I've been doing this for several years now, taking over the mantle from Ursula who had been doing it previous to that. I've decided to do it now to have a point of comparison after the MLS season (and summer tournaments) to see who has moved up and down. As always don't pay too much attention to the positions or the rankings. A lot of guys have been moved around so that I have the correct number at each position (John O'Brien, Nate Sturgis and Kei Kamara are good examples). Players were taken to match the age distribution from the previous three world cups. The players were divided into four-year groups, and the number of players for each group matches the distribution from previous world cup teams (from all countries). This mostly works well to give us a nice spread in ages of possible players from Frankie Hejduk to Greg Garza, but every now and then I'm forced to add some flotsam to the list like Jamil Walker or Seth Stammler because they have the right birthdays. Don't freak out when you see them, and remember that they _have_ done some good things in the past so you never really know. With that out of the way (players in bold are guesses at possible 2010 roster members should we qualify): Code: Goalkeepers [B] 1. Tim Howard - 3/6/1979 2. Joe Cannon - 1/1/1975 3. Matt Reis - 3/28/1975[/B] 4. Troy Perkins - 7/29/1981 5. Matt Pickens - 4/5/1982 6. Marcus Hahnemann - 6/15/1972 7. Brad Guzan - 9/9/1984 8. Chris Seitz - 3/12/1987 9. Zach Wells - 2/26/1981 10. Tally Hall - 5/12/1985 Centerbacks [B] 1. Oguchi Onyewu - 5/13/1982 2. Carlos Bocanegra - 5/25/1979 3. Cory Gibbs - 1/14/1980 4. Jimmy Conrad - 2/12/1977[/B] 5. Bobby Boswell - 3/15/1983 6. Jay DeMerit - 12/4/1979 7. Chad Marshall - 8/22/1984 8. Michael Parkhurst - 1/24/1984 9. Dan Califf - 3/17/1980 10. Ryan Cochrane - 8/8/1983 11. Eddie Robinson - 6/19/1978 12. Nick Garcia - 4/9/1979 13. Anthony Wallace - 1/26/1989 14. Patrick Ianni - 6/15/1985 15. Mykell Bates - 4/15/1990 Left Backs [B] 1. Jonathan Bornstein - 11/7/1984[/B] 2. Heath Pearce - 8/13/1984 3. Todd Dunivant - 12/26/1980 4. Nathan Sturgis - 7/6/1987 5. Dasan Robinson - 6/6/1984 6. Jose Burciaga Jr. - 11/16/1981 7. John O'Brien - 8/29/1977 8. Tim Ward - 2/28/1987 9. Frankie Hejduk - 8/5/1974 10. Hunter Freeman - 1/8/1985 Right Backs [B] 1. Steve Cherundolo - 2/19/1979 2. Jonathan Spector - 3/1/1986[/B] 3. Marvell Wynne - 5/8/1986 4. Chris Albright - 1/14/1979 5. Frank Simek - 10/13/1984 6. Quavas Kirk - 4/13/1988 7. Drew Moor - 1/15/1984 8. Joshua Gros - 6/25/1982 9. Ugo Ihemelu - 4/3/1983 10. Bryan Namoff - 5/28/1979 Defensive Midfielders [B] 1. Ricardo Clark - 2/10/1983 2. Pablo Mastroeni - 8/29/1976 3. Kyle Beckerman - 4/23/1982[/B] 4. Michael Bradley - 7/31/1987 5. Brian Carroll - 7/20/1981 6. Ben Olsen - 5/3/1977 7. Danny Szetela - 6/7/1987 8. Clyde Simms - 8/21/1982 9. Logan Pause - 8/22/1981 10. Seth Stammler - 9/29/1981 Attacking Midfielders [B] 1. Landon Donovan - 3/4/1982 2. Freddy Adu - 6/2/1989[/B] 3. Benny Feilhaber - 1/19/1985 4. Eddie Gaven - 10/25/1986 5. Sacha Kljestan - 9/9/1985 6. Gabriel Ferrari - 9/1/1988 7. Kyle Martino - 2/19/1981 8. Dax McCarty - 4/30/1987 9. Stuart Holden - 8/1/1985 10. David Arvizu - 4/19/1988 Left Mids [B] 1. DaMarcus Beasley - 5/24/1982 2. Bobby Convey - 5/27/1983 3. Justin Mapp - 10/18/1984[/B] 4. Pat Noonan - 8/2/1980 5. Brad Davis - 11/8/1981 6. Robbie Rogers - 