It is time for this thread. The Republican race is over, and the Democratic one will be whenever Bernie decides that it's time to step aside, as Ted Cruz did last night. I attempted handicap Trump vs. Clinton by determining the states that each candidate will surely win, putting this state in Trump's ledger and this one in Hillary's. But Trump is such an unknown. I am not sure what we can project about him. For example, Utah is a very red state but it shot him down in the primary, and Mitt won't support him. Texas is a very red state but Trump has trashed both of Texas's favorite sons in W and Ted, and presumably the Latino vote will be mobilized. Wisconsin has a Republican governor but he's not supporting Trump, and the anti-Trump forces thrashed Trump in the primary. Most of the rural Western states weren't much for Trump (although not for Hillary either). And so forth. The usual math is upset. I expect Trump to win all the relatively poor states that have lots of minorities, where the votes are cast on racial lines. South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, a few others. After that, I don't know. So I thought it would be easier to start with the states that Hillary can't lose. I'll will keep this a conservative list, won't put in any possible maybes. Washington Oregon California Hawaii DC Maryland New Jersey New York Connecticut Massachusetts Rhode Island Delaware Illinois That puts Hillary at 177 electoral votes. She would need 93 of the remaining 361 electoral votes to win.
What is the quote? Never understimate the stupidity of the American people? I remember something about always betting on that. Oh well, maybe I will google it.
Chris Cilizza wrote something recently. Hillary has a big lead in Florida. If she wins Florida and all the states that the Dems have won 6 straight times (plus DC) she wins. Forget Ohio and Virginia and so on. Trump has to make up a lot of ground in Florida, or win a state that the Dems haven't lost since 1988. I know it's scary. There will be times when we feel like someone who gave his buddy 1000 to 1 odds on a 5 dollar bet on Leicester City. But we need to stay strong, to support each other, to save each other from a rash act of desperate panic. Together, we'll get through this.
I might have given Hillary that, had Trump not fared so well in the GOP primary. That example is not reassuring.
My news sources are the economist, yahoo and this place, I just don't want to get inside a bubble that tells me Trump has no chance of winning and wake up November 9th with the news of a president Trump.
No worries. Republicans unskew polls, but Democrats don't. Nate Silver will tell you what will be, and we Dems will pass along the bad news well ahead of election day, if that is the case. There ain't no bubble like a GOP bubble. Did you know that last week The Wall Street Journal ran a story entitled "How George McGovern Made Donald Trump Possible"? Google it, I do not lie.
Actually, I meant all of us. I mean, except for that racist who babbled on about cuckservatives, are their any Trump supporters here? Seriously, I get that conservatives aren't going to be Hillary fans, but who HERE prefers Trump to her?
True, it will be a short list. It is also a very short list of people who admit to supporting the GOP. I've asked in the past for posters to take the GOP's side on official party platform issues, but in vain. As a side note, Hillary Clinton is the clear and obvious choice for fiscal conservatives. Trump has pledged for a strong military, pledged to protect social-network programs, and promised tax cuts. His tentative budget proposal, vague to be sure, was scored as accruing the biggest deficits of any candidate's budget. But you know and I know that most "fiscal conservatives" won't support Hillary. It's the kinda thing that drives me bonkers in trying to figure out the GOP. It doesn't follow the normal rules of rationality. Which, of course, is why is was ripe to be Trumped.
Yeah, he's doubled down on the Reagan/W candy program. Those guys offered tax cuts and a big military. Trump does those, along with big social spending, too. The party of fiscal conservatives ... go figure.
I'm not liberal (assuming Senrs. Sanders & Warren are what defines liberal these days) and I consider myself part of that "we". These days, I've gotten past my apocalyptic thoughts on political happenings in the US...but they might me relevant with regards to a Trump Presidency.
The issue about Trump aren't about his policy positions. It's his pure mysogony and facism. I actually don't think he has any particular hatred of a race, he just takes advantage of it - which makes him a race baiter. However, listen to him talk about his wife, and what he'd do if she ever got disfigured. "How are her breasts? Thats important". Or how he literally BRAGS about how he's never changed a diaper, doesn't really do any child rearing...leaves that to his wife. He's actually PROUD of this. Then his facism. He pits American against American in the name of nationalism and security. Surveillance programs, lists, banning religious groups,...it is simply untenable that this is the face we give to the world.
Me. I mean, if I remember correctly, he blames "liberalism" for our decline. So surely it's liberals fault that Trump is where he is. Hell, Ross Douthat of the New York Times even made that claim.
As I wrote elsewhere, the Journal blamed McGovern for Trump last week, and today it ran one about about 10 articles that blames Obama for him. I thought Republicans were raised to take personal responsibility. But I was wrong. When things go against them, they do what they accuse black people of doing -- whining, moaning, blaming somebody else. Clint Eastwood may still live, but his party is dead. Edit - Damn Song beat me to this. My punishment for not writing a shorter note.
Yup. Here's the column http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/opinion/sunday/from-obama-to-trump.html?_r=0 THE spectacle of the Republican Party’s Trumpian meltdown has inspired a mix of glee and fear among liberals — glee over their rivals’ self-immolation, and fear that what arises from the destruction will be worse. What it hasn’t inspired is much in the way of self-examination, or a recognition of the way that Obama-era trends in liberal politics have helped feed the Trump phenomenon. ... ...Trumpism is also a creature of the late Obama era, irrupting after eight years when a charismatic liberal president has dominated the cultural landscape and set the agenda for national debates. President Obama didn’t give us Trump in any kind of Machiavellian or deliberate fashion. But it isn’t an accident that this is the way the Obama era ends — with a reality TV demagogue leading a populist, nationalist revolt. Now, to be sure, some of the stuff I cut out says he doesn't let the GOP "off the hook," but... well, there you have it.
I'm really curious as to how the McGovern argument plays out. I might have to head over to the library and check it out, since I assume it's behind a paywall.