WOTR had an interesting short podcast on the state of affairs tldr; seems Wagner paramilitary were sacced at Bakhmut for lack of any ability to do more. Despite the epic fail, that brought time to rebuild the proper military units for whatever Russia's offensive in Donbas will be. Ukraine are also trying to reconstitute for a proper spring offensive. Unclear how much of a price they paid for Bakhmut but they didn't really have any other possibilities. In general Russia are happy with that kind of attritional conflict where they swap lots of low quality infantry to wear down Ukraine's better ones. It's unclear who will go on the offensive first, or what kind of offensive each side can manage.
Oh and Trump has a peace plan but he won't tell anyone what it is because he'd rather thousands keep dying This is the American leadership Europe is supposed to place great trust in
Sometimes I wonder if Muskovich, Sacks and co can really believe this nonsense but then I see what they are posting about Covid vaxx These people seem to live in a total red pilled bubble
Ha, anybody watched the Rvssian internal propagandamachine who televised the doomsday "clock" with the "warning" that the west is nearing the apocalyps? Every time a major upgrade in military punch power for the Ukraine is unfolding they come with that deterrent MO. I yesterday watched for a few minutes a Dutch rightwing tv "news" talkshow, because when I zapped along a military brass was going to explain where and how the to be delivered tanks were to be used/of use for the Ukraine. One of the guests talked about Europe talking about winning the war as a goal, while he's saying the USA are in a different direction, to end the war soon. He quoted American think tanks advicing the US government doing that like Rank something. Now this was a rightwing network with dubious opinions, so I have big questionmarks with those remarks being true or that's selective quoting for pushing your agenda.
My mind still boggles on how a failed ex president with a failed attempt at becoming a dictator. A subversive accolade of Putin, yet still manages to get the media to take him seriously.
Because the Israeli planes took off from Azerbaijan (allegedly), it looks like retaliation. Either by a lone gunman or State sponsored. Dude in the white is brave AF Video of the attack on the #Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran. #Iran #Embassy pic.twitter.com/SPWELL2jLz— Ali Hajizade (@AHajizade) January 27, 2023
Wasn't the conservative here telling us that Trump was tougher on Russia than Biden or the Democrats.
Unless the West plans to sanction nations that are currently unsanctioned who "officially" declared neutrality, their position is pragmatic and in their best interest. Whether a new currency succeeds and global south nations buys into it or not is an entire other debate. All we know right now is that those currencies backed by commodities are coming. From their perspective, their issues have been falling on deaf ears already - I posted the latest round of UN votes regarding the Global South denouncing the unilateral use of sanctions as an example. Also, the Indian External Affairs ministry articulated what most of those nations feels towards Europe Theoretically, If BRICS were to allow all the applicants and form BRICS+, the block would represent over half the global population, 60% of global gas, 45% of global oil reserves and 40% of global GDP. Their basket of commodities would be backing their currency which would be required to acquire them. We killed Gaddafi for less than that - of course it matters. Another article from Credit Suisse Great power conflict puts the dollar’s exorbitant privilege under threat | Financial Times (ft.com) and the Chinese Renminbi
Russians are now cyber-attacking our hospitals https://www.urdupoint.com/en/world/dutch-cybersecurity-contractor-accuses-pro-ru-1634008.html
Do you have any understanding how currency markets work and what it takes to become a reserve currency? Look, I'm not against the US dollar losing that privilige, as they let the rest of the world pay by way of the reserve currency status for their financial misbehaviour. But there's a difference between wanting something and stating it is happening, like you do. Now add for those BRICSabracs their GNP and compare that with the total of the EU, USA, Japan and the common wealth countries. To be able to look the EURO/USdollar in the eyes, those countries need one single currency. Not gonna happen. Suppose Brasil from now on wants it's coffee, oil, timber, bananas etc paid for in Brasilian Reals only. So what has changed from the EU pov? Nothing. To pay for the goods the EU companies need to buy Reals, so Brasil gets a load of €€€ in exchange for their Reals. So Brasil still has euros, but now with an inefficient extra step. The real test is whether other countries accept the currencies of those bricabrac countries for their goods or that they demand payment in €€€/$$$. That whole thing about wanting to be paid in their own currencies mean shit.
