Top Mid Major Coaches

Discussion in 'Women's College' started by Sledhead, Dec 17, 2019.

  1. Respect the Game

    PSG
    United States
    Apr 17, 2019
    USA
    Analytics only had John Kerry and Hillary Clinton as Presidents. History has shown that you just can't trust just the charts . Are post season appearances/successes tracked?

    And based on your explanation, why would a coach with only 1 yr of success according to their record, Casey Brown, be listed even as one to watch? If one yr of anything (success or not) is not a determination.

    I agree with others BU's coach has a history of success in the sport. While i am not a fan of her subing style, when your major mid is in position to knock off a p5 conference champ (who knocked off several top 10 teams) in ncaa's only last season (not just slip in and get blown away) and you have been there before, you should be on the list analytics or not even with a down yr.

    I bet analytics had uva in the cup finals. Human factors have to be considered. The game is played and officiated by humans not charts.
     
  2. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Absolutely. It's also shown that you just can't trust just the humans.:geek:
     
  3. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #78 cpthomas, Dec 30, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2019
    You'd lose your bet. Analytics (at least, mine), applied pre-season, had North Carolina and Stanford in the Cup finals.

    However, one has to know what analytics can and can't do. Analytics can't tell you what's going to happen, when applied to future events where the outcome is uncertain. (The same is true for humans.) To think otherwise is to misunderstand what analytics are for. Good analytics, on the other hand, can tell you what likely outcomes will be. (Humans can try to do that, too.)

    Here are two real examples from DI women's soccer:

    First example:

    Before the 2019 season began, the coaches from each conference ranked their teams, thus in effect predicting what their final regular season conference rankings would be. Chris Henderson also did rankings of the teams in each conference. My "analytics" also did rankings of the teams in each conference.

    The coaches actually are pretty good at this, as they should be. The conference's teams have been playing each other for years, they know the opposition's players and how they match up with their own, they know how much teams have lost to graduation, they know who the other teams have added and likely something about them, etc.

    Chris Henderson gathers a wealth of information about each team for his analyses. This includes coach histories, incoming players, players who are gone and how important those players were, etc. He uses a formula approach, so it's a kind of analytics.

    My analytics, on the other hand, assign teams ratings and rankings based only on historic Massey ranking trends -- either over the period since 2007 or over the period beginning a year before the current coach arrived if the coach has been at the school for at least 4 seasons.

    Thus, we have pure analytics on the one hand, expert coach predictions on the other hand, and CH's mixed expert/analytics predictions on the third hand, with the experts knowing far more than anyone else I know of. How did the three of them compare in their conference ranking predictions?

    For the coaches, overall their pre-season predictions of rankings within their conferences averaged within 2.16 positions of the final rankings.

    For Chris Henderson, his pre-season predictions were within 2.22 positions of the final rankings.

    For my analytics, the pre-season predictions were within 2.30 positions of the final rankings.

    These all are very close. It's worth noting, also, that for the coaches, they only were predicting their own conferences, where as CH and my analytics were covering all conferences. And, I'll make an educated guess that all three did better than almost anyone else would do.
    Second example:

    My analytics approach, after it assigns ratings and rankings to teams and after I have the full season schedule, determines a simulated outcome for every game based on the opponents' comparative ratings as adjusted for home field advantage.

    If one has a correct understanding of analytics, one knows that the individual game results are not always going to be what the analytics say. The fact that some game results will be different doesn't mean there's something wrong with using analytics. Rather, that's an inherent part of the process of attempting to determine future outcomes where the outcomes are uncertain.

    However, my analytics, rather than just determining a simulated outcome for every game, also can assign percentage likelihoods to the three possible outcomes -- win, tie, or loss. If the analytics are good, then for a big enough group of games, if I add up the win, tie, and loss likelihoods, they should match up well with the actual win, tie, loss results.

    The way my system is set up, Team 1 is the home team and Team 2 is the away team. For neutral site games, the first team in the alphabet is Team 1.

