Mali won't qualify. They simply have no attacking force. I rather Ghana or even the Comoros in that group. Funny that no one has Cape Verde on their list anymore?! They were dominant at the AFCON and the better of 2 teams in their QF vs. South Africa. Cameroon were lacklusture and not a force at all. Both are leading the group with 4 point, together with Libya and Angola is also still there with 2 points out of 2. I am looking forward to June, when Cameroon will host Cape Verde in what might be a group decider match.
I agree with you, that I think one of Angola or Cape Verde will upset Cameroon. But you are wrong about Mali. They have one of the best midfields in Africa. They were missing their 2 top strikers at the last AFCON. They completely outplayed CIV, and were the only team to do so at the AFCON. They played a better game vs CIV than Nigeria or Senegal. Comoros cannot compete with Mali and Ghana is a mess right now.
I stick with my earlier picks, namely Mali from CAF and Uzbekistan from the AFC. Jordan, however, has now become another possible candidate given their showing at the Asian Cup.
Jordan is an interesting case. I think we shouldn't make the mistake to expect too much from them. Jordan are for me a side who thrives at short tournaments such as the Asian Cup but I don't regard them as a side who has the ingredients or the quality to come out alive of a very long-winded WCQ format. I estimate Jordan's chances roughly the same such as for say Bahrain albeit the former having impressed much more at the Asian Cup. But WCQ is a different setting and requires something else. Not sure whether Jordan have what it takes.... They just may go back to their usual selves after this Asian Cup which was more or less hovering around the status of a top 15 AFC team.
It's not that I didn't rate Mali. I was thinking after the decent World Cup Ghana had that they would go on to build something with the many dual national they had acquired in the lead-up to the World Cup. But they have regressed under Chris Houghton. We'll see whether they can have a comeback under a new manager. As of now I'd favour Mali to seal the ticket but a lot could change. Cape Verde are probably right now marginally better than Angola. But their squad is ageing. Angola have some young talents and a better future IMO. Since the bulk of games in WCQ will be played in the second half of this year + in 2025 I think Angola have better odds to qualify. But then again Angola wouldn't be debutants. But they would be a surprise team to qualify. I hope they'll do it as they were in my 48 team prediction before a ball in WCQ was kicked.
Jordan are legitimately good. Upfront very talented and dangerous. Physically strong too. Capable of playing both a low bloc as well as a more aggressive style (albeit a bit slow defensively if they venture out too much). The main question mark about them is their future manager as the Moroccan manager wants to resign due to family issues.
I Can see that I voted for Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Mali and Cape Verde. Of Those 4, I am pretty sure of uzbekistan and Venezuela. Venezuela off course because the start they have had, so it looks good for Them. Regarding Mali and Cape Verde. I believe in Them, but the AFCON showed me that its impossible to predict anything in Africa. Equatorial Guinea is Dark horse for me. They have a solid team and are hard to beat. And Tunisia isnt that good at the moment, so I Can see Equatorial Guinea qualifying. Or at least giving Tunisia a very hard run for their money. Jordan did really really well in the Asian Cup, but I wouldnt have them among the favourites to qualify yet. We often see teams perform really well at tournaments, and then fail in the qualifiers. But if Al-Tamari is on form, you cant write them off. He was really really good at the Asian Cup. Its hard to say anything about the European teams before the draw is made
Agreed on most of your points. Although I have to say Venezuela may not be as much of a shoo-in now that Chile has Gareca and Paraguay has found a good crop of U-23 youngsters. It is going to come down to the wire.
Agreed. Also, despite a solid start to the qualifying campaign, Venezuela haven't built any sort of advantage over Uruguay, Colombia, or Ecuador. So, it may come down to needing to finish above Paraguay and Chile.
Im not sure of Paraguay and Chile. None of Them have impressed me, and Paraguays next 3 qualifying matches are very tough. They May not get any points. I cant see both of Them passing Venezuela. Even if one of them does, Venezuela are still guaranteed a play off spot. Of course nothing is for sure, but they are in a good space, and are getting good results. Furthermore I really hope they manage to qualify. If I should guess which of Paraguay and Chile that is going to Challenge Them the most, im guessing Chile. They have the experience
CONMEBOL qualifying is a long and grueling task. Tactical changes and younger players being phased in can be the difference. Venezuela is off to a great start but still has a lot to do before 2026.
