Top individual years without close to team titles

Discussion in 'The Beautiful Game' started by PuckVanHeel, Apr 30, 2016.

  1. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Myself and Tom Stevens arrived at the interesting subject of (potential) top three years, without the teams of the players being close or near titles. That is: league finish some way off the top, early cup and competition exits. This is a team performance profile that can apply to various degrees, and it is rare.

    I can't properly comment about the players before Law (as in: too much uncertainty) but will give my thoughts about the other years.

    More on Law in the next post. I think I'll do each case at once. I can already say though that Law only partially fits this profile (imho).
     
  2. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    As you yourself say, Law doesn't entirely fit the profile. 2nd in the league, out in FA Cup semi final (Law scored a goal in 3-1 loss), out in CWC quarter final against Sporting Lisbon (4-6 on aggregate; Law scored 3 goals in the first leg although with 2 penalties).

    He's a case where the calendar year (Ballon d'Or) looks more impressive than the season. In the 1964 calendar year he scored in 50 games exactly 50 goals (with 5 penalties). As comparison: Greaves comes to 33 goals with 5 penalties as well.

    Law was (if used that way) also a widely known world class player from midfield, although that has become forgotten over time. On the other hand, he played with two other Ballon d'Or winning attacking players, and that might have been a good help (Best made just his debut in 1963-64).

    In the 1963-64 topscorer chart (30 goals) he was 'beaten' by Greaves (35 goals), Pickering, McEvoy and Hunt. Greaves is the biggest name here; however, if you deduct the penalties then Greaves has the same number of goals as Law for 1963-64 (in 11 more games). Hunt had without penalties one goal more than Law.

    Those guys tend to have solid international records too (i.e. beaten by solid guys):

    Greaves: 44 goals in 57 games, 15 goals in 21 European games for club
    Pickering: 5 goals in 3 national team games, 6 goals in 9 European games for club
    McEvoy: 6 goals in 17 national team games, 0 goals in 2 European matches (the weakest name in the list)
    Hunt: 18 goals in 34 national team games, 17 goals in 31 European matches

    That are players with decent records, as can be expected from a well-run league. Denis Law is especially strong for the 1964 calendar year, except when he played for the Scotland national team (which is no shame - he was on occasions playing deeper too as a natural consequence).
     
  3. poetgooner

    poetgooner Member+

    Arsenal
    Nov 20, 2014
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    From the modern era, Gareth Bale is in with a shout for 2012/2013. 21 league goals for a non striker. Cleaned up the individual awards by winning FWA PotY, PFA PotY, PFA YPotY, and included in both ESM and UEFA Team TotY.

    That season, Spurs finished 5th, got knocked out in the quarter finals of the Europa League by Basel, and got knocked out in the 4th round of both the League Cup and the FA Cup, by Norwich City and Leads United, respectively.
     
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  4. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Thanks. That is a very good modern example indeed. He was more like a 'true' midfielder as you say (behind at least two other forwards, often three) although he took he mighty 165 shots for that number (but without any penalty however).

    I'll personally do George Best 1970-71 next.
     
  5. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    #5 PuckVanHeel, May 2, 2016
    Last edited: May 2, 2016
    Re: national team performances. Do you mean the England match in particular? (especially the disallowed goal). As well as scoring his only national team hat-trick this year (against Cyprus, scored 4 goals against Cyprus in two matches). Sadly for him, he missed the Soviet Union match due to death threats and security concerns. The list with his "fifty defining fixtures" include that Cyprus hat-trick as an overall great performance in his career.

    As I said in the other thread, George Best is for the 1971 calendar year a strong candidate (Matt Busby returned 29 December 1970 and that did wonders for him and his team). He scored on club level 34 goals in 54 games at the 1971 calendar year. For the 1970-71 season and 1971-72 seasons as a whole the numbers are markedly less impressive.

