The US Supreme Court Thread - Post Roe v. Wade reversal edition

Yes. But overruling rights granted by a state constitution as interpreted by a state Supreme Court would be…something.

This is an easy take to make from Germany. We have an achievable constitutional means of fixing this (50+1, 218 and the Presidency). I think you vastly underestimate the disaster that would come from tearing up the constitution…not just for the US…but for the world. The economic effects of a US civil war would be felt globally. And even were we to avoid a war and manage this relatively peacefully…the likely outcome would be far worse for a large minority of our population than what we have now…warts and all. There are states that do not want to extend the same rights to all of our citizens. The constitution is what is (barely) holding the, back. No constitution…no roadblocks.

 

Disband the Supreme Court? You cannot be serious with this. Pass legislation adding 4 justices. Even if the rogue 6 try to not recognize the legislatures constitutional power to do so…the scoreboard would be 7-6.

 

Every single morning I have a vitamin, a shit, and a completely absurd and derisible scream into the void by @The Jitty Slitter

 

I agree that it is hard. Unfortunately..after this election…Dems aren’t gonna be able to run on just not being Trump. And if they get a trifecta at any time in the next 4 years and don’t attempt legislation…Kamala will be a one term president.

 

And by attempt I mean bring it to the floor. None of this “we don’t have the votes” shit. Force a vote. Force the no’s to go in record…so Dems that actually give a shit about this country can know who to target in primaries.

 

Um... they also haven't had the votes to target them in the primaries? There's never been any difficulty identifying them.

 

What you suggest is a revolution in all but name.

If no constitutional remedies are available, then the democratic forces might have to accept to take the first blow - unpleasant as it might be.
Unfortunately, a large part of the US population aren't clear eyed about the danger and if the democratic forces are the first to call for (and act to) disbanding the Constitution, that will delegitimize them.
Allowing the anti-democratic forces to strike first might be a risk, but one which I feel has to be taken.
As for this electoral autocracy being near impossible to break without a popular revolution, I disagree with the pessimism implied. A MAGA autocracy would have a ton of weaknesses and would be extremely fragile. For instance, it does not have a clear leader which can take control over long-term: Trump is 78 years old and showing clear signs of cognitive decline. If in 4 years from now, he won't be capable even to sign his name, then what?
Right now, a lot of people have forgotten about 6 January and treat it like a non-event because it has not affected them personally, like the economic woes of the last 4 years did, but if the MAGA collapses the US economy during their rule, we would be looking at a different picture.
The last time an economic meltdown happened on Republican's watch, the Democrats won the presidency 53 to 46, had a 58/60-40/42 majority in the Senate and a 255-179 majority in the House.
You don't stop that kind of defeat without outright cheating - and I mean not some equivocal voter suppression, but actual altering of ballots by the millions - Stalinist style. And that kind of cheating would lead to massive street protests and riots - which I don't think a MAGA regime will have the means to suppress. In order to do that, you need to have a massive loyal force willing to use lethal force to defend the regime - your usual MAGA might vent and rage, but outside of a minority of nutjobs, I think even hardcore Republicans would recoil at the prospect of having to mow down their neighbours and countrymen.

 

I think you underestimate the number who would gladly do it...if they had a bully next to them to show how it is done. Ie, whipped into a mob with well placed militia. They'd happily engage in Kristalnacht activities.

 

We kinda saw what numbers Trump can really count on when the shit hits the fan.
On 6 January 2021, Trump managed to get maybe up to 10,000 schmucks for his coup attempt - and that was all. If they would have been 1 million, Trump might be president today.
Also, when Trump was convicted, it's not as if there was mass protests all over America.
The MAGA will happily yell "Mass deportation now" at rallies and make online threats because it is easy and (mostly) free of consequences, but actually getting a firearm and gather with other like-minded individuals to put down anti-Trumpers involves an effort and a perceivable danger.

Besides, something like Kristallnacht is not enough. That was state-sponsored violence exercised against a small minority. If the protests become widescale, you need the army/national guard or a well-organised paramilitary force like the SA in Nazi Germany or the Basiji in Iran to suppress them effectively.

The big question is whether the non-MAGA part of the country will meekly accept the demise of American democracy or not. If they do, then this is it, indeed: you can't have a democracy if the people don't give a ******** about it. However, if they don't and it comes to a fight, I am convinced a MAGA autocracy will fold like a cheap suit.

Maybe I am idealistic, but my country got rid of a far more consolidated dictatorship only 35 years ago, despite having to watch over our shoulder for a possible soviet intervention, and I really refuse to believe that the American people will meekly submit to such a caricature of dictatorship that a MAGA regime would be.

 

Make them household names. Make their names toxic. And I’m already assuming Manchin is a no…though I don’t think he’s running again anyway. But force him to do more than speak to the press while running down the hallway. Make him record his vote. He’ll…make it a roll call vote where he has to say “nay” out loud.

Same for any house members.

 

But that's just it-- the court will do something about it. Having surrendered all claim to honesty, their only remaining drive will be the exercise of power; and when the progressives have no more there'll be only one target left.

The era of 7 figure salaries and the gold toileted courthouse in Maui will begin... It's ALIVE!! ITS ALIVE!!!

 

Great couple of posts. My one issue is I think you underestimate how close to the tipping point law enforcement is in this country. The largest police union in the country endorsed a convicted felon….that is currently on trial for way more serious felonies. I’ve never been convinced that shit like Back the Blue happened organically. It’s prepping.

