"They give the sport up as teenagers"

Discussion in 'Soccer in the USA' started by Stan Collins, Apr 21, 2007.

  1. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Could that be related to academies discouraging participation in HS Soccer?
     
  2. cflsteve

    cflsteve Member

    Jul 21, 2013
    Club:
    Philadelphia Union

    www.yscacademy.com
     
  3. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    The thought occurred to me. It's like an 0.2% drop (or less than 2000 total, about half the size of the total Academy rosters), which is small enough that it could be explained by something like that. Plus, the number of schools with teams went up from 11,600 to 11,626, meaning more schools were carrying boys' soccer, but the rosters, on average, got slightly smaller. That's something you might expect if a few kids were being pulled out, and you could only find roster replacement for half of them.

    That said, participation had been growing at a rate of 6.5% a year, and to flatline in the first place, so that something like that could cause a loss, is surprising.
     
  4. Rob55

    Rob55 Member

    Nov 20, 2011
    To draw some better conclusions on the unexpected decrease in boy's HS soccer, I'd like to see all the boys HS sports listed again. I noticed baseball had a slight up-tick as well after dropping each year for a while, but I really don' t know if this has any direct coorelation to soccer. Need to see the other sports as well...or even more relevant, fall boy HS sports only since that is soccer season...you can play multiple sports for HS depending on season. Most relevant is same-season (Fall) sports comparisions.
     
  5. Rob55

    Rob55 Member

    Nov 20, 2011
    The other factor on these HS stats is the economic impact, population grown and # of new high schools being built (as each HS only has 1 varsity soccer team last time I checked). For every new high school that opens there's another 15-20 boys added to the HS soccer participation stats.
     
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  6. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    Fair enough. Another explanation I'd thought of is that the recession hit HS sports in slow motion, and is just now catching up. I'm about to go out to dinner, but I'll try to remember to post a few other sports for comparison and see where it comes out.

    It's also possible, of course, that it's a blip, a one year thing that won't happen again. Too bad we'll have to wait a year to find out on that one.
     
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  7. Rob55

    Rob55 Member

    Nov 20, 2011
    Yeah, that was sort of what I was thinking (no increase due to recession), but not that less are playing soccer but that we saw a slow down in US population growth/immigration in last couple of years and also less funding committed to open new high school schools in the few years after the recession. Also due to the recession, some schools may have had to cut soccer from HS program as a budget saving measure. Another thing to consider.
     
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  8. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    So last year was a bit of a blip, in terms of soccer participation going down. It is once again at an all time high this year. But the gap grows again, as baseball had an even better year.
     
  9. Tom Ado

    Tom Ado Member

    Jun 25, 2015
    #334 Tom Ado, Oct 9, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2015
    I never quite understood where the "kids have been playing soccer since the 70s and the sport still hasn't grown" talking point came from. If you look at NFHS data for 1969-1970, soccer was #11 behind volleyball as a HS boys sport.

    Another favorite double standard:

    Kid gives up football = "He probably wasn't good enough anyway!"
    Kid gives up soccer = "He wanted to play REAL sports!" :rolleyes:

    Here's an update to include 2014-15 figures. Baseball's lead decreased to 53,998 from 65,210 over the last year. The coming years should provide some interesting data since we'll get to see the extent that safety concerns might impact football participation and the sport(s) that might benefit the most from it. (Football totals include 11-man, 8-man, 6-man, etc.)

    http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatics/PDF/2014-15_Participation_Survey_Results.pdf
    http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatics/ParticipationStatics.aspx/#sportSearch
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    #335 Stan Collins, May 17, 2017
    Last edited: May 17, 2017
    I haven't updated this in a while. This is the chart with the last two years added:

