Well, who dragged their feet about the delivery of more complex weapons, may I ask? Seeing US and Europe prevaricating, constantly second-guessing how not to provoke Putin too much, while Russia is fighting with no holds barred, with the predicable result of Ukrainians dying in droves, is one of the most disgusting things I have ever seen in politics. Second, do the imbeciles in the White House and Congress understand US is literally playing with the fate of many of its alliances at stake? America already ended with an egg on its face in Afghanistan, but, in that case, a reasonable argument can be made that the US Armed Forces can't play bodyguard to a corrupt Afghan government forever. But in Ukraine we have the most just war America was ever confronted with (even to a greater extent than WW2, because now America is not allied with Stalin), as clear a case of aggression as it could ever be. We also have a people overwhelmingly willing to fight if they are given the means, with an effective and popular government in place. America also has a golden opportunity to destroy the threat of an expansionist Russia at least for a generation. So, instead of opening up the floodgates of support for Ukraine, what does the American government do? Haggle like Shylock over every new bit of kit which Ukraine begs for, drags its feet until Russia has time to prepare and diminish the impact of the new weaponry and until political infighting in Washington gets the whole process bogged down and then starts wringing their hands because "bad news might be coming". Of course there is going to be bad news from Ukraine, the American (and European) policies made sure of it. So, coming back to my rhetorical question from above, if America was incapable to back up an ally as effective as Ukraine and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, why the ******** any country under threat would ever ally with the United States? Republicans (Trump included) like to big up the Chinese threat, but do they (and the Democrats) ask themselves how the defeat of Ukraine was going to look like in Taiwan? If Ukraine loses thanks to the United States, the new conventional wisdom would be that there is no point fighting a common enemy together with the United States, because the latter is going to leave you in the lurch when it starts feeling the slightest bit of pain. And, frankly speaking, it looks like it might be the truth. When Putin downplays the "decadent West", he might actually be telling the truth. Not because of the LGBT and all the crap the right-wingers obsess about, but because the populations of US and Europe, who have lived in comfort since they were born, have come to take their freedoms and prosperity for granted - and an awful lot of them are perfectly willing to see Ukraine (or any other country) burn than pay more for gas. The message will be that America backs off easily - and you bet that message will be heard loud and clear both in Moscow and in Beijing. Sure, from the perspective of a liberal pundit, Russia paid an insane price for its military adventurism - but for a dictator like Putin (or Xi) political-territorial gains matter more than human/economical losses. So if America (and Europe) don't get through their thick skulls that they can't rely against Russia on the same deterrence mechanisms they would use against a similarly democratic country and wake up to the idea that they are facing a major military threat in Eastern Europe (and a potential one in Pacific) - which they have not actually done in practice, but empty speeches don't count -, I would say they are in for a world of pain in the future. If America was incapable of supporting an ally effectively in circumstances as favorable as those from Ukraine, then when the ******** will it be? Sure, Russia/China won't pick on heavyweights like Germany or Japan, but would niggle at the most exposed, like the Baltic States or Taiwan (at least for now). If Ukraine loses, countries such as these would have to ask themselves, rightfully, whether they want to capitulate from the beginning or only after they have been bombed to bits (when the inevitable American defection occurs).
While I think it is fair to say that NATO has slow rolled the support for Ukraine, it is worth noting that Ukraine has only been a US ally for 9 years at this point and they have caught the US during a period when isolationism is starting to take over one of the political parties and the other party has a strong opposition to American hegemony. That's not to say the opposition to American hegemony is impacting Democrats support of Ukraine, but given the US's constitution giving the House control of the purse, there is only so much that Democrats can do when they don't control the House...