    For the 2019 season, looking at all the games played (not counting the NCAA Tournament), here's how my analytics' "predictions" of the season's results based on the win/tie/loss likelihoods matched up with actual results:

    Analytics' Team 1 wins: 1674.0 games
    Team 1 Actual wins: 1670 games

    Analytics' Team 1 ties: 337.8 games
    Team 1 Actual ties: 354 games

    Analytics' Team 1 losses: 1145.2 games
    Team 1 Actual losses: 1133 games

    I'll venture to say that I don't think any human could have done better than this.
    So, analytics can't tell you with certainty what an individual result will be, whether it's a specific game result or how a coach will do in the future. What good analytics can do, however, is tell you for a big enough sample of games what the overall results are likely to be. And, for a big enough group of coaches, they can give you a clue to how well the coaches are likely to do in the future at the competition level at which they're currently coaching, as an indicator of how they might do if elevated a level.
     
  4. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Done with the Ms, which means I'm well over halfway through the teams:

    Jason Dowiak @ UMass -- this is really too early to tell, he's only been there for 2 years. But, in those two years the team's Massey rank has improved 71 spots from where it was the year before he arrived. So, one to watch.

    Brooks Monaghan @ Memphis -- that's if you think of the American as a mid-major.

    Troy Fabiano @ Milwaukee -- they've had a 117 position rise since 2014, the year before he arrived. However, he gets an *. That's because Milwaukee's trend has been towards playing significantly weaker non-conference opponents. So ???

    Krissy Turner @ Monmouth -- they've had a 121 position rise since 2007. And the last 3 years, they've had "staying power" in double digit rankings. Of course, that could be due to some particular players who will be leaving and might not be replaced. But, at the moment looking quite good.
     
  5. Sam Miami

    Sam Miami Member

    Bayern Munich
    Germany
    Sep 11, 2019
    Reading between the data lines, the best way for mid-majors to raise their ratings seems to be play a weak schedule and just win a bunch of games games?
     
  6. Collegewhispers

    Collegewhispers Member+

    Oct 27, 2011
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    jason at UMass has done a good job. That’s one I could continue to see rise.
     
  7. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    This is a very good question. My answer: I don't know for sure. If I were using RPI rankings, I'd be suspicious that what you suggest is the case, although I'd still want to figure out a way to get a "for sure" answer. On the other hand, since I'm using Massey I'm guessing there's more to it than just weakening your schedule. Perhaps weakening opponents and improving your winning percentage lets you attract better players and builds player morale, thus helping the team improve?

    For purposes of interpreting trends, however, at this point when a team's ranks improve a lot and the strength of their opponents simulaneously decreases a lot, I look at the improvement as possibly tainted.

    I think the converse can happen, too. A team plummets in the rankings and then I see that the team has been playing consistently tougher schedules. Is there a relationship between the two? There might be. A rating system should balance winning percentage and strength of schedule, but some do it better than others. (This is where the RPI's main weakness lies.)
     
  8. Enzo the Prince

    Sep 9, 2007
    Club:
    CA River Plate
    Don't know if he's been mentioned already, but Mike Barroquiero took a DOA program at Delaware a few seasons ago to 12 wins this season.
     
  9. USsoccerguy

    USsoccerguy Member

    Feb 5, 2009
    Club:
    Gamba Osaka
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    "I've heard a lot of different stories..." - Don't ask then to have anonymous posters perpetuate rumors. Clearly, time has marched on and he's doing well.
     
  10. Collegewhispers

    Collegewhispers Member+

    Oct 27, 2011
    Club:
    Columbus Crew

    I think there are a lot of different ways to look at how programs are doing but CP you always give us a good perspective using statistics that we can always agree or disagree with but it’s good info to have!
     
  11. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Some more possibly top, or going to be top, mid-major coaches, from teams beginning with N:

    Ally Nick @ NJIT -- not really sure on her, but she arrived in 2016, the year before they were Massey #322, and in 2019 they were 218, which is an improvement of 104 positions. And this is notwithstanding that their 2019 rank was a drop some from 2018. She might be a candidate to move up a level? Probably needs a bit more time at NJIT to make her case.

    Chris Logan @ North Dakota -- Massey # 278 in 2016 before he arrived and #211 in 2019, a 67 rank improvement, and like NJIT that's with a drop back some in 2019. It's early to reach conclusions, but he seems one to keep an eye on.

    Eric Faulconer @ North Florida -- he's only been there 1 year, so really shouldn't be on the list, but they went from #246 in 2018 to #160 after his first year, a massive 86 position improvement in 1 year. Seeing how N Florida does in 2020 will be very interesting.

