UEFA Euro Qualifiers - The Road to England 2021

Discussion in 'Women's International' started by Bauser, Jul 29, 2019.

  1. Bauser

    Bauser Member+

    Dec 23, 2000
    Norway
    Club:
    Fredrikstad FK
    The European Championship qualifying competition begins in a month, but the set-up is ready and we might as well start the thread early to speculate about hopes, dreams and ambitions for this new campaign as we follow the road to England 2021. As with every other Euros in recent time, we assume 2021 is going to be the biggest and best attended tournament in history.

    47 teams start the journey and will compete for 15 spots with England of course grabbing the 16th spot automatically as hosts. The qualifying competition has two groups of six teams and seven groups of five teams. The nine group winners and the three best runners-up (not counting results against the sixth-placed team) qualify directly for the Euros, while the remaining six runners-up advance to the play-offs to fight for the last three spots.

    Teams were ranked in this draw based on performances in previous campaigns:

    WWC 2015 finals + qualifiers: 20%
    Euro 2017 finals + qualifiers: 40%
    WWC 2019 qualifiers: 40%

    Pot 1 (1 - 9) FRA, GER, NED, ESP, SWE, NOR, SUI, SCO, ITA
    Pot 2 (10 - 18) AUT, DEN, ISL, BEL, RUS, WAL, UKR, FIN, CZE
    Pot 3 (19 - 27) POR, IRL, POL, ROM, SRB, SVN, HUN, BIH, BLR
    Pot 4 (28 - 36) TUR, SVK, CRO, NIR, GRE, ISR, KAZ, ALB, MDA
    Pot 5 (37 - 45) FRO, MLT, MKD, EST, MNE, GEO, LVA, LTU, AZR*, CYP*, KOS*
    (Azerbaijan, Cyprus and Kosovo share the 45th place, making it 47 teams.)

    So to the groups:

    GROUP A
    Netherlands (3)
    Russia (14)
    Slovenia (24)
    Turkey (28)
    Estonia (40)
    Kosovo (45)

    Fixture list:
    Show Spoiler

    30-08-2019: SVN - RUS
    30-08-2019: EST - NED
    30-08-2019: KOS - TUR
    -
    03-09-2019: SVN - KOS
    03-09-2019: RUS - EST
    03-09-2019: NED - TUR
    -
    04-10-2019: TUR - EST
    04-10-2019: KOS - RUS
    04-10-2019: SVN - NED
    -
    08-10-2019: TUR - SVN
    08-10-2019: EST - KOS
    08-10-2019: NED - RUS
    -
    08-11-2019: TUR - NED
    -
    12-11-2019: NED - SVN
    -
    10-03-2020: KOS - SVN
    -
    10-04-2020: KOS - NED
    10-04-2020: SVN - EST
    10-04-2020: RUS - TUR
    -
    14-04-2020: TUR - KOS
    14-04-2020: RUS - SVN
    14-04-2020: NED - EST
    -
    05-06-2020: EST - RUS
    -
    09-06-2020: RUS - KOS
    09-06-2020: EST - TUR
    -
    18-09-2020: KOS - EST
    18-09-2020: SVN - TUR
    18-09-2020: RUS - NED
    -
    22-09-2020: TUR - RUS
    22-09-2020: EST - SVN
    22-09-2020: NED - KOS

    Netherlands struggled to qualify for the World Cup. I doubt they will have much problems advancing from this group. Russia remain the highest ranked Eastern European team, and might squeeze through as runners-up.