    Code:
    Year    Soccer   Baseball   Gap   %
    1972 78,510
    
    
    1974 98,482
    
    
    1976 115,811
    
    
    1977 115,811
    
    
    1978 141,070
    
    
    1979 132,073
    
    
    1980 133,649
    
    
    1981 149,376
    
    
    1982 161,167
    
    
    1983 162,504
    
    
    1984 173,423 398,608 225,185 43.51%
    1985 180,281 391,810 211,529 46.01%
    1986 196,028 393,905 197,877 49.77%
    1987 203,984 406,046 202,062 50.24%
    1988 208,935 407,630 198,695 51.26%
    1989 218,973 412,825 193,852 53.04%
    1990 220,777 413,581 192,804 53.38%
    1991 228,380 419,015 190,635 54.50%
    1992 236,082 433,684 197,602 54.44%
    1993 242,095 430,401 188,306 56.25%
    1994 255,538 438,846 183,308 58.23%
    1995 272,810 440,503 167,693 61.93%
    1996 283,728 444,476 160,748 63.83%
    1997 296,587 444,248 147,661 66.76%
    1998 309,484 449,897 140,413 68.79%
    1999 321,416 455,305 133,889 70.59%
    2000 330,044 451,701 121,657 73.07%
    2001 332,850 450,513 117,663 73.88%
    2002 339,101 451,674 112,573 75.08%
    2003 345,156 453,792 108,636 76.06%
    2004 349,785 457,146 107,361 76.51%
    2005 354,587 459,717 105,130 77.13%
    2006 358,935 470,671 111,736 76.26%
    2007 377,999 477,430 99,431 79.17%
    2008 383,561 478,029 94,468 80.24%
    2009 383,824 473,184 89,360 81.12%
    2010 391,839 472,644 80,805 82.90%
    2011 398,351 471,025 72,674 84.57%
    2012 411,757 474,219 62,462 86.83%
    2013 410,982 474,791 63,809 86.56%
    2014 417,419 482,629 65,210 86.49%
    2015 432,569 486,567 53,998 88.90%
    2016 440,322 488,815 48,493 90.08%
    
    And the trend:
    [​IMG]

    The date at which the data suggest the gap will vanish currently stands at 2024.
     
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  11. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    So the number happened to get updated in another thread:
    https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/re...-soccer-popularity-in-the-usa.2006087/page-21
    Chart looks like this now:
    Code:
    Year Soccer Baseball Gap %
    1978 141,070
    1979 132,073
    1980 133,649
    1981 149,376
    1982 161,167
    1983 162,504
    1984 173,423 398,608 225,185 43.51%
    1985 180,281 391,810 211,529 46.01%
    1986 196,028 393,905 197,877 49.77%
    1987 203,984 406,046 202,062 50.24%
    1988 208,935 407,630 198,695 51.26%
    1989 218,973 412,825 193,852 53.04%
    1990 220,777 413,581 192,804 53.38%
    1991 228,380 419,015 190,635 54.50%
    1992 236,082 433,684 197,602 54.44%
    1993 242,095 430,401 188,306 56.25%
    1994 255,538 438,846 183,308 58.23%
    1995 272,810 440,503 167,693 61.93%
    1996 283,728 444,476 160,748 63.83%
    1997 296,587 444,248 147,661 66.76%
    1998 309,484 449,897 140,413 68.79%
    1999 321,416 455,305 133,889 70.59%
    2000 330,044 451,701 121,657 73.07%
    2001 332,850 450,513 117,663 73.88%
    2002 339,101 451,674 112,573 75.08%
    2003 345,156 453,792 108,636 76.06%
    2004 349,785 457,146 107,361 76.51%
    2005 354,587 459,717 105,130 77.13%
    2006 358,935 470,671 111,736 76.26%
    2007 377,999 477,430 99,431 79.17%
    2008 383,561 478,029 94,468 80.24%
    2009 383,824 473,184 89,360 81.12%
    2010 391,839 472,644 80,805 82.90%
    2011 398,351 471,025 72,674 84.57%
    2012 411,757 474,219 62,462 86.83%
    2013 410,982 474,791 63,809 86.56%
    2014 417,419 482,629 65,210 86.49%
    2015 432,569 486,567 53,998 88.90%
    2016 440,322 488,815 48,493 90.08%
    2017 450,234 491,790 41,556 91.55%
    
    HS participation chart.png
    Gap reduced by another 7000 or so (mostly because of a strong 10,000 addition to soccer). The trend remains about the same. Roughly 2024 soccer catches up.
     