    John Hedlund @ North Texas -- a long-timer. Since 2010, his teams have improved 90 to 100 rank positions and now appear to have settled in the #50 to #75 range. You might have noticed that I don't have Navy on the list, notwithstanding that many see Carin Gabarra as a very good coach. She may be, especially given her having a much more complex recruiting environment to deal with than most coaches. But if you compare North Texas' ranks to Navy's, North Texas has settled at a much better ranking level and Navy is both lower down in the rankings and more inconsistent. For Gabarra, this might be a case where factors other than rankings are a better judge of where she fits on the coach grading scale.
     
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  12. StevenLa

    StevenLa Member

    Jan 27, 2010
    Atlanta
    Club:
    Celtic FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    I would think Faulconer is a bit unique. Spent nearly two decades at lower divisions with a lot of success. D2 final four etc. UNF's improvement not surprising but agree will be interesting to see what year two looks like.
     
  13. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Thanks, USsoccerguy, but it was asked and answered.
     
  14. Eddie K

    Eddie K Member+

    May 5, 2007
    #89 Eddie K, Jan 3, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2020
    cpthomas, for the record, your stuff is awesome. Thank you for the effort. It's funny when new people come around the forum and we have the same arguments about every other year!
    My simple point and I believe you'll agree - Data is factual and reliable but humans are not. Using data to predict human behavior is ________. You might say "fun", others might say "folly". Clearly, the sportsbook takes advantage of all this. The Ravens rest their QB and win anyway, the Patriots play there QB in a meaningful game, and lose. Many other examples. Arsenal results vs Chelsea then ManU this past week is another!

    About Navy - I've not looked at the data but the perception is that Navy is always in the top half of the Patriot. Always competitive. Perhaps "conference place" would be interesting to look at. Certainly the AD cares. Women's soccer seems like a reliably good program for Navy. Even if a team never beats a team above them in RPI ranking but is in their league tournament every year and in the championship game for say 2 of every 3 years and just won it? Beating Army might mean you've had a good year at Navy so it is a special situation but I do rate Gabarra pretty highly.

    AND - thank you for adding to the list of names that Colgate could have called!
     
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  15. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    On to the Os, two sort of interesting ones:

    Angie Hind @ Old Dominion -- been there since 2014. In 2013, the year before she arrived, their Massey rank was #268. In 2019 it was 104. That's a rise of 164 positions, and it's been at a pretty steady pace. From the trend lines, I can't tell if their improvement has stopped, but I expect there will be a point at which they'll level out. At the same time, they appear to have been fairly steadily weakening their non-conference schedules. I'm developing a hypothesis about schedules, which is that you can have schedules that are too tough and they will result in poorer rankings than reflect the true strength of your team or you can have too easy schedules and they will result in better rankings than reflect the true strength of your team or you can have just right schedules that will put your rank right about where it should be. And, that this is not due to rating system disfunction but rather has to do with player energy levels, enthusiasm, and morale, or some other intangible such as recruiting. I wonder what those with DI coaching experience think about this.

    Matt Kagan @ Oregon State -- been there only in 2019, so too early to tell. But in 2018 Oregon State was Massey #204 and in 2019 was #39. At the same time, in 2018 Oregon State's non-conference opponents' average Massey rank was #65, which was the 7th toughest non-conference schedule in the country, where as in 2019 the average was #170.
     
  16. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    From the teams beginning with P:

    Tim Ward @ Pepperdine -- I'm including West Coast Conference teams, since they're not a Power 5 conference. Pepperdine is consistently in the #10 to #80 Massey rank range. That makes Ward a top non-Power 5 conference coach.

    Michelle French @ Portland -- She's only been there 2 years, so it will take more time to tell. But Portland has moved from Massey #151 the year before she arrived to #67 in 2019, an 84 position improvement. And, the 2019 schedule was much more difficult than the year before she arrived -- in 2019, per Massey, Portland played the 9th toughest non-conference schedule in DI.

    NOTE: After I include Jennifer Rockwood @ BYU, who should be on the list, I'll note that BYU, Gonzaga, Pepperdine, and Portland, all of the West Coast Conference, have coaches on my list. And, my list only goes through the Ps, so far.
     
