Russia every other day. An industrial complex at a White Sea port went up two days ago. There's no indication it has any direct cause from the war - it just seems Russia has industrial fires all the time. But they are getting bigger and spreading more - their fire departments have shrunk because so many of them have gone to war. I know that before the war state-run companies were pressured to sign up a certain percent of their employees to the then-newly-invented BARS units (basically a Russian National Guard) and now those are all at the front. Maybe it's true of government services too.

 

Here's an interesting story that's still developing. Ukraine captured five Russians holed up in a trench - four were from all the poorest parts of Russia and one was from... Nepal. He wasn't like the others. He was a college student, and actually speaks English. You can listen to his post-capture interview here:

https://nitter.net/GloOouD/status/1731807533839294714#m

He had run out of money for school and had signed up to get $2000 a month. He got $40 in the month-and-a-half before he was captured. He says there's over 4000 Nepalese in the Russian ground forces.

And today Nepal arrested 10 men who were recruiting these mercenaries for Russia.

https://nitter.net/MamedovGyunduz/status/1732755396161417722#m

Russia may be doing this because of a manpower shortage. Russia is a criminal state, but also a very bureaucratic one. That makes for a weird combination. A Russian isn't sent to war without signing a contract, and while officials will lie, cheat, threaten, and harangue it's citizens to get them to sign, they need to sign to be sent to the front. That includes the annual conscription class.

But the contract is for a set time. Due to the war lasting so long, one French war observer estimates that number of Russians hitting the end of their contracts plus casualties is greater than the number of new Russians signing the contract, so the Russian army is slowly dwindling. This is conjecture based on a few published numbers that we have no idea are based in fact, but it does explain Russian behavior here and in other places (like Serbia and Republika Srpska).

 

A brief word about those contracts. They are not what they once were. At the beginning of the war they gave the contracted lots of rights. They had regular leave. They could literally refuse to go on any particular mission without repercussion. Putin signed a decree that got rid of most of those rights. No more leave because many that went never came back. Refusal now results in being forced to dig a deep pit while being beaten, and when you are done you freeze in the pit until you decide to fight.

But we do know that people who reach the end of the contract are going home and not held to it indefinitely, and we know it in the worst way possible. There is a mini crime wave going on as former murderers and rapists who weren't one of the the 75% casualties, reached the end of their contracts, and got their pardon are now free and committing crimes again. There is not one, but two cases of cannibals being set free and then being arrested again for killing and eating their victims.

 

I would assume these signed a new contract, as nowhere a cannibal buffet all you can eat than on the frontline.

 

I guess "Electrozavod" roughly translates to Electrical Place?

 

Sometimes I wonder if in journalism school they teach logic.

Day after day I keep seeing the same stupid claim perpetuated by people who I thought are not you know dumb. I feel like I am taking crazy pills

First of all I stand by my previous opinion about WSJ and WaPo.... in this case WaPo.. they suck

The claim that South Korea gave more shells to Ukraine than EU (countries and institution) combined is idiotic

How the hell can you say this with a straight face?

1. When the war started Ukraine was using 152 mm shells so the NATO countries gave Ukraine millions of those. Now who exactly bought them and which countries gave them it is all a blur but we do know Ukraine fired millions so for sure at least a few hundred thousands where from EU as Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia among others are EU and they gave maaany shells

2. Fine let say they only meant 155mm: - Kuleba said EU (not EU countries) gave Ukraine 300k since March and SK gave 330k. So that means that between when the war started and March 2023 Ukraine received less than 30k from EU countries stocks?

3. In the meantime reuters said Ukraine received 480k since March

I also hate the dunking on EU by many many commentators

And considering EU paid for so many weapons for Ukraine that some countries currently brag about and is by far the biggest financial contributor (as in giving Ukraine money) while millions of Ukrainians are living in EU countries on their dime I think people need to pipe down on the whole EU is a disgrace.

 

This greasy looking Coke head wants to stop Ukrainian aggression against Russia … in Ukraine.


https://www.rawstory.com/don-trump-jr-loses-it/

 

Let’s see Yakov Smirnoff turn THAT into a joke.

 

It might also be not counting shells bought from other nations. I know early in the war the West was buying up all the world's "excess" shells to send to Ukraine. If EU nations paid for them, it should count as EU shells. England was paying for Pakistani production, but I guess they aren't "EU".

 

I’ve been admonished suggesting this course of action, being called naive and legally illiterate.

It’s war. Did Putin consult legal norms when he sent his troops to march towards Kyiv?