U20s vs. Italy, Oct. 9, 2025 (Pre-/PBP/Post-Match Thread)

Discussion in 'Youth National Teams' started by derek750, Oct 7, 2025.

  1. derek750

    derek750 Member+

    Apr 16, 2007
    Brooklyn
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  2. GoodHands

    GoodHands Member+

    AC Milan
    United States
    Jul 17, 2024
    I do not think the USA has enough mental toughness to win this match unless Italy gifts it to us somehow.
    I hope I am wrong but we would be better off playing a team from Africa or Asia. But the draw is what it is.
    I also do not think the victory against France means much as France already had 3 points and were virtually assured of reaching 6 and 6 points practically guaranteed advancement as it was VERY unlikely that 6 points would be reached by any other third place team and, even then, since France was playing the poorest team in the tournament last so goal difference would win them any tiebreaker with other third place teams.
    That is France had little incentive to put out best effort.

    But we do have a chance and I could be wrong so I will watch Thursday's match with great interest.
     
  3. ussoccer97531

    ussoccer97531 Member+

    Oct 12, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    France was inferior to us, and did not fare as well against the last place team as we did.
     
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  4. GoodHands

    GoodHands Member+

    AC Milan
    United States
    Jul 17, 2024
    Which is meaningless as really bad teams generally improve during tournaments and our results against NCD does not figure into Frances approach to the match.
    Once we exposed how horrible NCD was all the other teams in our group knew that they were virtually sure to advance.
     
  5. ussoccer97531

    ussoccer97531 Member+

    Oct 12, 2012
    Club:
    --other--
    I think it's a mistake to believe we played "France". We played like France's "D" team. The players on our roster are essentially just more accomplished and better prospects worldwide. Not to say France will ever put out a terrible team, but that was not a team of the guys that'll play for their senior team eventually. I think trying to read a lot of caveats into the group results is a little foolish. On paper the USA had the best team in the group and on paper we won the group (albeit narrowly). May just be that the US had the best team in the group. Doesn't have to mean anything about USA vs. France beyond just this U-20 WC. Obviously doesn't, but yeah this US group is better than France.
     
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  6. Pl@ymaker

    Pl@ymaker Member+

    Feb 8, 2010
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is Italy really that good? I think we can beat them with our starters.
     
  7. GoodHands

    GoodHands Member+

    AC Milan
    United States
    Jul 17, 2024
    Yes. Italy is VERY good. They have weaknesses but the also have a quite solid back line and that can hold teams in games they should not be in. As long as a match is close one weird bounce or slip can put the "poorer" team in the ascendency.

    I believe the USA should and will win BUT it is not going to be easy no matter which way it goes and a lot will be determined by "who wants it more"
     
  8. bballshawn

    bballshawn Member+

    Feb 5, 2014
    Delaware
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union
    Its the u20 world cup, unless there is some significant talent gap, which there isnt between us and Italy, its pretty much a toss up.
     
  9. Dave Marino-Nachison

    Jun 9, 1999
    I'm gonna put myself out on a limb here, show some real courage, and predict that it's gonna be a tough one that could go either way and might come down to the little things.
     
  10. Bajoro

    Bajoro Member+

    Sep 10, 2000
    The Inland Empire
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That's one crazy take, dude!
     
  11. dwsmith1972

    dwsmith1972 BigSoccer Supporter

    May 11, 2007
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    I am trying to reconcile these takes.
     
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  12. Thundering165

    Thundering165 Member+

    North Carolina FC
    United States
    May 1, 2017
    Raleigh
    Some numbers around the matchup, small sample size of course so take it with a large grain of salt:

    Italy had an xG of +1.9 in the group stage with 6.4 xG for and 4.5 xGA (compared to the USAs 8.0 to 1.4)

    A full third of their xG has come from set pieces (2.1 xG). They have won one penalty.

    Against Argentina, their closest competition, they only managed 4 shots with just one on target.

    They were roughly even in field tilt (10.4% of total game touches were by Italy in their opponents' third, 10.3% were by their opponents in their own third). Average is roughly 11.5% so their games were fought more in the middle third than typical.

    While not particularly dominant on the ball, they have been effective at fashioning chances, requiring just 41.3 final third passes per 1 xG generated. The average team takes around 75. That's also better than the USA, who are at 70.7 even counting the New Caledonia match.

    They are slightly better than average at preventing chances. Opponents have taken 76.1 final third passes to generate 1 xG. The USA is much more stout, and opponents have needed 121 passes per xG created.