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  12. Tom Ado

    Tom Ado Member

    Jun 25, 2015
    Interesting to see soccer had the largest increase in total participants since 2011-12, while football declined by 3.5%. Perhaps that stigmas associated with concussions/CTE that could drive kids away from football haven't made their way to soccer? (at least not yet)

    Ironically, maybe it's years of soccer being portrayed as a "sissy," "safe" and "non-contact" alternative to football that's partly why participation #'s are on a steady upward trajectory, while football and ice hockey are either stagnant or declining. Definitely helps that there haven't been any Junior Seau-type tragedies involving former soccer players to shed light on the issue.
     
  13. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    Yeah, it seems the effect of the national CTE conversation on HS soccer has been either nothing, or maybe even a little positive so far. There's probably more news to come on soccer and concussions, but I'm hoping that US Soccer has learned to react to such concerns. I like the banning of heading for young kids, since the research has shown that the accumulation of sub-concussive blows could be as important as actual concussions are, and kids' skulls at that age are not fully formed. Heading can wait. (Also, though it was maybe more for tactical reasons, USSF has just gotten rid of the goalkeeper punt at young ages, and adopted a set of rules for young players that essentially forces teams to build out from the back, which might help teach kids to play in a way that fosters fewer collisions.)
     
  14. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    An update was asked for in another thread, so here it is:

    Code:
    Year Soccer Baseball Gap
    1972 78,510
    
    
    1974 98,482
    
    
    1976 115,811
    
    
    1977 115,811
    
    
    1978 141,070
    
    
    1979 132,073
    
    
    1980 133,649
    
    
    1981 149,376
    
    
    1982 161,167
    
    
    1983 162,504
    
    
    1984 173,423 398,608 225,185 43.51%
    1985 180,281 391,810 211,529 46.01%
    1986 196,028 393,905 197,877 49.77%
    1987 203,984 406,046 202,062 50.24%
    1988 208,935 407,630 198,695 51.26%
    1989 218,973 412,825 193,852 53.04%
    1990 220,777 413,581 192,804 53.38%
    1991 228,380 419,015 190,635 54.50%
    1992 236,082 433,684 197,602 54.44%
    1993 242,095 430,401 188,306 56.25%
    1994 255,538 438,846 183,308 58.23%
    1995 272,810 440,503 167,693 61.93%
    1996 283,728 444,476 160,748 63.83%
    1997 296,587 444,248 147,661 66.76%
    1998 309,484 449,897 140,413 68.79%
    1999 321,416 455,305 133,889 70.59%
    2000 330,044 451,701 121,657 73.07%
    2001 332,850 450,513 117,663 73.88%
    2002 339,101 451,674 112,573 75.08%
    2003 345,156 453,792 108,636 76.06%
    2004 349,785 457,146 107,361 76.51%
    2005 354,587 459,717 105,130 77.13%
    2006 358,935 470,671 111,736 76.26%
    2007 377,999 477,430 99,431 79.17%
    2008 383,561 478,029 94,468 80.24%
    2009 383,824 473,184 89,360 81.12%
    2010 391,839 472,644 80,805 82.90%
    2011 398,351 471,025 72,674 84.57%
    2012 411,757 474,219 62,462 86.83%
    2013 410,982 474,791 63,809 86.56%
    2014 417,419 482,629 65,210 86.49%
    2015 432,569 486,567 53,998 88.90%
    2016 440,322 488,815 48,493 90.08%
    2017 450,234 491,790 41,556 91.55%
    2018 456,362 487,097 30,735 93.69%
    
    upload_2018-8-27_10-11-37.png

    The trends broadly keep continuing. If anything, baseball has stagnated a bit in recent years, moving the catch-up date up just slightly. (The gap has been cut by more than half in just the last five years.) But basically it stays about 2024.
     
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  15. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    #340 Stan Collins, Aug 28, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2018
    Wanted to update a chart from the first post, 11 years ago:


    Sport........'79/'80.....'17/'18....% Change
    Baseball..415,860..487,097....17.13%
    Bsktbll.....569,228..551,373....-3.14%
    Football...937,677.1,035,942..10.48%
    Track.......524,890..600,097.....14.33%

    Soccer....133,649..456,362.....241.46%
     
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  16. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Girls participation has increased from 1,042 in 1980 to 390,482 in 2017/18.