    - o - o - o - o - o - o - o -

    GROUP B
    Italy (9)
    Denmark (11)
    Bosnia & Herzegovina (26)
    Israel (33)
    Malta (38)
    Georgia (42)

    Fixture list:
    Show Spoiler

    29-08-2019: DEN - MLT
    29-08-2019: ISR - ITA
    30-08-2019: BIH - GEO
    -
    03-09-2019: GEO - ITA
    03-09-2019: BIH - MLT
    03-09-2019: ISR - DEN
    -
    04-10-2019: DEN - BIH
    04-10-2019: MLT - ITA
    -
    08-10-2019: GEO - DEN
    08-10-2019: ITA - BIH
    -
    07-11-2019: MLT - ISR
    08-11-2019: ITA - GEO
    -
    12-11-2019: ISR - BIH
    12-11-2019: ITA - MLT
    12-11-2019: DEN - GEO
    -
    05-03-2020: MLT - GEO
    05-03-2020: BIH - ISR
    -
    10-03-2020: MLT - BIH
    10-03-2020: ISR - GEO
    -
    09-04-2020: BIH - DEN
    10-04-2020: ITA - ISR
    -
    14-04-2020: MLT - DEN
    14-04-2020: BIH - ITA
    14-04-2020: GEO - ISR
    -
    03-06-2020: GEO - MLT
    04-06-2020: DEN - ISR
    -
    09-06-2020: ITA - DEN
    -
    22-09-2020: ISR - MLT
    22-09-2020: DEN - ITA
    22-09-2020: GEO - BIH

    Italy and Denmark battle out for the group win with Italy as slight favourites. I don't expect much from the other teams.

    - o - o - o - o - o - o - o -

    GROUP C
    Norway (6)
    Wales (15)
    Belarus (27)
    Northern Ireland (31)
    Faroe Islands (37)

    Fixture list:
    Show Spoiler

    29-08-2019: FRO - WAL
    30-08-2019: NIR - NOR
    -
    03-09-2019: WAL - NIR
    03-09-2019: BLR - FRO
    -
    04-10-2019: BLR - NOR
    -
    08-10-2019: FRO - NOR
    08-10-2019: BLR - WAL
    -
    08-11-2019: NOR - NIR
    -
    12-11-2019: NIR - WAL
    -
    10-04-2020: WAL - FRO
    -
    14-04-2020: WAL - NOR
    14-04-2020: BLR - NIR
    -
    05-06-2020: NIR - BLR
    05-06-2020: NOR - FRO
    -
    09-06-2020: WAL - BLR
    09-06-2020: NIR - FRO
    -
    18-09-2020: NOR - BLR
    18-09-2020: FRO - NIR
    -
    22-09-2020: NOR - WAL
    22-09-2020: FRO - BLR

    A favourable draw for Norway who should win this, but Wales are better than four years ago when they also were in Norway's group and should secure second place.

    - o - o - o - o - o - o - o -

    GROUP D
    Spain (4)
    Czech Republic (18)
    Poland (21)
    Moldova (36)
    Azerbaijan (45)

    Fixture list:
    Show Spoiler

    30-08-2019: MDA - CZE
    -
    03-09-2019: CZE - POL
    -
    04-10-2019: ESP - AZR
    -
    08-10-2019: CZE - ESP
    -
    07-11-2019: AZR - CZE
    -
    10-11-2019: MDA - AZR
    12-11-2019: POL - ESP
    -
    07-03-2020: POL - MDA
    -
    11-03-2020: AZR - POL
    -
    09-04-2020: ESP - MDA
    10-04-2020: POL - AZR
    -
    13-04-2020: ESP - CZE
    14-04-2020: MDA - POL
    -
    05-06-2020: CZE - AZR
    -
    09-06-2020: ESP - POL
    09-06-2020: CZE - MDA
    -
    16-09-2020: AZR - MDA
    19-09-2020: MDA - ESP
    -
    22-09-2020: POL - CZE
    22-09-2020: AZR - ESP

    This is an interesting group with Poland and Czech Republic probably battling out for that second spot behind Spain. They meet already in early September and also on the very last matchday next year. Games to watch for sure.