    For the 1970-71 season I don't think I would have him near the top three, although I notice that in the goalscoring charts he was beaten by players with decent/strong records (Brown, Chivers, Kennedy), and he was technically, tactically and physically not a 100% forward - who heavily leaned on his end product to be particularly valuable for his team.

    In 1970-71 he scored a goal against Tottenham in each game (thus 2 in total) that finished 3rd, he scored one goal against Chelsea (6th). Manchester United themselves finished 8th.

    So, for the 1971 calendar year he's a good case for worldwide top three (maybe not), but I don't think he can be really placed there for the 1970-71 season as a whole.

    For the 'Football League' alone he's probably not 'number one' or an unanimous 'team of the season' inclusion (at least not voted that way). Part of that is related to shining internationally for club and country I guess (competitive or in friendlies)

    While I understand that comment and idea, I want to make a few brief remarks however (without repeating myself too much);

    - George Best and Diego Maradona are not the only players who fall under that bracket
    - I know you understood that, but the 'outliers' are not necessarily about "without lifting trophies" but about not even being near, and - sometimes - also no goals and assists against strong teams while your team loses.
    - Both are for a myriad of reasons 'overrepresented' on youtube. Some very skilled players are not, or show/emphasize the wrong scenes and wrong moments of a career.
    - They can often create false impressions about playing style and core strengths (George Best's not so much however, likely due to limited footage).

    That said, I also believe George Best would have been (even) better if he had played today and born in Britain today - in the development, maintenance and application of his skills (in an absolute sense and vs rivals).
     
  6. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    #6 PuckVanHeel, May 2, 2016
    Last edited: May 2, 2016
    I agree that 1979 is the weakest of the two years. The 'hype' of 1979 was fed by a few obvious (unmatched/unparalleled) factors that can be read in e.g. Jimmy Burns his book as well, which helped to kick start his reputation. Still, not every reputable magazine saw him as (near) the best ('World Soccer' in 1979 wrote that he can be the best in the future, something e.g. Menotti subscribed to; France Football neither, and they don't retrospectively change their 1979-1981 Ballon d'Or awards). Another Youth World Cup star ended 2nd in the SAPOTY poll, who had an intermittent appearance record throughout the rest of the year for club and country. The YWC had an unmistakable effect.

    I honestly doubt very much whether he was at that age better than Keegan at his prime (outstanding at all levels he played in - one can watch his NT games), Zico at his prime (this was a year where he performed internationally for his club) etc. But given that magazines in 1979 were still comparing Keegan with Best and Cruijff, I can understand why many see him as a weak EPOTY winner. He had still a strong year however.

    I also doubt whether he was at that age better/influential than the teenagers Rivera, Charlton (let alone teenage Pelé) and maybe even guys as Cruijff (observing 'skill' and the consistent record vs strong teams). Or the original Ronaldo, as expanded on here:
    http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/messi-v-ronaldo-at-23.1635923/page-50#post-33926656

    Something people also do very often is to merge various different versions of a player into one 'super' player. Who then follows the traditional career arc; that someone merely becomes a better version of the same qualities and strengths.

    That above link makes a few basic points/observations about league competition, player strengths etcetera.

    1985 is a more convincing case, and I would not necessarily say that he doesn't belong there (same as Best for 1971 year), but I merely noticed the 'outlier' status and that compared to other legends there's a 'free ride' (who tick similar/better boxes - more on that in the next post).
     
  7. Gregoriak

    Gregoriak BigSoccer Supporter

    Feb 27, 2002
    Munich
    #7 Gregoriak, May 2, 2016
    Last edited: May 3, 2016
    Uwe Seeler 1963-64

    His club Hamburg finished 6th in the final table of the Bundesliga (having been one of the favorites to win it before the season).

    Hamburg were eliminated in the Cup in the first round.

    Hamburg reached the quarterfinal in the Cup Winners Cup.

    Scored 30 goals in the league (in 30 games, 1 penalty).

    Scored 2 goals in the Cup (2 games, no penalty).