Edit to tie into this thread: I’ll admit I feel like a conspiracy believing nut job any time I say this…but there was clearly a decades long scheme to capture the court. I am convinced that those same forces push things like back the blue…in order to prep for the inevitable backlash. Their goal is an oligarchy like Russia. That can’t happen without police forces loyal to the party in charge. Hence pushing for a politicized division of the police.(see also the GOP finger ********ing Russia for the last decade)

 

Voting for Trump is one thing. Putting down anti-Trump protests with lethal force is another.

The fact that a big police union endorsed Trump in an election means absolutely nothing for that scenario. Also, if the protests are big enough, your regular law enforcement is not enough. You need the military or paramilitary forces: actual regiments, not just cops.

As I've said before, the possible scenarios how a MAGA dictatorship will come down would be something akin to the Maidan Revolution, the Serbian protests of 2000 who overthrew Milosevic or, at worst, the Romanian Revolution of 1989.
Ianukovic, Milosevic and Ceausescu, all had security services devoted to them and who had things to lose if the regime was overthrown: and they did try to suppress the protests at first. However, the security forces were not enough. And when the protesters refused to be cowed, and the Army/Law Enforcement had to contemplate a wholesale slaughter, they abandoned the regime.

Again, it remains to be seen whether the Americans will display the same courage as the Ukrainians, Serbs and Romanians.
But the American Law Enforcement and Military to be more willing to slaughter protesters than Ceausescu's Securitate and his Army indoctrinated by 45 years of Communism? It's difficult to envision such a historical disgrace.

But if we are lucky, we will never have to find out.

 

Excellent rebuttals and I do appreciate them.

My counter on the police angle is we saw how cops responded to BLM. It's not the same thing but it is closest we have. We also saw the paralysis during J6. It'd take the both of them and further to get to Kristal but the groundwork is already being prepared. It won't take much more massaging to get there. A Kristal against trans people? Not such a crazy idea.

To install him in January? No but I don't think he is relying on that. He's relying on the courts and institutions and meekness of liberal Democrats to do that.

I say let's just vote in such numbers it doesn't matter.

Re the conspiracy....not a crazy idea as there is one. Not in the typical conspiracy theory way but yes, there are a group of connected individuals who have been working for decades and spent godly amounts of money to get us here. Heritage is a big part of that.

 

Some prominent pastors are actively grooming their followers for battle, and not just metaphorically, just as the same pastors had them do on January 6.

Some other snippets:

 

emails ovaries, and drones

 

WTF refers to Charlie as a "political operative"? Whoever does owes an apology to those two words. Lol.

Thanks for the link!

 

I think you are seriously overestimating the abilities of the Republicans to put such plans into action.
For instance, after Trump was convicted in New York, there were MAGA who started dreaming of exactly this thing. I have seen calls like this "Republicans have to make Democrats play by their own rules. They have to inflict pain ruthlessly on Democrats with endless show trials and lawfare, just as Democrats have done to Trump." This quote comes from one racist nutjob from The Federalist, called John Daniel Davidson (https://thefederalist.com/2024/05/3...-should-do-to-democrats-what-they-did-to-him/), the same who in 2022 was dreaming about making United States a Christian theocracy (https://thefederalist.com/2022/10/20/we-need-to-stop-calling-ourselves-conservatives/). Davidson has some specific advice: "Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton should immediately indict President Biden and Attorney General Merrick Garland for the ongoing crisis at the border, which in every way is a criminal human-trafficking conspiracy that they have orchestrated and sustained by flouting federal immigration law."
However, until now it has been all talk, because, contrary to Republican rhetoric, it isn't that easy to come up with fabricated charges and make them stick - and any prosecutor who would dare to simply fabricate evidence would be risking his own freedom. The Republican leadership, beholden to Trump as they are, have not taken up that call.

Running your mouth on twitter or on Fox News, political obstructionism or throwing sand into the gears of the Republic with legal chicanery is one thing. Going full Hitler is a completely different ball game. Some nutjobs might be willing to try, but I don't think they are anywhere near enough.
Sure, if Trump gets elected and the DOJ is further compromised, they could attempt to do what this Davidson advises.
I do expect abuses from a potential Trump administration - hence why I am always thundering against it. But I do think American democracy can survive Trump - albeit not without him causing a lot of damage in return. Things like arresting political opponents by the hundreds or a Kristallnacht against trans people like El Naranja suggested is a sure recipe for a general anti-Trump revolt.

El Naranja is pessimistic because of how the cops responded to BLM. However, the BLM protests also involved a lot of reckless vandalism - which made the cops feel like they were in the right and the protests in the wrong - and occurred over an issue which wasn't really the administration's fault. BLM were social protests, they were not a clear cut struggle between a tyrannical government and a fed up population, with battle lines clearly drawn. But if a MAGA regime organized a pogrom against a specific minority or started to arrest its opponents en masse, we would be exactly in such a situation. And I would not bet on this MAGA regime being able to effectively utilize the law enforcement to suppress a revolt in such a case. There would be MAGA sympathizers within the ranks of course, but there will also be plenty of cops who were never MAGA to begin with and plenty of those who would have been disgusted by the actions of the government (because, in order to reach that point, the government must have done something truly egregious first, like the examples mentioned). That kind of dissension would not work in the MAGA government's favor.

And, when the discontent piles up drip by drip, then anything can become a spark. The Romanian revolution of 1989 broke out over a trifle - the trigger was an attempt by the Securitate to evacuate a minister of the Reformed Church, Laszlo Tokes, from his church house. The event was insignificant in the grand scheme of things - but the hatred for Ceausescu in 1989 was so great and widespread that that was all it took.

 

I really want you to be right, but things will be different in the West between the Mississippi and the Sierras & Cascades. I know, that’s mainly land with not a lot of people, but there is a sentiment out here that is a bit frightening in their paranoia and willingness to lash out.