    - o - o - o - o - o - o - o -

    GROUP E
    Scotland (8)
    Finland (17)
    Portugal (19)
    Albania (35)
    Cyprus (45)

    Fixture list:
    Show Spoiler

    30-08-2019: SCO - CYP
    02-09-2019: ALB - FIN
    -
    04-10-2019: ALB - POR
    -
    08-10-2019: FIN - ALB
    -
    07-11-2019: FIN - CYP
    08-11-2019: ALB - SCO
    -
    12-11-2019: POR - FIN
    -
    11-03-2020: CYP - ALB
    -
    09-04-2020: CYP - SCO
    10-04-2020: FIN - POR
    -
    14-04-2020: CYP - FIN
    14-04-2020: SCO - POR
    -
    05-06-2020: SCO - ALB
    05-06-2020: CYP - POR
    -
    09-06-2020: FIN - SCO
    09-06-2020: POR - CYP
    -
    18-09-2020: ALB - CYP
    18-09-2020: POR - SCO
    -
    22-09-2020: SCO - FIN
    22-09-2020: POR - ALB

    Another interesting group and the only where I can see a team from pot three as potential group winners. Portugal are a team on the rise and could upset Scotland and book direct tickets to England. I'm a bit unsure about Finland. Difficult team to predict, but I fear they will finish third here and stay home again.

    - o - o - o - o - o - o - o -

    GROUP F
    Sweden (5)
    Iceland (12)
    Hungary (25)
    Slovakia (29)
    Latvia (43)

    Fixture list:
    Show Spoiler

    29-08-2019: ISL - HUN
    -
    02-09-2019: ISL - SVK
    03-09-2019: LVA - SWE
    -
    04-10-2019: LVA - SVK
    04-10-2019: HUN - SWE
    -
    08-10-2019: SWE - SVK
    08-10-2019: LVA - ISL
    -
    08-11-2019: SVK - HUN
    -
    12-11-2019: HUN - LVA
    -
    10-04-2020: SVK - LVA
    10-04-2020: HUN - ISL
    -
    14-04-2020: SVK - ISL
    14-04-2020: SWE - HUN
    -
    04-06-2020: SVK - SWE
    04-06-2020: ISL - LVA
    -
    09-06-2020: LVA - HUN
    09-06-2020: ISL - SWE
    -
    17-09-2020: SWE- LVA
    -
    22-09-2020: SWE - ISL
    22-09-2020: HUN - SVK

    Iceland scared Germany in the WCQ, but I think Sweden will handle them and win the group. I can see Iceland as one of the best runners-up though, as none of the three Eastern European teams look strong enough to beat them.

    - o - o - o - o - o - o - o -

    GROUP G
    France (1)
    Austria (10)
    Serbia (23)
    Kazakhstan (34)
    North Macedonia (39)

    Fixture list:
    Show Spoiler

    01-09-2019: KAZ - SRB
    03-09-2019: AUT - MKD
    -
    02-10-2019: MKD - KAZ
    -
    05-10-2019: MKD - SRB
    -
    08-10-2019: KAZ - FRA
    08-10-2019: SRB - AUT
    -
    08-11-2019: MKD - AUT
    09-11-2019: FRA - SRB
    -
    12-11-2019: AUT - KAZ
    -
    06-03-2020: SRB - MKD
    -
    10-04-2020: FRA - MKD
    11-04-2020: SRB - KAZ
    -
    14-04-2020: AUT - FRA
    -
    03-06-2020: KAZ - MKD
    05-06-2020: FRA - AUT
    -
    09-06-2020: FRA - KAZ
    09-06-2020: AUT - SRB
    -
    18-09-2020: SRB - FRA
    -
    22-09-2020: MKD - FRA
    22-09-2020: KAZ - AUT

    France as group winners and Austria equally obvious number two.

    - o - o - o - o - o - o - o -

    GROUP H
    Switzerland (7)
    Belgium (13)
    Romania (22)
    Croatia (30)
    Lithuania (44)

    Fixture list:
    Show Spoiler

    29-08-2019: LTU - CRO
    -
    03-09-2019: SUI - LTU
    03-09-2019: BEL - CRO
    -
    04-10-2019: LTU - SUI
    -
    08-10-2019: ROM - BEL
    08-10-2019: SUI - CRO
    -
    08-11-2019: ROM - LTU
    08-11-2019: CRO - BEL
    -
    12-11-2019: BEL - LTU
    12-11-2019: SUI - ROM
    -
    10-04-2020: CRO - LTU
    -
    14-04-2020: BEL - SUI
    14-04-2020: CRO - ROM
    -
    05-06-2020: LTU - ROM
    -
    09-06-2020: LTU - BEL
    09-06-2020: ROM - SUI
    -
    18-09-2020: BEL - ROM
    18-09-2020: CRO - SUI
    -
    22-09-2020: SUI - BEL
    22-09-2020: ROM - CRO

    It's a toss-up between Switzerland and Belgium as group-winners. I don't think any of the other teams in the group are possible pitfalls either. It will be decided head-to-head.