It looks like Poland and Ukraine were able to open one border crossing. According to the agreement details I've seen is that only empty trucks will be allowed into Poland at this border crossing, but it at least allows supplies to enter Ukraine from Poland. First 30 trucks passed through the newly opened Uhryniv-Dolhobychuv crossing on the #Ukraine-#Poland border that Kyiv hopes will unblock main land corridors amid a blockade by Polish drivers. Polish haulers main demand is to stop 🇺🇦 truckers having permit-free EU access,… pic.twitter.com/GpLb8dulHJ— Glasnost Gone (@GlasnostGone) December 4, 2023
Just like during our previous exchange about Austria, while I am describing you the consequences, you are pointing out the excuses. Ok about "he US during a period when isolationism is starting to take over one of the political parties and the other party has a strong opposition to American hegemony", but we have to realize that both Russia and China are evaluating not just NATO weapon system, but also NATO's political determination. Such academic reasoning, while technically correct, will not be of any help when US will have to decide whether to support Taiwan or let it fall to China. Or maybe that is the plan, induce Taiwan to surrender because US help can't be relied on, therefore US won't have to make the difficult decision itself? If only that was the case... It's authoritarianism which is taking over one of the political parties, because American conservatorism has started to regard the social policies of the left as a re-enactement of Sodom and, consequently, descended into some kind of religious nihilism, living in a bubble of paranoid fantasies. Yes, but Biden and his cabinet should have foreseen that. That they did not, is inexcusable. They had 21 months since the war began and the fact that Ukraine got only 100 tanks, no warplanes and no long-range weapons is an embarassment and a idiocy. The policy "Ukraine should not lose, but should not win either", if it exists, is equally idiotical, because Putin would bet he can outlast NATO and, at this pace, Ukraine will run out of soldiers first.
Let's talk about a paranoid fantasy: Ukraine losing. It is simply a fact of life that if NATO support disappeared tomorrow, Ukraine will still win the war against Russia. Conquering nations just don't win wars any more; the tools of asymmetric warfare, insurgency, and defense favor Ukraine. It would take years, maybe decades. But they would win at the cost of the collapse of the Russian state. Any permanent occupation of Ukraine would involve hundreds of thousands of Russian troops fighting a sustained insurgency that would result in bankrupting the Russian state and revolutions around the country. NATO weapons merely accelerate that trajectory; the only way out for Russia is to accept defeat earlier.
So Ukraine can relax... Ukraine getting out of this like an European Afghanistan is no victory either. And neither is having a decade-long insurgency right-next on the borders of NATO. And your scenario depends on two factors: - whether the Ukrainians would be willing and capable of waging an insurgency violent enough to kick the Russians out, which is not a guarantee, especially when you account for the demoralization which will inevitably occur after the defeat; - "Conquering nations just don't win wars any more; the tools of asymmetric warfare, insurgency, and defense favor Ukraine" - that is because most conquering countries cannot or are not willing to impose a Carthaginian peace on the conquered. And it is not a certainty. Soviet Union had been perfectly capable of defeating the insurgencies on their territory - the occupied peoples regained their freedom only when a political collapse occurred in the Soviet centre.
That depends on your definition of win. Will they ever get Crimea back. How much territory in the East will they regain? They held the of whole of Eastern Europe for over 3 decades, including a third of Germany.
At this point, Ukraine is not going to turn into a European Afghanistan. It's very likely to remain in this WW1 style trench warfare that slowly grinds down both militaries. The point that AB is making is that Russia will, in theory, reach a point where the casualties are too much to maintain the war and withdraw.
They fought against guerillas in Poland and the Baltic States put down rebellions in East Germany, Hungary and Czechoslovakia but you're right, it wasn't trench warfare. They also hung in in Afghanistan for 10 years.
It seems the Kerch area is getting rocked tonight. Reports of 10-15 explosions in the area. A ny attack in this area tends to get pro-Ukrainian accounts excited about attacks on the bridge, but there are also a number of other military targets in the area and they get hit fairly frequently.
The Soviets also had an ideological project with broad, ardent support in these places as well. There is no support for Russia in Ukraine; 2014 showed that.
