While I agree that the debate is mostly about budgets, your "arms race" argument doesn't work. If it were correct, men's basketball teams and Div I-A football teams wouldn't be raking in enormous profits every year. They'd be spending the money to promote themselves to recruits. The reason that lower-division schools haven't cut men's teams is that the lawyers haven't pressured them. Many of these schools are nowhere near Title IX compliance. However, their budgets simply aren't big enough to be worth the fight (yet). When the feminist legal associations get around to it, men's soccer is likely to come under the axe.