    - o - o - o - o - o - o - o -

    GROUP I
    Germany (2)
    Ukraine (16)
    Rep. of Ireland (20)
    Greece (32)
    Montenegro (41)

    Fixture list:
    Show Spoiler

    31-08-2019: GER - MNE
    -
    03-09-2019: IRL - MNE
    03-09-2019: UKR - GER
    -
    05-10-2019: GER - UKR
    -
    08-10-2019: IRL - UKR
    08-10-2019: GRE - GER
    -
    06-11-2019: MNE - GRE
    -
    12-11-2019: GRE - IRL
    -
    06-03-2020: IRL - GRE
    -
    11-03-2020: MNE - IRL
    -
    10-04-2020: MNE - UKR
    11-04-2020: GER - IRL
    -
    14-04-2020: MNE - GER
    14-04-2020: UKR - GRE
    -
    03-06-2020: GRE - MNE
    05-06-2020: UKR - IRL
    -
    09-06-2020: GRE - UKR
    -
    19-09-2020: GER - GRE
    -
    22-09-2020: UKR - MNE
    22-09-2020: IRL - GER

    Germany naturally. Ukraine are no pushovers and Ireland are also strong enough to fight for a runners-up spot here.
     
  2. L'orange

    L'orange Member+

    Ajax
    Netherlands
    Jul 20, 2017
    Good work, thanks.
     
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  3. Ahem. They didnot struggle as they only lost against Norway. Struggle in my book is you really squeeze yourself through the gate, which wasnot the case. The Orange lionesses only needed a draw in their last group match, but they managed to slip on the porch, while the door was wide open to direct qualification..
     
  4. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Ouch! :x3: Group B is the one with the smallest difference in rankings between the team from pot 1 and the one from pot 2.

    Of course this was predictable, since Italy was the lowest ranked team from pot 1, but Denmark will be a tough nut to crack for them. Almost feels like Italy is actually second best in this group... :unsure: I am aware that you can qualify for the final tournament even with a 2nd place, directly or through play-offs, but I've got the feeling that Italy will need to put some hard work together to show that they weren't just a fluke at the WWC...
     
    59Amerinorsk repped this.
  5. Bauser

    Bauser Member+

    Dec 23, 2000
    Norway
    Club:
    Fredrikstad FK
    You have a selective memory, my friend. :) Netherlands scored a 93rd minute winning goal against Norway in the first game, a fluke cross that bounced in. Then had a goalless draw at home against Ireland, and scored a 92nd minute winner against lowly Slovakia at home before losing in Oslo of course. Which means 50% of your preliminary group games had an uncertain outcome going into injury time. That is a lot. The play-offs against Denmark and Switerland were more controlled though. But all in all I would still call the Dutch qualification a struggle.
     
    59Amerinorsk repped this.
  6. That's scoreboard analysis, not match as a play analysis. The ball in all those cases simply didnot get in, while it normally should have, as was also the case in the lost Norway match, in which after silly defending gave up an early 2 goals deficit, the Norwagian ladies hardly managed to keep afloat.
    But if one only cites the scoreboard data, alot is missed.
     