5/12/1987 7. Santino Quaranta - 10/14/1984 8. Lee Nguyen - 10/7/1986 9. Greg Garza - 8/16/1991 10. Arturo Alvarez - 6/28/1985 Right Mids [B] 1. Clint Dempsey - 3/9/1983[/B] 2. Chris Rolfe - 1/17/1983 3. Kamani Hill - 12/28/1985 4. Johann Smith - 4/25/1987 5. Brian Mullan - 4/23/1978 6. Chris Klein - 1/4/1976 7. Davy Arnaud - 6/22/1980 8. Kei Kamara - 9/1/1984 9. Jeremiah White - 4/4/1982 10. Brian West - 6/10/1978 Forwards [B] 1. Taylor Twellman - 2/29/1980 2. Brian Ching - 5/24/1978 3. Eddie Johnson - 3/31/1984 4. Kenny Cooper - 10/21/1984[/B] 5. Josmer Altidore - 11/6/1989 6. Josh Wolff - 2/25/1977 7. Conor Casey - 7/25/1981 8. Jeff Cunningham - 8/21/1976 9. Alecko Eskandarian - 7/9/1982 10. Chad Barrett - 4/30/1985 11. Preston Zimmerman - 11/21/1988 12. Nate Jaqua - 10/28/1981 13. Edson Buddle - 5/21/1981 14. Herculez Gomez - 4/6/1982 15. Jamil Walker - 4/21/1981 Players were chosen based on their position in national team pools, the quality of their current club and how much and how well they play at it, and with an assumption that younger players have developmental advantages over older ones. After that my subjective opinion determines the rest (for example, Zak Whitbread is still listed in the US player pool, but he obviously hasn't done much in several years so I didn't include him).
Really? Beckerman over Bradley and Feilhaber? Which brings up a point: I think we need to do away with this whole midfield-position classification thing. Obviously, Bradley isn't a D-mid. Nor is Feilhaber an A-mid. Just as examples. Here's who I hope we take (by which I with some spots mean who I hope have developed in the way I think they will), in no particular order: GK: Howard, Cannon, Seitz D: Cherundolo, Spector, Onyewu, Bocanegra, Boswell, Parkhurst, Bornstein, Sturgis M: Feilhaber, Dempsey, Adu, Beasley, Bradley, Szetela, Clark, Mapp F: Cooper, Donovan, Altidore, Eddie Johnson Pick away!
Great list--although I would say Charlie Davies should be included somewhere. My early, half-assed prediction for the '10 team: GK: Howard, Reis, Seitz D: Gooch, Bocanegra, Gibbs, Marshall, Spector, Conrad MF: Donovan, Adu, Dempsey, Convey, Mapp, Beasley, Cherundolo, Bradley, Clark, Kljestan, Bornstein F: Cooper, Altidore, Davies This is set up for a base 3-4-1-2 formation (which is why Cherundolo and Bornstein (who I envision backing up 'Dolo at RM in this set-up) are listed as MFs), but if we want to go 4-4-2 you can always stick Dolo/Bornstein/Spector at RB and Bornstein/Spector/Boca/Gibbs at LB. Donovan's primary position is MF here but he's also the 4th forward if we need one.
Voros, this is a great service you do for the rest of us. Thanks, you're repped. Can anyone tell me what's up with Szetela? How's he progressing? I know he was injured a bit. When I saw him in person two years ago, he sure looked like something special.
I kind of forgot him, but I still think he misses (just barely). It basically would come down to Lee Nguyen or Charlie Davies (due to the way I do the ages, 1986-1989) and thus far I give an advantage to Nguyen. Maybe you could toss out Arvizu and I wouldn't argue, but he's two years younger, has a bunch of talent and is in a much better situation this year than last, so I think he could maybe get things turned around this year. Also Nguyen and Arvizu can be moved to positions other than forward making them easier to fit in.
