UK General Election 2017

Discussion in 'Elections' started by The Biscuitman, Dec 11, 2014.

  1. The Biscuitman

    The Biscuitman Member+

    Jul 4, 2007
    Club:
    Reading FC
    6 months to go and the rhetoric has certainly changed over the last month or so. The election campaigns have well and truly started.

    first off I just dont see either Labour the Tories getting a majority, therefore another hung parliament. Libs wont get the same seats as last time so UKIP and the SNP come into play.

    would Cameron really strike a deal with UKIP and keep 'the nasty party' true to it's nickname?

    A long long way to go but I can see Labour & the SNP striking a deal (contrary to what Salmond said this week) and forming a government between them.
     
  2. White/Blue_since1860

    proudly banned from 5 sub forums
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Miliband, unagitated and in his total lack of charisma, reminds of Angie Merkel. He could be the right solution for UK politics. Contra is he's rather pro EU and I want the UK to leave so, Im all for Dave.
     
  3. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Labour have a chance at a majority, but will need to work for it. As it stands I think they'll fall short by a few.
    The Conservatives will struggle. They're going to lose seats to Labour (as there will be a swing) and are hit hardest by UKIP. They're best hope is that some Lib Dem seats fall to them while the Yellow/Red marginals stay yellow.
    UKIP won't win enough seats to make them a factor in any potential coalition.
    The SNP can expect a decent amount of seats and while they can hurt Labour's chance of a majority, Labour losses to them do not benefit the Tories as they cannot support any Conservative government.
    What will be interesting is if Clegg loses his seat (he only had a 3% lead in the last polling). The Lib Dems deputy leder is retiring, Danny Alexander is almost certain to lose his seat so any potential coalition negotiations would fall to Farron and Cable, who are the left of the party.

    Currently, I think we'll see a Labour coalition government with the SNP supporting unless Clegg gets ousted, in which case a Farron lead Lib Dems will be more appealing to them.
     
  4. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Labour would easily be winning if they had a competent leader. Milband inspires no confidence and has no charisma. UKIP and a Tory coalition or unity ticket can save the UK.
     
  5. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Are the Lib Dems as royally f**ked as this guy has them?
     
  6. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    How's a UKIP Conservative coalition going to work? Any UKIP gains are almost certainly going to be from the Tories, which means that the Conservatives are going to need to win at least 20 more seats from other parties than they lose to UKIP. Where are these gains going to come from?
     
  7. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Not likely. The electoral system (which they've campaigned against for as long as I can remember) will likely see them retain 25 seats minimum. Ironic really.
     
  8. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Unless UKIP only targets winnable Labour areas and declines to run in tory areas or can they run on a unity ticket throughout the country. UKIP is essetential the tories right wing but they hurt labour just as much.
     
  9. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Which seats would these be?

    [​IMG]

    http://www.cityam.com/1414703450/uk...one-people-whose-votes-nigel-farage-needs-win

    Rubbish. They are going to hammer the Tories in marginals.

    [​IMG]

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/02/24/where-ukip-gets-its-support/
     
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  10. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
  11. Colm

    Colm Member

    Aug 17, 2004
    UK
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    http://ukpollingreport.coer.uk/blog/archives/9102

    latest opinion polls show

    Opinium/Observer: Labour 36%, Conservative 29%, UKIP 16%, Liberal Democrat 6%, Greens 5%

    YouGov/Sunday Times: Labour 34%, Conservative 32%, UKIP 15%, Greens 8%, Liberal Democrat 6%
     
  12. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Patheic numbers for Labour. There is a good reason why they are so despised.
     
  13. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You have me on ignore, but can someone else ask Waliatiger why "leading" means "pathetic?"
     
  14. Colm

    Colm Member

    Aug 17, 2004
    UK
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    According to him they should far more clear in the lead, to be fair their lead would be greater if they had a better leader but if they get back in power after only one term in opposition then they've done quite well given that they were in power for 13 years prior to being kicked out in 2010.
     
  15. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Miliband cannot win. Cameron is a strong leader even if his policies are terrible he crushes ED in that department. UKIP numbers will collapse and the Tory right will come home by Election day.
     
  16. White/Blue_since1860

    proudly banned from 5 sub forums
    Jan 4, 2007
    Bum zua City
    Club:
    TSV 1860 München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Do people always vote for whoever they see as the stronger leader? I dont think so. Since the 2005 election major media outlets have been complaining about the lack of charisma and at the beginning also about the total lack of leadership of Angie. She's been running the whole continent and quite comfortably won a third term last year. I think the times of total alpha leaders in top positions are over.
     
  17. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    [​IMG]

    Let's hope so.
     
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  18. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Prehaps because of German history and a certain charismatic strong leader brought ruin to Gemany germans might be hesitant about that. That is the opposite especially for Brits and Americans. Miliband by appearances and demeanor alone inspires no confidence or has any leadership qualities. Cameron for all his faults and elitism does project a strong image.
     
  19. Colm

    Colm Member

    Aug 17, 2004
    UK
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Well in the UK people actually vote for their local MP and the party and not really for the leader unlike in America but a good leader can help. People really should vote their preferred policies rather than charisma and so on.
     
  20. lanman

    lanman BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 30, 2002
    Yougov did some polling on it recently (I'll try to find it, but can't guarantee as only on my phone for the short term) and fewer than 5% had leadership qualities as a factor in how they voted. Most said either the party they identified with most or the specfic policies they agreed with was the most important factor - these two covered 80% of voters.

    The whole leadership element is complete bollocks - this isn't a presidential election as has been pointed out, it's a consituency election and local issues can play a huge role.
    Callaghan had massive leads over Thatcher in the build up to the 79 election over who appeared the stronger leader. I also think people underestimate Miliband's holding together of the Labour party. It's usual for them to descend into massive infighting following a loss, but other than a few from the right of Progress, they've largely stayed united.

    There hasn't been a single poll since the 2012 Budget which would give the Tories either a majority or a working coalition with the Lib Dems. Labour's lead looks to be growing following the Autumn Statement, and even Yougov's dodgy weightings can't hide it.
     
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  21. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My sensors tell me you are British. I have a question to ask you about UKIP. Are they as vehemently racist and xenophobic as the media here report?
     
  22. Colm

    Colm Member

    Aug 17, 2004
    UK
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    They are definitely xenophobic and they tend to have a lot of closet racists inside they're party.
     
  23. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Okay. Next question: is their coalition stable like the Conservatives and Labour, or susceptible to defection like the Lib Dems and nationalist parties?
     
  24. Colm

    Colm Member

    Aug 17, 2004
    UK
    Club:
    Tottenham Hotspur FC
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    I'm not sure what you mean by this, do you mean that their party members or supporters could defect to other parties?
     
  25. Waliatiger

    Waliatiger Member+

    Jul 1, 2013
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    UKIP hits a nerve with middle england people who feel that the EU, Immigration and the big 3 parties are hurting them or are not listening to their concerns. They feel they are losing their country so UKIP is a protest vote.
     

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