    Scored 7 goals in 4 international games for West German national team (1 penalty).
    He scored his goals against Turkey (3), Scotland (2) and Czechoslovakia (2). All friendlies.

    Scored 5 goals in 6 games in the Cup Winners Cup (no penalty). 1 goal against Union Luxembourg, 4 goals against FC Barcelona.

    Total: 44 goals in 42 games (2 penalties) (incl. German NT).
     
  8. giles varley

    giles varley Member+

    Oct 8, 2013
    nottingham uk
    Club:
    Leeds United AFC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Keegan was compared to Best and Cruyff ?..
     
  9. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    #9 PuckVanHeel, May 2, 2016
    Last edited: May 2, 2016
    -----------------

    I agree 1984-85 for club + 1985 for the national team is probably a stronger year than George Best 1970-71 or himself in 1979. I am less certain about Denis Law in 1963-64, but as shown he also fits the team profile not as well (i.e. 2nd in the league and so on).

    But I don't think he's a lock-in and to your points I'd like to mention this, plus a few of my own. Because of this outlier status, I had researched this myself.

    Based on 'talent' and potential that is absolutely true (I understand that this is the most relevant part for your point re 1984-85). On performances of the past two years less so. Magazines as 'World Soccer' had titles as "what's gone wrong?", and that includes performances/impact when he did play. Compared to the set expectations, and other recent star players. But I understand that this is less relevant for your consideration than the 'potential'.

    The ones who shared the honors were Platini, Maradona and some would also add Junior. Peru FC listed Junior as the #1 South American player for 1984-85, based on video, grades and reviews, although I didn't agree with that idea. Platini had next to individual recognitions also the topscorer title and a high number of assists going for him.

    [I don't rate DBScalcio, in large part because of the very poor correlation with actual results]

    Per hearsay one would think that, but it is right that 1984-85 Serie A had three 'players of the tournament' playing in the league (Maradona, Platini and Rummenigge), arguably at least. Other leagues would be mid/late 1970s Primera Division (Netzer, Cruijff, Kempes, Caszely) and - above all - the 1990s version of the Serie A (which had at one point more than four).

    I don't imply that the 'hearsay' is necessarily wrong however; I merely try to give it some sort of quantifiable face rather than solely 'gut feeling'.

    But the strength of the mid 1980s Serie A is sometimes a bit romanticized for two main reasons. 1) in the summer of 1984 the Serie A was ranked 5th in the UEFA country ranking (coefficients). 2) the total dominance really started in 1988-89. The 1984-85 season is more like a 'normal' season that other leagues had. So, that makes it a tidbit less self-evident that mid 1980s Serie A would claim the entire 'world players of the year' podium (as said: I agree this is still notably stronger than Best 1970-71 or his former self in 1979).

    Other sources of doubt/questions and general observations:
    • "Without pens he scored 9 goals in 30 league games, 2 goals in 6 Coppa Italia matches (Serie B/Serie C sides), and then 6 goals (1PK) in 10 national team matches in the year 1985. Goals against Paraguay (penalty), Chile, Venezuela and Mexico. For the 1984-85 season as such it are 39 games he played in the season; some others played more in the league alone. [...] The club did improve from scoring 28 goals in a season to 34 goals in a season (relevant for an explosive sprinter), although with a different roster and injuries record (injured star players)."
    • His club did not play in Europe (not his fault obviously), but I checked whether he registered goals in friendlies or exhibition games, as something that might compensate a little bit. He has one: a goal against Cannes (8th in 1984-85 French 2nd division), September 1984.
    • What happens if you deduct his non-PK goals? Then it will cost them 4 points, in a 16 teams league. That is definitely alright, but not incredibly amazing (with assists added 7-8 points).
    • His goals and assists record in the league (for surefire 'world player' claim). In the Coppa Italia he had one penalty (vs Serie B team, Arezzo, 14th), one free kick goal (Serie C1) and one open play goal (vs Serie B team, Pescara, 7th) in 6 matches.