    That's a mighty 37236% increase.
     
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  17. Tom Ado

    Tom Ado Member

    Jun 25, 2015
    These progression charts definitely come in handy. Shows that soccer's growth is moderate, but sustained. Contradicts the proclamations of soccer zealots, who keep predicting an "explosion" every 4 years, and soccer detractors, who continue to insist "I've been hearing about soccer's growth since the 80s, and it hasn't happened!"
     
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  18. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Story from England:

    Children at football academies are more likely to 'get hit by a meteorite' than succeed as professionals – here’s the shocking statistic

    "The statistics are really sobering. Out of all the boys who enter an academy at the age of 9, less than half of 1% make it. Or a make a living from the game either.

    The most damning statistic of all is only 180 of the 1.5 million players who are playing organised youth football in England at any one time will make it as a Premier League pro.

    That's a success rate of 0.012%.

    The most damning statistic of all is only 180 of the 1.5 million players who are playing organised youth football in England at any one time will make it as a Premier League pro."


    That's 0.012%!

    Slighlty
    [​IMG]

    I work that out a 0.17%

    So if that's correct, an American high school soccer player has 50% more chance of playing professionally than a 9 year-old English academy player.

    So they are different age groups but the US number does not include any academy players who do not play high school soccer.
     
  19. Stan Collins

    Stan Collins Member+

    Feb 26, 1999
    Silver Spring, MD
    I don't think they were actually that careful. They appear to have just compared the raw number of HS players to the raw number of pros. For instance, the US pro number multiplied by the 'odds' gives you approximately the HS number. But that shouldn't be so, because the pros have the ability to play much longer than the HS kids (or, to be fair, they have the ability to have a shorter career as well, but it would be quite a coincidence if the length of the average pro career just so happened to be almost exactly the same as the HS career).

    So the intuition is, they weren't even aware of the kids playing in the Academy system, and not the HS system. I haven't tried to measure it precisely, but I get the sense that this number is in the range of 3,000 or so.
     
  20. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think one difference is that in the US we tend to have middle-class kids that give up the game, whereas the English numbers are more representative of working-class kids who are released from academies.
     
  21. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Why does it say Men's Basketball has 46 "Drafted to Pros" when each draft takes 60 players? Being drafted doesn't guarantee you play in the NBA, but the 256 given for NFL is 8 rounds of 32, so if the amount includes all drafted players for the NFL it should include all drafted players for the NBA. MLB is hard to work with because of all the players who play in the minors and were technically pro athletes but never reached MLB. The NBA has a G League (formerly Development League), but that has very few players compared to all of baseball's minor leagues combined. In addition, some players are drafted after high school, go to college, and are drafted again. That means that if five MLB drafts combined have X number of picks, the amount of different players is less than X.
     
  22. Paul Berry

    Paul Berry Member+

    Notts County and NYCFC
    United States
    Apr 18, 2015
    Nr Kingston NY
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    International players?
     
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  23. Tom Ado

    Tom Ado Member

    Jun 25, 2015
    I still contend that soccer and basketball give kids the most opportunities to play professionally because of the massive amount of leagues where you can make comfortable 6-7 figure annual salaries. MLS is probably the 15th best soccer league in the world and the top players can still earn 6-7 figures per year. The 15th best league in American football, baseball or ice hockey (if they even have 15 pro leagues) would not pay you that amount.

    Baseball has a robust minor league system, but almost every guy is making $20k/year. And if you can't latch onto an NFL team, good luck finding a football league that will pay 6-7 figures because it ain't happening in the CFL or the now four-team Arena Football League.
     
  24. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Flash Score lists 16 countries with American Football leagues, 24 countries with baseball leagues, and 27 countries with hockey leagues. In some cases the leagues play much fewer games than the American leagues in those sports. The Czech Republic plays 27 regular season baseball games, which is 1/6th of MLB.
     
  25. bigredfutbol

    bigredfutbol Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 5, 2000
    Woodbridge, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    But there's also a bigger talent pool for those sports to draw on.
     

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