U15s in UEFA Development Tournament, Nov.-Dec. 2023 [R]

Not exactly. Boys' heights are basically pretty random at age of 14 except for obvious outliers, then by age of 18 their heights will be close to the same order as at 11. That issue was emphasized when the kids were selected at 14 for the Academy, and a few years later we were happily playing 2013 U-20 YNT with average height of attacking players just above 5'6". A few more years later we would be surprised to learn that we are in the middle of the developmental hole. Besides being a supper talent CP was lucky to be an early developer. Wes not so much.

 

It's very heard to tell what's going to happen.

 

Any data to back up that heights are random at that age?

 

Nope, but that's well known fact in the countries where the group of kids stay at the same class together from age 6-7 to 17-18.

 

We kind of get it with the U15 level. This is one coach's selection of unfinished and raw players from a large player pool. These are prospects. Prospect being a latin word for "hasn't done squat yet." There are US U16 baseball teams. Do people think those players all develop into major leaguers? Of course not. In fact, the success rate of those players is extremely low.

I think it just comes down to the fact that there's a lot of development to go from the time a kid is a U15 to an adult professional. And you can't measure what's between the ears. Heart/desire/determination and willingness to work.

Andrew Carleton didn't develop from the time he was a teen due to a lack of potential or talent. We can all come up with other cases like that.

Why hasn't Moses Nyeman made it? Hell if I know.

And sometimes that's just the answer. Hell if I know (unless its injury). But that happens to Argentine and French prospects to. There's a huge "failure rate."

Meanwhile I didn't think a kid like Lynden Gooch had much of anything. But that guy will have a long and lucrative career in the sport. Not as a USMNTer it seems, but as a solid professional that will make a good living.

And I never give up on these guys. Cuz there are plenty of examples of highly touted young players that kinda fell out of the spotlight. Then all of a sudden they get the right opportunity at the right club.................and they zoom back into USMNT consideration. Haji Wright is exhibit A. Brandon Vazquez. Alex Zendejas had the most appearances for the U17s in his 2015 cycle. Then 8 years later he got his first USMNT cap in 2023. [with some token Mexico appearances in between.]

 

Starting with the 08s, I do wonder how would they develop?
Usually, we only have fewer than 5 players who have the talent to become good pro soccer players. from each group's age. Looking at the 08s there are at least 10 players that have the same talent or more. If you include players outside of the US, there are more than 5 players.
How many players do you think will become great soccer players?

 

The MLS MVP is 5'3, that should be the end of the height discussion. For attacking players, the ideal height seems to be 5'7 - 5'8- if you look at most of the greats. When I evaluate players under the age of 16, being big, tall or body mature is a discount in my book. Players who have physical advantages early- rely on those advantages rather than developing the necessary skills/IQ.

Player development is such a strange, unpredictable science. The cream eventually rises but how can you predict? Early physical advantages are usually nullified when the masses catch up, can the same be said for skill and IQ. I think yes. Is it more difficult to stay on national team level from u15 to adulthood or be a late bloomer- due to complacency vs motivation, probably depends on the individual.

So much, even aside from player development, genetics and environment that go into a player making it to the very top.. There's injuries, outside influences and pure luck.

 

I don't even bother with the scouting exercise at the U15 level. The last time we played in the CONCACAF U15 Championships was 2019. Look at that roster. Only 4 years later and only 2 of those guys are particularly relevant right now. Gabriel Slonina and Rokas Pukstas. We thought it was a talented roster at the time. Evan Rotundo of Schalke, Fede Oliva of Athletico Madrid, etc. There's just a high "disappearance rate" on squads like that.

At the U17 level, we've had a good cycle if we end up with 5 players on a U17WC with senior USMNT caps. An usually one or two of those ends up being a "star."

2019 U17WC squad: Reyna, Pepi, Scally, Busio, Bello
2017 U17WC squad: Weah, Sargent, Dest, Sands, Booth, Reynolds,
2015 U17WC squad: Pulisic, Adams, Wright, De la Torre, Zendejas, Trusty, Vazquez

You have U17 cycles like that over and over and over and over then you build a nice pool of players. Even better at the U20 level because you pick up some later developers and some more dual-national commitments. The US is back-to-back-to-back CONCACAF U20 champions and back-to-back-to-back-to-back U20WC quarterfinalists. That means a lot. And it's without some of our elite players who skip that level and go straight to the senior team (Pulisic, etc.)

I don't really make that kind of analysis for U15 rosters. It's really tempting to do the analysis, but also just too early. There's a wide variance of outcomes for all the players. Its nice to see a US U15 do well at a tournament like this against nations like Portugal and Italy. I wonder who the leading scorer in the history of the US U15 program is? I doubt we keep track.

 

That's easy. His athletic growth stopped at 14 (maybe before that), by 16 it was obvious that he'll end up as a small player that isn't fast either. Freddy stopped at 13, Fro at 11, your local "the kid" at 10?
Freddy had amazing skills of course, which combined with small, slow, and soft produced an average MLS player, if that. Very similar Nguyen, who wasn't an early bloomer ended up to be much better player.

 

There is a clear talent gap between the 07s and 08s. The next U20 doesn't look too good Unless we can win some dual nats like Dino Klapija, Tyler Meiser, Christian McFarlane. The next U17 is going to be with the 08s and the next U15 will be for the 09s.
All of the age group are going to be for the 2030 WC, not 2026.

 

Every U20 roster only has a couple of stars on it. Every U20 roster has holes. The U20 rosters of Argentina and France do too.

Players will develop. We'll be fine. Seriously, people say this every cycle: We've got holes here and here and here for this cycle!!! Then we find guys and we do fine.

 

We’ll probably be fine in the sense that we’ll qualify and have a good chance to advance out of the group.

However, there’s no way getting past that it’s looking like a down cycle. Some cycles are better than others. Thats only natural. The U-17’s should be better and the U-20’s should be worse.

 

Youth should only be used to see who's going to be the next USMNT player.
I don't see any player making it from the next U20 and U17.

 

Our top 2 youth prospects by some margin are Cavan and Nimfasha. The by some margin part bears repeating.

 

I agree with Cavan for 09s.
Nimfasha is a good prospect but there are a few players ahead of him for 08s. Maximo Carrizo, Jack Mize, Julian Hall, Alexander Staff, and maybe Austyn Jones.

 

I made a comp of Mehmeti for this tournament:

As a player, he excels at occupying passing lanes and anticipating where the ball will be played. He has a super-developed positional understanding of the game for his age. There were multiple occasions where a centerback carried the ball into the midfield and he intelligently filled the void that they left. He is also tall and good at contesting balls in the air and controlling balls out of the air. He is capable of making very impressive passes but did give the ball away on occasion when he went for some of his more ambitious line-breaking passes. One thing he almost never does is turn the ball over in his own final third which I can't say for most players at this level.

On offense, he knows how to find open passing lanes and can be very effective with his off-the-ball movement when we're playing out of the back. I only wish he would look to get open every time we have the ball instead of just some of the time. Even if he doesn't receive the ball every time, he would be drawing defenders to him and opening the midfield to create space on our buildups. He is also an effective set-piece target due to his ariel prowess.

Overall, he was the MVP of the tournament for me. In the Portugal game, they literally could not play the ball through the middle because he was completely dominant at winning the ball back in that zone of our final third.