Latest on the diplomatic front Defense ministers of Hungary and Austria confirmed that they would not supply weapons to Kyiv - Teller Report As discuss earlier - both Iran and Saudi Arabia applied to BRICS, trying to resolve their issues would be the next logical step Bin Salman urged Baghdad to arrange face-to-face meeting between Saudi, Iranian FMs: Iraqi FM (presstv.ir) Fernandez says after meeting with Scholz that Argentina and Latin America will not send arms to Ukraine (msn.com) On another front - it looks like the war in Syria where the Russians are also involved could end soon if the Kurds agrees to be part of Syria without their own states - which would be acceptable to Turkey. This could force the US out of the country. I also saw online that Iran could be invited. Erdogan Offers Syria-Türkiye-Russia Trilateral Meeting | News | teleSUR English Press reports: Kurdish State in Syria Impossible, Kurds Admit U.S. Stabbed Them - The Syrian Observer Increase cooperation between Iran and Russia strengthening the case that they are actively providing military assistance 🇮🇷🛬🇷🇺Again visit of an Iranian IL-76 transport plane to Moscow pic.twitter.com/ZlFDAxJAa1— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) January 29, 2023 Financial/sanction front 52 Iranian banks and 106 Russian banks will be connected through the Russian equivalent of the SWIFT financial transfer system,known as System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS) Iran and Russia Sign Deal to Link Banks | Financial Tribune How Russia dodges oil sanctions on an industrial scale | The Economist German industry to pay 40% more for energy than pre-crisis - study says | Reuters
BRICSabracs - You must speak French! The new currencies getting reserve status - I share your pessimism BRICS overtaking the dollar or the Euro but such a currency would still affect the current financial system and accentuate dedollarisation which is already under way.
Shocking news - Biden said US will not provide F16 to Ukraine JUST IN - Biden: U.S. will not provide F-16 jets to Ukraine.— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) January 30, 2023
A certain amount of dedollarization has already taken place with the introduction of the Euro. China for instance happily swapped a considerable amount of their dollar reserves for euros. The Euro however in 5 decades I've been following/studying international currencies, is the only one that has been able to put a dent in the status of the US dollar as a reserve currency. In the 70ies the hype was on with the rise of Japan as an economical powerhouse that the yen soon would challenge the dollar. Never came even close to that. Only a collapse of the USA as an economical powerhouse would put the wheels of dedollarization in motion. However then the world as a whole has a problem that eclipses anything else.
Unless something changes, I would expect Ukraine to pull out of Bakhmut at some point in the next 2-3 weeks. The 2 major supply lines are under Russian fire control, but there are a number of smaller, less efficient supply lines that are open. If the Ukrainians aren't able to not only stop the slow advances that Russia is making, but reverse them, holding Bakhmut is going to be increasingly difficult.
It’s time to look into Trumps treason again following the news of the corruption of the FBI agent McGonigal in NYC https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-specter-of-2016 To this observer of Ukraine, it was apparent that Russia was backing Trump in much the way that it had once backed Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, in the hopes of soft control. Trump and Yanukovych were similar figures: nihilistic, venal, seeking power to make or shield money. This made them vulnerably eager partners for Putin. And they had the same chief advisor: the American political consultant Paul Manafort. Russian soft control of Trump did not require endless personal meetings between the two principals. It just required mutual understanding, which was abundantly on display during the Trump presidency: think of the meeting between Putin and Trump in Helsinki in 2018, when the American president said that he trusted the Russian one and the Russian president said that he had supported the American one as a candidate. The acknowledgement of mutual debts was obvious already in 2016: Russian media talked up Trump, and Trump talked up Putin.
There's an article on the failing NY Times that touches on how the first batches of Wagner inmate cannon fodder are now reaching the end of their 6 month engagement contracts (those that have not been killed, captured, surrendered or simply walked away, of course), and starting to trickle back into mother Russia with all sorts of PTSD, a history of crime and/or violent behavior, no job prospects, freedom documents of dubious quality and best of all, weapons training and experience. My guess is a huge chunk of them will find their way back to prison in short order, which means they can get reused in Ukraine at Putin's discretion.