  7. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    the scoreboard is not everything......it's the only thing!(that matters)/

    As I've mentioned previously, there's two Dutch teams out there. One that's together irregularly for a weekend, window break(for like qualifers) and/or another that prepares weeks together for a major tournament.

    this time the Dutch are in an easy group, the Russian program has fallen off dramatically over this decade. Estonia's u19 squad lost to Germany 21-0 in one game(wonder if their senior NT is any better?).
    strange that Scotland's higher ranked than both Italy & Denmark after being told for so long by @SiberianThunderT & FIFA that their much lower ranked.

    remember it's easier to qualify for Euros as their 15 openings instead of 7(for WC)
    feel bad for @Lechus7 though, Poland;s been on the verge of greater things, but so are the Czechs = two decent clubs with Slavia Prague twice in a row making the CL quarters, plus several quality players in the Bundesliga
     
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  8. ASU55RR

    ASU55RR Member+

    Jul 31, 2004
    Brooklyn, NY/Brno,CZ
    Club:
    FC Zbrojovka Brno
    Nat'l Team:
    Czechia
    I actually like our chances with that draw
     
    59Amerinorsk repped this.
  9. SiberianThunderT

    Sep 21, 2008
    DC
    Club:
    Saint Louis Athletica
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    ...you really like flawed arguments, don't you?

    You DO realize that UEFA uses a different system than FIFA does, right? So you're already off-base since you're comparing apples and oranges. It's not "strange" at all when you consider they're playing by different rules.

    This quoted statement is essentially trying to say that UEFA's rating system is "better" than FIFA's. SPOLIER: It's not. By a long shot. There's been plenty of discussions on these boards that UEFA's system causes questionable seeding and draws. You know why? It's an insular and self-reinforcing system. If a mid-tier team gets placed in a weaker qualifying group and has a good qualifying run, UEFA gives that team a much bigger rankings reward than FIFA does, and then that team is favored in latter UEFA draws - even though they're still a mid-tier team. It's also a really clunky system where past results are explicitly weighted and phased out, so whether your rating goes up or down can swing wildly based on 6-year-old results even if you've been consistent recently. It's far less reliable and representative than the FIFA rankings are.

    That all said, precisely because of the flawed self-reinforcement, I fully expect Scotland to cruise through their group - especially because they have one of the weakest pot 2 teams out available with Finland. But: that doesn't mean Scotland is a particularly strong team. Conversely, one of Italy or Denmark has gotten screwed by this draw and will thus be screwed in the 2023 WWC qualifying draw as well.
     
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  10. 59Amerinorsk

    59Amerinorsk Member

    Chicago Red Stars
    Norway
    Mar 31, 2017
    Ahhhh. I was not aware or not paying attention!
     
  11. AMBreakers

    AMBreakers Member

    Boston Breakers, Boston Univ. Women's Soccer, Norwich City, Charleston Battery
    Jun 21, 2010
    Connecticut
    Club:
    Boston Breakers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    It would be great to see Republic of Ireland qualify for these Euros since they've never qualified for a major tournament before and their fans wouldn't have to travel very far to attend this one. It will clearly be tough for them to finish as one of the three best runners up and thus avoid a playoff though since they are in the same group as Germany and those two games will hurt their goal differential.
     
    59Amerinorsk repped this.
  12. hotjam2

    hotjam2 Member+

    Nov 23, 2012
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Ireland got some problems; their experienced coach, Colin Bell, jilted for the more lucrative, broso. World's best throw in specialist, Megan Campbell suffered an ACL, came back, but to almost no playing time at Man City(last season). Denise O'Sullivan seems to also be indisposed(as she & Campbell aren't listed for the upcoming friendly). They got some pretty good players in Quinn & Mcabe(both starters with Arsenal). Unfortunately the low, #33 ranking don't help, it usually sitcks them as a thrid seed in in qualfiers,
     
  13. Bauser

    Bauser Member+

    Dec 23, 2000
    Norway
    Club:
    Fredrikstad FK
    I think Italy had a trickier group to the World Cup with Portugal and Belgium as opponents. Since Italy play Denmark twice at the very end of the qualifiers, it's all about avoiding the pitfalls against the weaker teams on the way, and pick up maximum points in case of ending up on the runners-up table. But I can't see Italy miss out on the Euros. The Denmark-Italy games are a toss-up IMO.
     
