In a merit-based world, I would agree with this (i.e. 50% - or higher - on this list won't reach those levels). However, many coaches and scouts create self-fulfilling prophesies for some of these players, so that has to be factored in. In other words, some players identified early as stars can be outplayed by others but will continue to be propped up because coaches/scouts are mentally invested in them. I think the mental side needs to be scrutinized closer with some of these players. I am not going to start calling out names of young players just yet, but for example, one player ranked highly in this list - who receives an awful lot of press - showed up to a major MLS event this winter and completely tanked. Disinterested, no hustle, seemed to quit, giveaways/mental errors galore. Several of us watching this player in three games noticed the same thing. Still ranked near the top .... Certain other players look good, but talk to the players who play with them. The players are often smarter than the coaches. They will tell you which players makes other players around them better, and which players makes other players around them worse. Some of the players on this list or in other rankings fall into that latter category. They look flashy - some of them because they became men earlier than their peers - but their team bogs down when they are on the field. It would be interesting to have the players form rankings for their own age group. Not that these rankings aren't useful - but the players might come up with some interesting insights that scouts miss.
I think you're spot on with some of your comments. Bob Morocco put an interesting analysis piece together on probabilities & possibilities. What to make of the list David Kerr developed (with a team): https://chasingacup.com/ynt-prospects-probabilities-and-possibilities/ Interesting on the player analysis, but they get significantly more time with those they play with, in their leagues, etc. - I think experience and emotion would play too heavy a role. It would be interesting to hear from them though. It's one question I always ask USMNT & USYNT players - who's the player no one is talking about, who's the best. Chris Richards shared his thoughts in a recent interview we did with him (not surprising it was former teammates). He also shared how Bayern does ask player him about personality traits, which makes a lot of sense. Intangibles that in game video won't necessarily capture: https://chasingacup.com/chris-richards/
I think we need more boom/bust players as we have enough low ceiling / high floor guys and we’re missing elite difference makers.
he is now 20 years old. But Ledesma needs to be bubble wrapped. He is an absolute chance creator every time he plays. We saw it in the U-20 World Cup in limited minutes and in a short cameo with the USMNT. Secret Weapon.
If Busio was a winger/10 I would. Busio the 6 has been a completely different player that deserves the hype