    Let me look at the league penalties first. He took 5 penalties and scored all five. Napoli themselves finished 8th in the table.

    1984-85 penalty goals

    He has penalty goals against Sampdoria (3rd), two in the same match against Udinese (12th), Torino (2nd) and Como (11th). Of these scored penalties, the one against Como (11th) was drawn with his involvement (handball by opponent). Against Sampdoria (3rd) in round 2 he had the pre-pre-assist for the penalty, so to speak.

    1984-85 non-penalty goals

    His nine other goals include one free kick goal: against Udinese (12th). Free kick drawn by shirt number #11 after a Bertoni pass.

    The eight open play goals: Como (11th), Lazio (4 goals, 15th and relegated), Fiorentina (9th), Ascoli (14th and relegated), Udinese (1 goal, 12th).

    1984-85 assists

    Then he has five assists as well. AS Roma (7th), Atalanta (10th), Cremonese (16th and relegated), again AS Roma (7th) and Fiorentina (9th).

    [Bertoni was one of the other new acquisitions; his most important tangible contributions include a goal against Verona (1st) and two goals against Internazionale (3rd)]


    Summary: together with the George Best 1970-71 case, his former self in 1979 and Seeler in 1963-64 it fits the theme of this thread nicely. That is clearly true (less convinced about Law in 1963-64). On a related theme, I also agree (with Tom Stevens) that 1984-85 is a stronger season as the other 'outliers' in his list. The strength of Maradona his 1984-85 season (in output relative to his position and role and/or general influence) - whether those performances are sufficient for top three worldwide - is also a tentative case and can be decided by each self.
     
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  10. Gregoriak

    Gregoriak BigSoccer Supporter

    Feb 27, 2002
    Munich
    Bob Latchford 1977-78

    His club Everton finished third in the league (9 points behind Nottingham Forest).

    He scored 30 goals in the league (39 games, 2 penalties)
    He scored 1 goal in the FA Cup (2 games, no penalty). Everton were eliminated in the fourth round (1/8th final)
    He scored 1 goal in the League Cup (5 games, no penalty). Everton were eliminated in the fifth round (quarterfinal)
    He scored 1 goal for England against Wales (3 games, no penalty).

    Total: 33 goals (2 pens) in 49 games (incl. England).
     
  11. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Serie A ~1992 had: Francescoli (1983 & 1995), Sosa (1989), Leonardo Rodriguez (1991), Van Basten (1988), Hassler (1992), Sammer (1996; original choice was Eilts though), Schillaci (1990) and even Baggio was quite close in 1994 (silver ball just behind Romario). Seven players of the tournament, nearly eight.

    1992 runner-up and popular alternative choice B. Laudrup was playing in 1992 at the Serie A.

    Unless I'm mistaken, that is when the Serie A reached their highest number. Africa Cup of Nations included (Abedi Pele played in Serie A between 1994-1996 and was in his first season very good actually).

    Serie A ~1997 had Ronaldo (1997, 1998), Zidane (2000, 2006) if I'm not mistaken. I tentatively thought this year would be a good candidate too, but it's limited to these two players. However, in 2006 the runner-up was Cannavaro so we can see that as a third player - as it replaces one of the two by Zidane 'monopolized' MVPs. The possible runner-ups for 1997 and 2000 were not Serie A players, I think.
     
  12. Ozora

    Ozora Member+

    Barcelona
    Spain
    Aug 5, 2014
    Club:
    Chelsea LFC
    Interesting stuff,as usual. I add Messi 11-12 to this list. Didn't won Laliga and CL(both two most important games against Chelsea and Real, Messi was quite disapointed) but the season remained as Messi's most goal scored season ever
     
  13. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Interesting thought whether a 'far removed from titles' year can be equal or better as a title winning year - especially in a year without a major tournament. Can someone be individually better when he's far removed from trophies (mid table finish and early exits), in comparison to a double winning year?