Paraguay's next three matches are very tough indeed. However, I can say the same thing about Venezuela's next three matches too.
Indeed it is long and tough and far from over. And since its over a long period of time, players, tactics and managers Can change. But I still Think Venezuela Will get atleast a play off spot. I really dont rate Paraguay that much and Chiles Golden generation is over. Meanwhile Peru has had a terrible start and Bolivia is Bolivia. Again, I know nothing is certain, but I cant see 3 of those 4 teams surpassing Venezuela. And Paraguays next 3 matches are Away vs Uruguay Home va Brazil Away vs Ecuador
I keep thinking back to Ecuador's hot start to 2018 WCQ as a cautionary tale... then I remember, there were fewer berths on offer back then
Yea exactly, there are 2 more spots available now. And they are competing against Paraguay and Chile (unless Peru goes on a crazy run)
Venezuela is making it. They have a rough stretch now but IMO they just need 10 or so points. They still have Bolivia and Peru at home which are very winnable games and away games to Paraguay and Chile (winning either would be a massive step). Plus, they can always hope to grind a draw at home against one of the top teams or at the away game in Bolivia. Here's a nice conmebol calculator you can use to test all the permutations for the remaining fixtures: PROMIEDOS - ELIMINATORIAS CONMEBOL MUNDIAL 2026 - TABLAS - FIXTURES
They need a lot more than 10. Since CONMEBOL adopted this format 19 has only been enough for 7th (the playoff) 2 years and one was the year without Brazil so everyone had less points that year. 24 would probably be the same number needed. I still think they get there but they have a long way to go. List of the 6th and 7th place teams points in CONMEBOL qualifying below: 1998- 21, 21 2002- 27, 18 2006- 24, 22 2010- 23, 23 2014- 20, 15 (no Brazil) 2018- 26, 24 2022- 23, 19
I know that but I'm predicting the top 5 teams (which IMO will be ARG, URU, BRA, COL & ECU) will lose almost no games to the bottom 5 this time. Even more, I think ARG, URU & BRA will all finish with 34+ points, which would be unprecedented.
Yeah, and in 2022 Argentina and Brazil combined for 87 points (after adding 3 pts for their game-in-hand). Safe to say that isn't happening this time, hence more points for others.
I already argued the difference is that Uruguay is also up there this time. -Argentina are already outperforming their last cycle. -Anyone that thinks Uruguay won't be over 32 is deluded. -Brazil is underperforming but they lost 3 games to the other top 3 ranked teams, with an interim coach and no Neymar/Vinicius in two of them. Plenty of room to finish above 30.
Brazil is not hitting 34. they would need 27 points from 12 games. They still have 2 matches against Argentina/Ecuador and 1 each against Colombia and Uruguay. Even if they run the table against everyone else... they would need 9 points from those 6 games which would be a tall order. Draws are gonna happen. Qualifying is weird. No team in CONMEBOL this century has gotten less than 10 points. CONMEBOL has already seen 8 draws through 1/3 of qualiying, The last two cycles has 21 and 22 draws. that drops points. On top of that, you are going to see teams this cycle be safe REALLY early. Argentina might have 2 windows to play around or rest players or whatnot. They have Chile and Ecuador away and Venezuela and Colombia at home those last 2 windows. If they are already qualified, they are way more likely to get 3 points from those windows than 9.
Argentina and Brazil qualified like 5 rounds early last time yet they kept beating everyone afterwards. Neither rested any players barring injuries or suspensions, ranking is important for world cup seeding. Brazil has Paraguay H&A, Chile H&A, Ecuador H&A. Then they have away games to Bolivia, Venezuela and Argentina. Home games with Colombia, Uruguay and Peru. 8 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss is doable. Don't think it's asking too much from a team of their caliber.