  17. Sam Miami

    Sam Miami Member

    Bayern Munich
    Germany
    Sep 11, 2019
    The "mid-major" term for soccer is so annoying. The WCC clearly has better soccer programs, better coaches, better history, better academics and higher level top teams over the SEC, Big 12 and Big 10. Just this year alone, legitimate argument that BYU & Santa Clara would likely have won all three of those leagues.

    BYU, Santa Clara, Pepperdine, Portland coaches aren't leaving for Oregon, LSU or Oklahoma any time soon for a lot of reasons, mainly because they already have better jobs & live in more desirable locations. Starting with what may come as a surprise, I bet they make more money than the (when you include camp income). My kid went to camp at Santa Clara and Pepperdine several years ago and it felt like those coaches must be printing money. If my kid was better at soccer, would have been great places to send her. Places I would not be excited to send my kid include Norman, Baton Rouge or Eugene.

    I recognize this is kind of a west coast bias rant, but Rockwood, Smith and Ward are not "mid-major" coaches by any measure.

    Gonzaga is a top 10 basketball program by the way. Not mid-major either. "Power 5" only applies to football which is 180 degrees from college women's soccer.
     
  18. SoccerTrustee

    SoccerTrustee Member

    Feb 5, 2008
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    CPThomas, on the other thread it stated Albany coach leaving to take Temple. Where would Nick Bochette rank in your system and Albany in Massey rankings? Won a couple championships there as a head and was an assistant there before that. If Ally Nick and Casey Brown were mentioned would figure he should be too. Surprised Colgate didn’t go for him as he is sort of in that area and has actual experience as a head coach with winning titles.
     
  19. cpthomas

    cpthomas BigSoccer Supporter

    Portland Thorns
    United States
    Jan 10, 2008
    Portland, Oregon
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Good question. Bochette has been head coach since 2017. In 2016, Albany was Massey #182; in 2019 they were #181. So, there's not a lot there. But ... he also was acting coach in 2015. In 2014, they were #247. If you count his tenure as beginning in 2015, there would be a 66 position improvement from the year before he started through 2019. That would put him on the list.

    I also notice that he had a year as an assistant at Hartwick (men's) and then was at RPI (the school). That's a pretty good pedigree.
     
  20. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    WCC schools have better academics than B1G schools? Uhmmm ok :D
     
  21. Collegewhispers

    Collegewhispers Member+

    Oct 27, 2011
    Club:
    Columbus Crew
    i think there is an argument to be made that they have some academic programs that are stronger depending on the school.
     
  22. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Possibly? Maybe? No, not really.

    Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana...... The WCC schools, from an academic standpoint, can't hold a candle to those schools. Not even close.
     
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  23. PowerSoccer

    PowerSoccer Member

    Dec 3, 2019
    The first two and Purdue, YES. The rest are crap schools.
     
  24. PlaySimple

    PlaySimple Member

    Sep 22, 2016
    Chicagoland
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    You are absolutely clueless and have no idea what you're talking about.

    My comments started in response to what Sam Miami wrote. He states that the WCC "clearly" has better academics than the B1G schools. That is unequivocally false. Here is his uniformed quote:

    My second comment came in response to what Collegewhispers wrote. Here is that quote:

    Again, this is false.

    You're right in stating that Northwestern, Michigan, and Purdue are great schools. Ohio State is as well and it is far from, as you would say, a "crap school." Ohio State is a major research institution and has an endowment of over $5 billion. The endowment of Ohio State alone is more than all of the WCC schools combined. (FWIW, Northwestern and Michigan both have endowments of over $11 billion.) Ohio State's average ACT scores of admitted students is 27-32. A 27 puts a student at the 25th percentile of admitted students. A 32 would put a student at the 75th percentile. the average ACT score is 29. Less than 50% of students that apply are admitted. The only WCC school that is in the same ball park might be BYU but BYU is still not at the level of Ohio State. As a matter of fact, Ohio State has a lower admission percentage and higher schores than Purdue does.

    I only used Ohio State as an example. Other B1G schools are also excellent institutions.

    Until you know what you're talking about, any comments you make are meaningless, Powersoccer.
     
  25. SoccerTrustee

    SoccerTrustee Member

    Feb 5, 2008
    Club:
    Everton FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Brazil
    Thanks CP. AWK had Bochette high on his coaches rank system too. Saw that he was officially announced at Temple. Will have his hands full in a top heavy conference in the AAC though.
     

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