A tweet that shows why Ukrainian and Western officials were wrong about how to conduct the war. Based on the Russian wars in Afghan War and first Chechen War, Ukraine and Western officials expected there to be a casualty number that Russia would give up. In the Afghan and Chechen wars, Russia “gave up” after about 14,000 KIA. Depending on whose numbers you use, Russia is 10-20 times that amount now and they are showing no signs of giving up.. The Soviet Union lost about 15,000 soldiers dead in Afghanistan over 10 years. In the First Chechen war, the number of Russian casualties amounted to 5,000-14,000 in almost two years (estimates differ). In both cases, USSR/Russia acknowledged their defeat and left (with…— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 5, 2023 One thing that I think is that Putin views this as an existential threat to his regime. Now that the war has started, there is no casualty figure that would cause him to withdraw from Ukraine because it would start the end of his regime. It is also understandable why he thinks that. The loss in Afghanistan is viewed by many as the final straw that brought down the Soviet Union and the loss in Chechnya brought down Boris Yeltsin’s government. At this point, it may be safe to say that Putin is in this war until he is removed from office, or Russia “wins”.
Ukraine becoming closer to the west and more democratic was always a threat to Putin's regime and his idea of what Russia should be. An improving democratic Ukraine gives Russians the same ideas. That's why the 2014 revolution in Ukraine was probably a tipping point for him. So for sure, this is an existential threat to him.
Speaker Johnson has tied Ukrainian funding to passing immigration reform, which is something that has been tied up for years as Republicans and Democrats are miles apart on immigration. Johnson mentions HR2 NEW: @SpeakerJohnson in a letter to White House says that “supplemental Ukraine funding is dependent upon enactment of transformative change to our nation’s border security laws.”First reported by @PunchbowlNews Full letter: pic.twitter.com/nLRmiIsK9y— Ryan Nobles (@ryanobles) December 5, 2023 This article is from a month ago, but it is basically the same position Johnson is taking now and why tying Ukrainian funding to the Republican parties preferred reform likely dooms funding for Ukraine. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...d-likely-doom-aid-to-ukraine/?sh=5fc008a62b81
A day after a friendly visit by US officials, and weeks after a leak revealed how massive Russian money laundering operations in that nation were, Cyprus as agreed to stop all financial transactions involving rubles. https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/12/...sali-ostanovit-vse-operatsii-s-rublem-a115275 (Russian language) They say better late than never, but this is stretching that a bit.
Basically, US rolled up, told Cyprus they were about to destroy their banking industry with sanctions and Cyprus flinched.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67636302 Nothing really new here. "Confidence in victory has become a bit thinner than it was a year ago," says Iryna, who is with her husband Oleksandr on Kontraktova Square in the Ukrainian capital. She starts to cry, recalling life before Russia's full-scale invasion. "We're walking now on this square, remembering how we celebrated new year here a few years ago; there was a symphony orchestra playing here and it was so beautiful. I'd hate to think the mood of the general population begins to change and the inevitability of a stalemate becomes status quo, which in turn, signals for some type of peace talks with Russia.
In order to get around the blockade on the Polish border by Polish truckers, Ukraine has started to put the trucks on trains, moving them across the border, and then unloading the trucks to head on to their destinations.. I'd imagine it is only a matter of time before Polish truckers start to blockade the rail depots/rail as well. Ukrainians found a way to solve the problem on the border with Poland pic.twitter.com/V9WlNohqXc— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) December 6, 2023
Ilya Kiva used to be a member of the Ukrainian parliament. He was conveniently in Spain when Russia invaded, and immediately voiced support for the invasion and became a Russian propagandist and was a frequent guest on Russian TV. He lived in Russia until yesterday when he was found dead in his apartment. The Ukraine Secret Service claims responsibility.
As it becomes more and more apparent that Republicans will block funding for Ukraine, there is an increasing amount of jubilation among pro-Russian social media and pro-Ukrainian social media is going the other direction. This is even showing up in general Ukrainian society and even on the front lines. The troops are still fighting and want to defend their country, but morale is reportedly dropping as they are increasingly feeling like the US and EU are abandoning them.