Ukraine v Russia II

Not sure where this is going but it's very unlikely that the Global South will follow on this.

Ukraine's President Zelenskiy calls for the EU's Russian oil price cap to be set at $30 per barrel, not the proposed $60 or $70, per Bloomberg.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) November 25, 2022

 

At any given time 1/3rd of all western artillery in Ukraine is not working. The US is building a new repair base in Poland. This is more of a problem with the self-propelled versions - we know that for a while after the Kharkiv offensive pretty much all the PzH2000's were out of action and even today they are regular visitors to western nations for repair. Partially this is because having small numbers of a maintenance-heavy vehicle type is still a big logistical problem for Ukraine.

But the main reason is that these are all very heavily used. Ukraine is sending thousands of shells a day. Even with their more careful aiming than the Russian style, they are outshelling the Russians on most fronts now.

 

The Bakhmut front is looking a little familiar, unfortunately.

 

Winter is coming

https://twitter.com/warnerta/status/1596017735011651584

 

If only Zelenskyy had dragons, this could be over in just under 60 minutes.

 

Speaking of Bakhmut and related to that picture, for those that are so inclined, there are a lot of videos out showing the Russian "lines" near Bahkmut and the state of the soldiers there and let me tell you, it is not good. One video I saw had dozens of dead Russians that were just left where they fell. In other videos, the Russians are huddled up in would generously be called a crater, a Ukrainian drone drops a grenade onto them and they didn't even move until after the grenade explodes and, even then, it was very lethargic. One speculation that I'm seeing is that the Russians don't have any winter gear, don't have any shelter/heat, and are on the edge of dying from exposure and they simply can't react to the grenade being dropped on them.

 

TBF, I'm not sure that number is unusual for a wartime situation. The big issue here is that because NATO's doctrine is airpower first vs. artillery first, NATO's artillery units just aren't designed to maintain the workload that Ukraine is demanding from them. It also has to do with the fact that NATO was giving Ukraine hardware before they had the maintenance known how. As a result, they have to be sent out of Ukraine to Poland to get repaired, rather than having the maintenance be done in Ukraine.

 

This is a rather blasphemistic cartoon.

 

You need help...

 

No, but when they have to be shipped across the entire nation, and then switched to a different train at the border, and then further shipped to a repair place, it means that they are out of service longer. I don't know if it's a problem that can be fixed white the war is going on.

 

Spare us the handwringing

 

He might. But, the guy actually is a combat vet and trained Ukrainians. So... I'm not going to psychoanalyze him from my keyboard.

Indeed.

 

"Saint Michael the Archangel, defend us in battle. Be our protection against the wickedness and snares of the devil; May God rebuke him, we humbly pray; And do thou, O Prince of the Heavenly Host, by the power of God, thrust into hell Satan and all evil spirits who wander through the world for the ruin of souls. Amen."

 

General Hertling with an analysis of the challenges Ukraine faces now that they have completed their late summer/early fall offensive and while they wait for the ground to freeze for a winter offensive.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1596929670632869888.html

basically, the road forward is hard. The Donbas region has settled into trench warfare, which Hertling claims is the hardest type of operation and something Ukraine hasn’t really practiced yet. At the other end of the front, the Dnipro might as well be a wall and would require a major amphibious operation to complete..

 

ha!
dragons by themselves are not enough, where is he gonna find anybody with enough Targarian blood to ride them?!

 

Really good thread by Defmon on the importance of Luhansk as a supply depot and why it is important that Ukraine be given longer range missiles for the HIMARS.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1596872759950594048.html

The threader app strips images and this thread is very heavy on images, so if you are so inclined, here’s the start if the thread in Twitter.

🧵A dive in to the importance of Luhansk as a logistics hub for the Russians.

I will provide some though on why Luhansk city is a key location for the Russian logistics apparatus with the help of some very high resolution satellite images and a few maps. pic.twitter.com/YMCxYbAJjo

— Def Mon (@DefMon3) November 27, 2022

 

To do a trench war, don't you need reliable supply routes to those trenches? How secure are the russian ones?

 

Only if you intend to supply your infantry.If you've filled your front line with conscripts and protestors,you let them starve and focus on building your mobile forces.

 

A solid "it depends".

Due to the damage to the Crimean Bridge and HIMARS/artillery, Crimea and southern Ukraine have been effectively cut off except for a single, poorly built road immediately on the coast. Russia is in the process of repairing the bridge and upgrading that road, but mud season is making it very difficult for them to upgrade the road. The bridge repairs are proceeding at pace and I believe one of the road bridges will be repaired later this month and the rest of the road bridge and the rail bridge will be repaired by March.

The Donbas region is a completely different thing. The major railway between Belgorod and Luhansk has been taken over by Ukraine, but there are railways that go through Russian territory and approach Luhansk from the East which are outside of Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS range. So they still have rail resupply in the East, it's just longer than it was prior to the Kharkiv counteroffensive.

 

The Ukrainians need Colonel Hogan and his wacky crew of misfits to blow up the railroad.

 

They'll need a point man!