    Statistically, it seems unlikely that Italy will have what it takes to consistently generate chances against a strong USA defense. The USA should also expect most of the ball. At the same time, Italy can make the most of a quality chance here or there and has a strong enough defense to make life difficult for the USA. I think a close match determined by a goal, either 1-0 or 2-1, is the most likely outcome - assuming it does not go to extra time.
     
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  13. GoodHands

    GoodHands Member+

    AC Milan
    United States
    Jul 17, 2024
    Don't bother. It is written nowhere that I, or anyone else, has to be consistent on internet boards. I have changed my mind several time since this match was confirmed and I may change it again.
    This match is VERY interesting, in every since of the word interesting.
    While I hope for a USA victory I would not be surprise by almost any score that could happen from a 0-0 tie decided by PKs to a run away victory by either team. That is I find it quite hard, in this case, to even really decide how I believe this will go.
     
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  14. dna77054

    dna77054 Member+

    Jun 28, 2003
    houston
    Everyone must be consistent on internet boards. Thus, it is written. ;)
     
  15. twoolley

    twoolley Member+

    Jan 3, 2008
    thank you
     
  16. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    Raleigh NC
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    People from Raleigh are the best.
     
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  17. McKenniesWeah

    McKenniesWeah Member

    New England
    United States
    Feb 12, 2024
    Do any of the Italy players get minutes in Seria A?
     
  18. msilverstein47

    msilverstein47 Member+

    Jan 11, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    9 October 2025, 21:30 CET
    USA - ITALY
    Referee: Gustavo Tejera URU
    Assistant Referee 1: Carlos Barreiro URU
    Assistant Referee 2: Agustin Berisso URU
    Fourth Official: Omar Abdulkadir Artan SOM
    Reserve Assistant Referee: Abelmiro Montenegro STP
     
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  19. Thundering165

    Thundering165 Member+

    North Carolina FC
    United States
    May 1, 2017
    Raleigh
    I don't recall any of them being major players. Looking through transfermarkt it really seems like the best of them have a few Serie B appearances here and there. Just on pro performance alone our players are a lot further along.
     
  20. msilverstein47

    msilverstein47 Member+

    Jan 11, 1999
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    hopefully not a poor decision by a referee...lol
     
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  21. GoodHands

    GoodHands Member+

    AC Milan
    United States
    Jul 17, 2024
    FWIW: As of right now my TV schedule, both on my Sling app and my FOX sports app, does not show today's match being covered live at all. When I search for it the first showing is at midnight tonight (or tomorrow morning) and there is no live coverage at all anywhere in my schedule.
    I know I saw it in my schedule yesterday but I may be misremembering that.
    I don't understand what has happened as 3:30 pm on a Thursday is not a particularly important time slot.
    I was hoping that I would see some posts about this here already.
    If it were just one app I would not be concerned but everything I have direct access to does not show the match at 3:30 PM like it should.
    On a general search for Fox Sports TV schedule I do find a couple of places showing it but nothing that looks official from Fox.
    I did find this on one site but I have no idea how official it is:
    Soccer - U20 WC: United States vs. Italy 3:30PM
    https://www.foxsports.com/event-schedule

    I have never had any good results calling anyone about soccer TV schedules so I have not tried to call Fox.
    I am hoping someone here can shed some light on this.
    I know it should be available on some Spanish language feeds but I do not really remember which and I do not think I have access to those as I recently trimmed my TV costs and one thing I think I sacrificed was most of my Spanish language content.

    If anyone finds what is happening please post here or if you want PM me to avoid clutter in this thread. Thanks.
     
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  22. twoolley

    twoolley Member+

    Jan 3, 2008
    sounds like tape delay in english, universo or peacock live.
     
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  23. John L

    John L Member+

    Sep 20, 2003
    Alexandria, VA
    Live on Universo
     
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  24. GoodHands

    GoodHands Member+

    AC Milan
    United States
    Jul 17, 2024
    While I thought that, I do not believe the schedule was changed from yesterday to today.
    Thanks, I had forgotten Peacock as my sub there is still active. I just hope I can find it on the app as the Peacock app has always gives me problems and I speak Spanish much better than I read it so searching on Peacock is quite hard.

    I actually think it will be on as originally scheduled as I think a problem with the electronic distribution of channel info has just gotten garbled somehow. At least that is my hope.
     
  25. onefineesq

    onefineesq Member+

    Sep 16, 2003
    Laurel, MD
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Is the kickoff at 330 eastern or just when coverage starts? in other words, is this a 4pm eastern game?
     

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