    For example Dearman (who some happen to take serious) rates the 1984-85 season as the best season of all-time:
    http://xtrahistory.blogspot.com/2013/01/Annual-Best-Player.html

    I'll use the same lines and thinking points, but leave the conclusion open:

    The competition by top end talent was very likely higher in 1984-85 than in 1986-87. I've a book with all statistics and 1986-87 had just two new (foreign) players in the league, the rest remained the same.

    http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads...traniera-1980-87.1811217/page-6#post-30209118
    http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads...traniera-1980-87.1811217/page-7#post-32295454

    Passarella, Briegel, Cerezo, Boniek, Rummenigge, Francis, Platini, Brady, Dirceu, Wilkins, Edinho, Trifunovic, Bertoni, Schachner were all into their thirties.

    The ones who weren't were: Elkjaer (29-30), Diaz, Berggreen, Stromberg, Branco, Laudrup, Hateley, Kieft and Cornelliusson.

    The same holds possibly for the Italian talent (Vialli, Baggio etc.).

    In terms of league strength: by the summer of 1986 the Serie A had moved to #1 spot in the coefficients, but it was still some way off the post 1988 dominance (see above). Interestingly though, the Serie A had in 1986-87 itself their weakest European year since they opened their borders for a second foreigner in 1982, or for the 20 years after.


    These above mentioned things are also a part of the explanation for why Napoli could win the league with 70.0% of the points maximum (the maximum points one could theoretically achieve). That was the lowest number between the early 1960s and late 1990s (1960-1998).


    In 1986-87: 7 goals in 29 league games, 6 goals in 10 Coppa Italia matches (all goals came against Serie B/Serie C teams), and then 4 goals (1PK, 1FK) in 6 national team matches in the year 1987. Goals against Italy, Peru and Ecuador. In the 1986-87 he played 46 games. The club improved from scoring 35 goals to 41 goals, although with significant roster changes (Bertoni left on an almost free transfer after a sub-par 1985-86 season; Carnevale, De Napoli and Romano arrived for 12,0 billion lire, as well as the breakthrough of Ferrara). As I said at the beginning; I do not provide a conclusion, but make the comparison along the same lines.

    To be continued - don't have the enthusiasm and energy to do all at once.
     
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  14. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    .... continued....

    In 1986-87 he had no goals (in friendlies) against foreign club opposition. He did play in Europe and had no goals and assists in the 1986-87 UEFA Cup. His team lost against Toulouse (3rd in 1986-87 French First Division), where he himself missed the penalty kick in the shoot-out.

    It will be really difficult to see his 1986-87 as superior to himself in 1984-85 - from an individual perspective. At this dimension at least (international club performances). This increases the odds that he was indeed better in 1984-85.

    This nice graph shows it for 1986-87, although it has one typo (see remark below the graph).

    [​IMG]
    Note: the 2-2 against Atalanta was a penalty too. That is a typo in above graph.


    Take his non-penalty goals out and it costs them 4 points as well. With assists added (which will be listed in a follow-up post) it costs them 7 points.

    Because this time the club finished 1st in the league and not 8th, this level of importance takes precedence above the 1984-85 season.

    This (relevant but particular) dimension does not suggest that the non-winning season was a better season, with higher individual influence.

    The way, the manner (and quantity) the penalties were won cannot explain a difference either, although it is slightly 'better' (with higher involvement) for 1986-87 - more on that later.

    Of course, the margins can be very small. AC Milan (5th) did not play with their default backline G. Galli - Tassotti - Bonetti - Baresi - Maldini, but due to personnel problems with Nuciari - Maldini (right back) - Baresi - F. Galli - Evani in this match. Then, the goal against Sampdoria (6th) was actually a handball.

    Still, this aspect - the importance of the goals and assists - is something that swings in the favor of 1986-87 (a successful season).
     
  15. poetgooner

    poetgooner Member+

    Arsenal
    Nov 20, 2014
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Would you say there is a case for David De Gea. He's been voted EPL's best GK two years running now (his first was in a title winning season, so that douesn't count) and Man Utd has been no where near the titles.
     