Good idea up top, but my current view on how much certain players will develop is a bit different. I think G: Howard, Cannon, Seitz D: Cherundolo, Spector, Onyewu, Bocanegra, Boswell, Conrad, Bornstein, Dasan Robinson M: Convey, Dempsey, Clark, Bradley, Beasley, Adu, Mapp, Gaven F: Donovan, Cooper, Altidore, Wolff/Twellman I'd say Donovan goes as a forward. Wolff and Twellman are my favorites to get the "old forward" spot. I think by 2010 Gaven will be at the international level. He's got talent.
I saw him play a half in person a week ago and he looked healthy. Didn't do anything great, but did _nothing_ bad. I think he has a good opportunity for playing time this year, and he certainly looks like he'll get some time with the U20s.
I would've included Davies as a striker over guys like Gomez and Walker. CK, if Wolff is on the 2010 WC team I'm not even going to bother to watch.
My take of who will be in the mix... Goalkeepers: 1. Tim Howard - 3/6/1979 2. Joe Cannon - 1/1/1975 3. Troy Perkins - 7/29/1981 4. Brad Guzan - 9/9/1984 5. Chris Seitz - 3/12/1987 Central Defenders: 1. Oguchi Onyewu - 5/13/1982 2. Carlos Bocanegra - 5/25/1979 3. Cory Gibbs - 1/14/1980 4. Bobby Boswell - 3/15/1983 5. Nathan Sturgis - 7/6/1987 6. Michael Parkhurst - 1/24/1984 7. Jimmy Conrad - 2/12/1977 8. Jay DeMerit - 12/4/1979 9. Dasan Robinson - 6/6/1984 10. Chad Marshall - 8/22/1984 Left Backs: 1. Jonathan Bornstein - 11/7/1984 2. Heath Pearce - 8/13/1984 3. Tim Ward - 2/28/1987 4. Todd Dunivant - 12/26/1980 Right Backs: 1. Steve Cherundolo - 2/19/1979 2. Marvell Wynne - 5/8/1986 3. Jonathan Spector - 3/1/1986 4. Chris Albright - 1/14/1979 Defensive Midfielders 1. Ricardo Clark - 2/10/1983 2. Benny Feilhaber - 1/19/1985 3. Pablo Mastroeni - 8/29/1976 4. Michael Bradley - 7/31/1987 5. Sacha Kljestan - 9/9/1985 6. Danny Szetela - 6/7/1987 7. Dax McCarty - 4/30/1987 Attacking Midfielders 1. Landon Donovan - 3/4/1982 2. Clint Dempsey - 3/9/1983 3. DaMarcus Beasley - 5/24/1982 4. Freddy Adu - 6/2/1989 5. Justin Mapp - 10/18/1984 6. Bobby Convey - 5/27/1983 7. Eddie Gaven - 10/25/1986 Forwards: 1. Josmer Altidore - 11/6/1989 2. Kenny Cooper - 10/21/1984 3. Eddie Johnson - 3/31/1984 4. Brian Ching - 5/24/1978 5. Preston Zimmerman - 11/21/1988 6. Alecko Eskandarian - 7/9/1982 7. Charlie Davies - 6/25/1986
I explained that because I'm sticking strictly to age distributions I can't do that. And in reality they've both done significantly more in their career than Davies has. Hell Herculez Gomez _was_ Charlie Davies 5 years ago. Now they're significantly older so Davies has development advantages, but then so do a lot of other guys born from 1986-1989. So that's the group he competes with, and in _that_ group he's down the list. The list is much more based upon what guys have done as opposed to what we _hope_ they're going to do. The guys who have already done things get preferrential treatment over those who we're still waiting on. That means Eddie Gaven over Gabe Ferrari, Taylor Twellman over Preston Zimmerman and Pat Noonan over Robbie Rogers.
Leaving Pickens off I think is a mistake. He personally kicked Zach Thornton straight to the Fire curb and won player of the month as a Goalkeeper. He looked awfully good and awfully talented (big, quick and agile). I see more upside with him than say Perkins. As for Seitz, unless he winds up being the starter, you'd likely have the same situation as you had with Howard in 2002: why send him to the World Cup to do nothing instead of staying home and playing?
I dont like that list. Beckerman over Bradley!?!?!?! Please. And you've got to think at least ONE of our young strikers will be good enough to make it (Zimmerman, Altidore, Johann, Akpan, Ferrari, etc.)
