Alert: UEFA to trial ABBA during KTFM

Discussion in 'Referee' started by juneau-AK, May 3, 2017.

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  1. juneau-AK

    juneau-AK Member

    Apr 15, 2017
    #1 juneau-AK, May 3, 2017
    Last edited: May 3, 2017
    So I just learnt that Uefa is trialling a change in how the kicks from the mark are staged. This will happen at the current Womens U17 championships that are being played in Europe.

    Here is a report about it - http://bbc.in/2pHbs6f

    ABBA is how teams A and B will take the kicks.
    The reasoning is that currently the team kicking second has to play catch-up. No more.
    It borrowed the strategy that tennis uses.
     
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  2. Skandal!!!

    Skandal!!! Member

    Legia Warszawa
    Poland
    Apr 26, 2017
    I read about it - total insanity... Plenty of jokes about the idea already, like:

    1. Let them shoot at the same time, one team on one goal, another on another.
    2. Put goals next to each other, and let them shoot together.

    I do not like this idea.
     
    juneau-AK repped this.
  3. chwmy

    chwmy Member+

    Feb 27, 2010
    Well, it makes perfect sense:

    When all is said and done,
    Take a chance,
    and
    The winner takes it all.
     
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  4. juneau-AK

    juneau-AK Member

    Apr 15, 2017
    You have that goal - that is so right on the spot! Perfect dig. Just made my day!
     
  5. chwmy

    chwmy Member+

    Feb 27, 2010
  6. wh1s+1eR

    wh1s+1eR Member

    Apr 23, 2017
    now, goal + 1.
     
  7. fairplayforlife

    fairplayforlife Member+

    Mar 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    All I can say... IMG_0328.JPG
     
  8. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Nassau County, NY
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's what NCAA Football overtime does, although the average amount of penalty kicks for one team is higher than the average amount of NCAA Football overtimes.
     
  9. Thezzaruz

    Thezzaruz Member+

    Jun 20, 2011
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Sweden
    I think it is a great idea for a trial. Possibly takes away a big unfairness of KFTPM through minimal changes to procedure.
     
  10. kayakhorn

    kayakhorn Member+

    Oct 10, 2011
    Arkansas
    We needed KFTPM to decide a VB match last night after a very good game. The team that kicked first won. Obviously that proves that a change needs to be made. ;)

    Seriously, the team kicking first never missed so you could see the tension ramping up in the opposing players. I can see value in trying ABBA.

    Plus I like their music. :oops:
     
  11. fairplayforlife

    fairplayforlife Member+

    Mar 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ok so I'm confused, if the team kicking first has the advantage why was there a law change to give the winner of the toss the choice to kick first or second a few years back? I'd say almost all the teams I do choose to kick second as well.

    Just wondering where the perception of a benefit comes from with regard to kicking first.
     
  12. kayakhorn

    kayakhorn Member+

    Oct 10, 2011
    Arkansas
    Apparently someone looked at the results and determined that statistically speaking the team that kicks first wins 60% of the time. The assumption must be that as teams learn this bias, winning a 50-50 coin toss will turn into a 60-40 likelihood of winning the game. Maybe the ABBA system will even the odds back up.

    In my experience (small sample size of course) teams tend to choose to go second. I imaging that may change as this 60-40 statistic becomes better known (in the absence of a different system of course).
     
  13. socal lurker

    socal lurker Member+

    May 30, 2009
    According to BBC article on the change, teams kicking first win 60% of the time. http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/39798344

    Whether that is true at youth levels is a separate question. At youth levels (especially the younger ones) the GKs may be feeling more of the pressure. As levels increase and the expectation is that every kick should score, the pressure moves far more to the kicker -- the GK can no longer be a goat but only a hero.

    I've long thought that ABBA would be more fair -- especially if the kicks goes into extra kicks. At lower levels, however, I am concerned that it is one more complication for the referees. (Yes, I know it isn't that complicated, but kicks are stressful for the referee team as well as the players.) It will be interesting to see if this goes anywhere.
     
  14. socal lurker

    socal lurker Member+

    May 30, 2009
    I'm fascinated that two of you are reporting that teams choose to go second. In my experience every sophisticated team/coach has chosen to kick first -- going back to when I played the conventional wisdom was that it was an advantage to go first. (But I don't believe there was any recent change on this -- the recent coin flip change was a flip to decide which goal to use [in the absence of a reason to use a particular goal].)
     
  15. camconcay

    camconcay Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Feb 17, 2011
    Georgia
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
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  16. kayakhorn

    kayakhorn Member+

    Oct 10, 2011
    Arkansas
    Key words

    For all I know it comes from experience with the NCAA pointy ball tie-breaking system where it really is an advantage to go second.
     
  17. socal lurker

    socal lurker Member+

    May 30, 2009
    Interesting passage from the summary:

    Finally, the authors analyzed data in which they had information on the shot outcome — was it missed by the kicker, or saved by the goalkeeper? — and found that the save rate was approximately the same between the two teams in the shootout. The difference in scoring rates in the shootout is correlated very strongly with the miss rate of the kicker. Therefore the burden of success in the shootout rests not with the goalkeeper but with the kickers selected.


    So in conclusion, the penalty kick shootout as it currently exists is biased toward the team that wins the toss, only becomes unbiased if the shootout reaches sudden-death (more than five rounds), and is less a battle between goalkeeper and striker and more one between the striker and the mass between the striker’s ears. ​

    That the difference is focused on the kicker is what many of us suspected. I was surprised to see that the advantage appears to disappear once the kicks get past the initial 5 and 5.
     
  18. fairplayforlife

    fairplayforlife Member+

    Mar 23, 2011
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ok now I feel old. I thought this was more recent. It looks like the change I was referring to was in 2003. The winner of the toss was given choice to kick 1st or second.

    I don't have my old books in front of me to see what it was prior to that. But presumably you were either forced to kick first or second for winning.

    http://www.fifa.com/about-fifa/who-we-are/the-laws/2001-2006.html
     
  19. kayakhorn

    kayakhorn Member+

    Oct 10, 2011
    Arkansas
    That surprised me too. Maybe the sample size was too low to see a statistically significant difference.
     
  20. socal lurker

    socal lurker Member+

    May 30, 2009
    I'll check my 70s Laws when I get home. IIRC, the KFTM weren't part of the Laws then, but the coin flip to choose who went first was already part of the process. It's been quite a while, but I'm pretty sure the games I reffed and played, we always had a coin flip to decide. But it's possible we were doing it wrong. (I also recall discussions about which to choose in high school, but of course that is a different rule set.)
     
  21. sulfur

    sulfur Member

    Oct 22, 2007
    Ontario, Canada
    In the "olden" days, you won the coin toss, you kicked first.
     
  22. ManiacalClown

    ManiacalClown Member+

    Jun 27, 2003
    South Jersey
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Ain't no big decision
    You know what to do
    The question is do you want to?
     
  23. Scrabbleship

    Scrabbleship Member

    May 24, 2012
    Total insanity in what way exactly?

    This is a very minor change and shouldn't be an issue at all for referees to switch to. If it improves the game in general and the "spirit of the game" (which is what IFAB is all about these days), then what is wrong with testing it out in a youth tournament?
     
  24. voiceoflg

    voiceoflg Member+

    Dec 8, 2005
  25. Skandal!!!

    Skandal!!! Member

    Legia Warszawa
    Poland
    Apr 26, 2017
    Also, as per statistics, teams dressed in Red win more often as well. Ban the Red Kits!
     
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