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  16. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    Yes, that is an excellent example (imho, my 2c). Even more so because his later seasons are probably better as in 2012-13 or the successful ones. It can be a product of getting a lot more work to do, but in particular his first season wasn't great. Other players/goalkeepers wouldn't get as much patience.
     
  17. Tom Stevens

    Tom Stevens Member+

    Dec 12, 2012
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    A season I feel fits well with this theme is Rivaldo 00-01. Overlooked because Barca were off the title race but great scoring numbers and heroic performance in the final game scoring a hat trick vs Champions League finalists Valencia to save the club. Will definitely be in contention for top three that year.
     
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  18. PuckVanHeel

    PuckVanHeel BigSoccer Yellow Card

    Oct 4, 2011
    Magatown
    Club:
    Feyenoord
    http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/the-worst-ballon-dor-winner.2012564/page-3#post-31308521
    http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/the-worst-ballon-dor-winner.2012564/page-4#post-31312437
    http://forums.bigsoccer.com/threads/the-worst-ballon-dor-winner.2012564/page-3#post-31308831
     
  19. AD78

    AD78 Member+

    Jul 17, 2013
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Totally agree with this, last season esepcially, personally I think United were worse last season (a lot more issues at the back) and De Gea was the reason United finished 4th, this year he has again been very good but last year he was exceptional.
     
  20. PDG1978

    PDG1978 Member+

    Mar 8, 2009
    Club:
    Nottingham Forest FC
    Yes, I agree and also this year he will be in the FA Cup Final (though maybe that becomes less and less a major honour in todays game).
     
  21. AD78

    AD78 Member+

    Jul 17, 2013
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    He will start in the Euros too so interesting to see how he does there, I honestly beleive over the last two seasons he has been better than Neuer, Neuer now makes far too many mistakes and rash decisions that cost goals.
     
  22. giles varley

    giles varley Member+

    Oct 8, 2013
    nottingham uk
    Club:
    Leeds United AFC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    For me - De Gea is the best keeper in the world and maybe the best keeper i've ever saw.. thats how highly i rate him.
     
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  23. giles varley

    giles varley Member+

    Oct 8, 2013
    nottingham uk
    Club:
    Leeds United AFC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    How about David Ginola winning footballer of the year in 1999 when he was at spurs ? I know Spurs won the league cup but Ginola won his award in the year Man utd won the treble... @PuckVanHeel
     
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  24. poetgooner

    poetgooner Member+

    Arsenal
    Nov 20, 2014
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    I wouldn't quite put him on the same level as Buffon. DDG is one of the best shot-stopper I've ever seen. I don't think he's got that aura yet though. Still has some distance to go in terms of commanding his own box, and communicating with the defense. He's still very young for a GK though. Easily got another 10 years at the top level.

    One of the things that define top level goalkeepers as well, is how they transition into old age with experience. The likes of Buffon and Van der Saar lost their speed in the late 30s, obviously, but more than made up for it with experience. That's how they built their legacy. VDS, for example, has textbook footwork, so he's forced into less world-class saves.

    Good one. That treble still haunts me. Arsenal should have stopped Man Utd right in their track, both in the league and in the FA Cup, but in true Wenger style, we choked :(

    Bayern Munich also....
     
  25. giles varley

    giles varley Member+

    Oct 8, 2013
    nottingham uk
    Club:
    Leeds United AFC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    For sure De Gea has a long way to go but he is a most impressive keeper and who knows how he will be rated in ten years... if he continues as he is doing then for me he will be among the greats.. he is man utd's best player at the moment. If i was selecting a current world XI he would be my keeper..
    I think shot stopping in the modern game is more difficult for keepers because of the lighter modern balls and unpredictable flight of the ball...

    ..yeah Arsenal could have stopped utd from achieving the treble but so could bayern in the final !!

    ( Ginola was awesome to watch in 1998 - 1999 - what a player..both footed ..should have done more with all that talent )
     
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