Goalkeepers (3) Tim Howard - 3/6/1979 Matt Pickens - 4/5/1982 Matt Reis - 3/28/1975 Centerbacks (4) Oguchi Onyewu - 5/13/1982 Carlos Bocanegra - 5/25/1979 Jay DeMerit - 12/4/1979 Cory Gibbs - 1/14/1980 Left Backs (2) Jonathan Bornstein - 11/7/1984 Heath Pearce - 8/13/1984 Right Backs (2) Steve Cherundolo - 2/19/1979 Jonathan Spector - 3/1/1986 Defensive Midfielders (2) Ricardo Clark - 2/10/1983 Pablo Mastroeni - 8/29/1976 Attacking Midfielders (2) Landon Donovan - 3/4/1982 Freddy Adu - 6/2/1989 Left Mids (3) DaMarcus Beasley - 5/24/1982 Justin Mapp - 10/18/1984 Bobby Convey - 5/27/1983 Right Mids (1) Clint Dempsey - 3/9/1983 Forwards (4) Kenny Cooper - 10/21/1984 Taylor Twellman - 2/29/1980 Eddie Johnson - 3/31/1984 Josmer Altidore - 11/6/1989
They will be 21, 20, 23, don't know or care, and 21 when the next World Cup takes place, and Altidore is the leader in professional minutes played thus far with 510. Only Zimmerman was a starter for a youth national team (U17), which should be an indication of how hard it is to project youth stars as adult stars. The landscape is littered with the Raul Palomares and Bryce Wegerles of the world who were "the next big thing" as teenagers and are currently in parts unknown in their early 20s. You notice Charles Kazlauskas, John Thorrington and Grover Gibson didn't make the list either. Again, I'm stressing what guys have actually done, and other than Altidore, none of those guys have actually done much of anything as a professional. Hell, Akpan isn't even a professional yet. Of the 23 players on the US Roster in 2006, 22 were professionals in February of 2003 with Dempsey being the only exception. Dempsey's rise was unusually meteoric. To place them above guys who have actually scored double digit goals as a professional and who will be in the prime of their careers in 2010 seems to me to be overly optimistic and a touch foolish. They certainly _could_ make it (even Akpan), but I'd put the guys with the established track records ahead of them for now.
I wouldn't worry about the distinctions in the various midfield roles, it didn't affect who I chose. I picked the 100 guys and then fit them into the roles best as I could. Same with the 23 I picked. We also don't know who our coach will be. If it's Bradley we could assume we'll play a box and then those midfield roles get all changed. If it's not, we have no idea how exactly we'd line up.
I think the shortage of experienced Euro based pros will skew the age numbers for 2010 ... GK Howard Brown Keller Guzan Hahnemann Right back: Cherundolo Spector Wynne Clark Central defenders: Onyewu Bocanegra Demerit Robinson Ihemelu Spector Left back: Pearce Bornstein Spector Convey Deep and/or defensive midfield Feilhaber Bradley Mastroeni Clark Davis Kljestan Convey Attacking mid/wings: Mapp Beasley Dempsey Convey Adu Nguyen Rogers Hill Donovan Forwards Cooper Donovan Jaqua Smith Davies Zimmerman Ferrari Hill E. Johnson
I agree that using the average age distribution provides a good starting point and a useful discipline in constructing a roster. As you were doing this, I'm curious to know what deviation from this discipline you wish you could have made as you put together your roster. I'm referring here to your top 23 roster rather than top 100. In real life obviously, some teams will end up older and others younger than average. Did you feel that adding more players from one particular age bucket would have given you a stronger team? Oh one more question. Why Greg Garza among all the kids currently in Bradenton?
call me biased if you will for being a sturgis fan, but i honestly feel that he will be right there in the mix for the '10 squad. as a 19 year old, he is already ahead of the game and is playing for the U-23 team this summer. thats rare for someone so young to have that distinction. he is one of the rising stars in U.S. soccer and will be 23 at the next cup. i know thats young, but if he is healthy, he'll be one of the ones to watch.
I thought Kei Kamara was a citizen of Sierra Leone & not eligible unless he gets citizenship. Is he in line or already a citizen? How do you handle this in your list. Very interesting rankings - thanks.