In 6 months? No. The West needs to step up support for Ukraine significantly if there is to be a quick victory.. since the West is piecemealing support, it’s more likely to measure in years and to be because Russia withdraws or Ukraine accepts the loss of the occupied regions.
Or not at all, because the West gives up on support, I guess. That's almost the last thing I wanted to hear. But thank you for being honest. I hate this world so, so much.
Anything good for Ukraine in that time frame is going to have to happen inside Russia itself. There's no reason to expect something because we see precious few signs of collapse, but such things usually come out of the blue.
Bootsy Demands French Enter War; Loss of New York spells Certain Doom for American rebels in winter of 1777
I've studied a fair few wars and aside from a handful of conflicts like the Six-Day War or the War of the Pacific, there simply isn't historical precedent for success on the scale you demand. You artificially set a timescale that no modern army is capable of, and then get frustrated when it doesn't pan out accordingly. I was taught the basics of the new Spider-Man playstation game and I tried to stop an armed bank robbery after doing a few swings (like, four swings). I died! Why didn't my friend teach me better! Go look at history. If we gave the Ukrainians fighter jets last year, they still have to fight on flat terrain against an army twice their size. If volunteers the world over joined up by tens of thousands the Russians still have thousands of artillery pieces. I've said this to you plenty but repetition helps retention: there is no historical precedent for Ukraine winning quickly, and it may very well be that a swift Russian defeat is not safer for Ukrainians in the long run. I looked up the War of the Pacific; it was a clear Chilean victory but was five years long!
Katerina Tikhonova, one of Putin's daughters, has become co-owner of Geoskan, Russia's largest factory for the manufacture of military drones. No matter how holy this war is for Putin, he's always got to get his slice.
I wish I had the disdain for your area of expertise that you have for mine. What is your career, so I can quickly research an article on it and then hold rigid and incorrect beliefs about it forever.
While I agree on your overall post, I do think that the "piecmealing" support have helped shape the current war reducing the options for the UAF. Slowing our support helped Russia and they got the opportunity to mine the hell out of the south and east; and without air and/or arty superiority it is a greater task for the UAF. Modern tanks, IFV, ATACMS, planes/trainig, and more should have been provided earlier, thus giving more options for Ukraine. They could have blown out the kerch bridge by now with better weapons/systems. (Thanks to Poland for giving away their sovient tanks and planes so early). I am pretty sure Ukraine Forces are very creative with what they have. Their use of drones (even maritime ones) is exceptional. But with more resources they could have done some more damage by now. I agree that by the looks of it this is going to last years. And thousands or even millions of ukranians will be dead by then.
I don't disagree. I just ask that every poster here consider what it looks like when a nuclear-armed regime collapses along with its army. I'm not sure posters here properly rate the risk of Putin using nuclear weapons on Ukraine and his own population to stay in power. I also don't think a rapid retreat of Russian forces -- largely intact -- back to 2013 borders gives Ukraine the security it desires. There are very good reasons to suspect that a slow collapse of Russia is in Ukraine's long term benefit. That means a lot of casualties today. There's no easy "if we do X it all turns out okay" answer here. Please stop pretending it exists.
Exactly! Kofman and others have been talking about this a lot. Even if Ukraine is quite successful, where is the off-ramp?
I think there is a solid "it depends" on this. Getting Ukraine back to its 2013 borders means that they can start the process of joining NATO and the EU and get Western businesses and troops into the country to help with reconstruction and security. There's also a number of security agreements between Ukraine and NATO countries that are triggered as soon as the war ends. Once Western troops are on Ukraine's borders with Russia, that pretty much ends Russia's threat to Ukraine, IMHO. There's a very, very slim chance of Russia YOLOing, of course, but its unlikely they would attack troops from NATO countries in Ukraine.. That being said, a collapsing nuclear power that is involved in a civil war would be scary as sh*t.
Well, if it were militarily able to attack Russia in a substantive way, it would also presumably have the military capacity to dislodge Russia from Ukraine at a much faster rate that we've seen in 2023.
They now have their own long range larger warhead drone similar to the one Russia got from Iran. They are now using them in a tit-for-tat strategy - every time Russia launches a wave against Ukraine, Ukraine launches one back into Russia. Only Ukraine's are aimed at military-related targets and hit more often. So far there has been one wave each, and now nothing for a while. This means Ukraine's tactic might be working - maybe Russia didn't like the retaliation and is thinking before launching another wave.
Again, you misread my posts. I'm not disagreeing with anyone's analysis, not in the tiniest bit. I'm just trying to find some reason to want to wake up tomorrow and being sad that there isn't one. That's not anyone here's fault, not at all, but it's not something I can possibly be happy about when I feel this bad. HTH.
Okay, I get that, so if it helps... Ukraine has taken this as an opportunity to really revitalize itself and think through its political institutions. Everyone will have served in the military which will unify the country the same way the US/UK did after WW1/WW2. It's very likely that this will unite the country into something much more powerful than any Ukrainian state in centuries.
Not really, as evidenced by Wagner being able to walk around Russia while only being attacked by helicopters and warplanes, pretty much all of Russia's ground units are in Ukraine at this point. Moving units into Russia would force Russia to withdraw some of their troops from the front lines in order to defend Russia's borders and maybe even a few roaming units to try and stop Ukrainian saboteurs.
This hasn't happened in awhile, but a Russian Major General was reportedly killed today when the vehicle he was riding in hit a mine. Preliminary information came out that Russian Major General Vladimir Vasilyevich Zavadsky, (former) Commander of the Taman Division and deputy of the 14th Army Corps has been killed, reportedly blown up by a mine today. Needs further confirmation. pic.twitter.com/BMmwITHcvk— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) November 28, 2023