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  14. Bauser

    Bauser Member+

    Dec 23, 2000
    Norway
    Club:
    Fredrikstad FK
    Tomorrow it starts! I suppose the coverage will be limited for most matches, but we might stumble across a valid link to some matches. Please share if you do.

    Thursday's matches. (Central European Time)

    Group B:
    Israel - Italy (17:30)
    Denmark - Malta (18:00)

    Group C:
    Faroe Islands - Wales (18:00)

    Group F:
    Iceland - Hungary (20:45)

    Group H:
    Lithuania - Croatia (17:30)
     
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  15. Lechus7

    Lechus7 Member+

    Aug 31, 2011
    Wroclaw
  16. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    Yeah, it would have been unheard of, before the WWC, but now that Italy has done good on the big international stage, a nation suddenly became aware of the girls, and the qualifiying match for Euro 2021 will be aired live on the national channel.

    In the past, you used to have to dig through the TV-schedule to find the "Azzurre"'s matches.
     
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  17. I propose to call them "Azzuragazza's"
     
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  18. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    You should at the very least use the Italian form of the plural nouns, with "Azzurragazze". :p

    But anyway in Italy we are much less inclined to use "compound words" (or even "portmanteau words") than other languages, as English or German (or Dutch? Don't know it well enough), are...
     
  19. Without glueing words together scrabble must be boring with Italians;)
     
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  20. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    I am going to watch Israel-Italy on Italian TV in a few minutes, but I just discovered that Barbara Bonansea fractured her left foot in the first-half of the friendly match Juventus-PSG played on 18th of August and she'll need at least three months to recover! :cry:
     
  21. thedexeter

    thedexeter Member

    Washington Spirit
    United States
    Jul 6, 2015
    Italians need to wake up! Down 1-0 :eek:
     
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  22. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    #22 blissett, Aug 29, 2019
    Last edited: Aug 29, 2019
    Equalized before HT with Girelli, but Italian players wasted at least 4-5 clear cut chances that should have definitely be other goals.

    Ok, Italian League didn't start yet, so the players are basically in pre-season, but they need to do way better than that in 2nd half.

    I am sorry to say that Valentina Giacinti, one of my favourite players, was particularly wasteful (although she then made up for that with the perfect assist for Girelli's goal).

    Israel is a very physical team: they had 3 YCs in 1st half and they could have been even more, with an harsher referee.
    Their Central Forward Beck is very tall and tough and can create problems to Italian defense.

    Barbara Bonansea is sorely missed.
     
  23. thedexeter

    thedexeter Member

    Washington Spirit
    United States
    Jul 6, 2015
    Ethnically, I'm Italian (with family from Napoli) although culturally American :ROFLMAO: So I was here in my chair biting my nails to the bone! :eek: I hope they do better in the second half or I just might have a heart attack! :( No Barbara is scary!
     
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  24. blissett

    blissett Member+

    Aug 20, 2011
    Italy
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    In the end Italy managed to win by 3-2, but Israeli goal at 90'+1' made the last minutes of extra-time a nail-biter indeed, despite the fact that Italy had clearly looked like the best team in 2nd half.

    Meanwhile, group-rivals of Denmark have beaten Malta by 8-0. If I am not wrong, anyway, should Malta end last in the group, the goal difference vs them won't count as a tie-breaker (can anyone confirm?).

    Let's hope Italy can do better on Tuesday vs Georgia.
     
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  25. Lechus7

    Lechus7 Member+

    Aug 31, 2011
    Wroclaw
    Yup that's the case for 6 teams groups A and B.
    To compare the rankings between the qualifying groups and to determine the three best runners-up, the results of group runners-up against the teams in sixth place are discarded. The following criteria are applied in the order given:
    a. higher number of points;
    b. superior goal difference;
    c. higher number of goals scored;
    d. higher number of away goals scored;
    e. higher number of wins;
    f. higher number of away wins;
    g. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
    h. higher position in the UEFA women's national team coefficient rankings for the qualifying group stage draw (see Annex B.1.2 a.).
     
    jnielsen, 59Amerinorsk, JanBalk and 2 others repped this.

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