I wanted a thread for analysis of the Adu trade's implications for DC's competitiveness, rather than for mere reaction. In short, I'm wondering a) whether the trade will turn out a good one for DC and b) what it means for DC United as a franchise in the new "Designated Player MLS." 1st. Is this a good trade? I don't know. It's a conditional trade with at least 3 possible outcomes. Here are the 3 main options: Option 1) Freddy stays long term. Salt Lake gets: Freddy Adu & Nick Rimando & the money from Adu's marketing boost (shirts, tickets, sponsorships). DC Gets: A major allocation ($), Jay Nolly, and a high draft pick (1st round?). My opinion: Trading Nick Rimando & Freddy Adu for Jay Nolly, a major allocation, and a 1st round pick is no steal. If anything, it's a really good deal for Salt Lake. Not only do they get a player to build their franchise around, they've gone a long way toward building their team's brand and boosting their revenue. Option 2) Freddy leaves after 2007. It's the same situation as above, except that RSL and DC split the money from Freddy's transfer. My opinion: While we don't know how they'll split the money, this is still a good move for RSL. It also makes it a better move for DC, since they get more money. Option 3) Freddy leaves mid-2007 RSL gets: Freddy for part of the year, Nick Rimando, & part of Freddy's transfer $. DC gets: Jay Nolly, a major allocation, & part of Freddy's transfer $. My opinion: This would be a slightly bad move for RSL soccer wise, but it'd have a harsher impact on their marketing since it makes them look 2nd rate. It's a good trade for DC since they get rid of Freddy early and can plan for the upcoming season, plus they double dip on Freddy's transfer. Overall, the sooner Freddy leaves, the worse for RSL and the better for DC. In addition, looking at the above scenarios leads me to believe that the decision to trade Adu rather than anyone else was driven primarily by United's (Nowak's) unwillingness to find a role for Adu that both kept him happy and benefited the team. 2nd. What are the ramifications of the trade in a DP MLS? I think it's helpful to consider whether other teams would have made this trade. Houston might have. Like DC, they don't have much money. But I'm fairly sure that RBNY, Chivas, and the LA Galaxy wouldn't have made this trade. They'd have made a trade for a DP slot and the player traded wouldn't have been Adu; it would've been an aging Jaime Moreno. Why? Kasper claims the money was needed to target new players. But DC only needs the money because they are a poor club right now. The rich clubs like RBNY don't need allocation money for transfers and loan fees. They have owners who're willing to spend $. Rather than trade a young star and valuable marketing asset for $, they would've found a way to keep the young guy happy and traded the aging star for the right to spend money (a DP slot). Then they would've gone out and spent their own $ on a marquee replacement. What's that mean for DC? I think it means that DC United is a franchise whose financial strength doesn't match its ambition. They want to succeed internationally and in MLS. However, the team has a lot of weaknesses: 1) Moreno's age. 2) a quality striker 3) decent wingers. It looks like DC traded Adu because they're facing a roster full of holes and needed $ to fill them. The problem is, even with the money they've traded for, it's going to take a sensational amount of savvy to find players good enough to compete with clubs (like RBNY) who can just go out and spend money because their owners have it.
I think Nick is more of a potential implication than Freddy. With Nick, we had a quality backup if/when Perkins goes down for some reason. At least for the time being we don't. (Note: I believe this is a good move for Nick as I don't think he belongs on the bench) So I see the loss of Nick as potentially effecting more than one or two games. If we get a draft pick from Freddy's part of the deal, I think it will be a late one. The way I read Goff's piece was that the draft pick was if he stays all season and it's round was to be based on his performance. If he is performing well (i.e. early pick), then I think he is likely to be picked up in the Summer trade window. If he isn't playing well, then I don't expect him to get picked up (since i'm sure MLS will be asking a premium), which means a later pick. If Piotr had been more wont to use him interchangeably with Gomez, I think there would be more implications to us, but I see his wing play as something that is relatively easily replaced. This leaves us with only being impacted on the rare occasions that we face RSL assuming he gets there and his career takes off (and we play them before he leaves). It would have been nice to get the full $$ when he goes, but I think this was a great deal on our part to A) let Freddy go where he has a better chance of playing his natural position (and having the team built around him), B) free up the roster/cap space to bring in players that fit our system/coach a little better, and C) still get a fair chunk of change for him in the process. -dave
This is the only thing I can agree with. You seem to be mixing/confusing allocations and the DP implications. As I see the situation now, DCU has two full allocations and a DP slot. The trade, not picking up Donnet's option, plus the increase in the cap provides salary $ for the Brazilian and Argentine (using the allocations, i.e. $) and the DP. I am not sure what NYRB having deep pockets has to do with the allocation process as you seem to indicate. As far as I understand, allocation money is used in transfers, not money from the owners pocket. Owners money is only used for the portion of the DP salary above 400K. Hopefully, DCU will soon have new ownership and that they have the ability to pay for a quality DP.
I'm not confused. I think the difference is that you think MLS created a set of rules for everyone when it created the DP situation. I believe they created a set of flexible rules that allow teams to do whatever they want with their DP slots (a player that a team can pay over 400k out of its own pocket). Allocation money is money that the league will pay. RBNY doesn't have to worry about that. They can pay a DP player a TON of money, allocations or not. DC United is far more limited since we don't have owners willing to spend a lot of money. Hence, DC has to trade for league money (allocation money).
I think we are like two ships passing in the night. Yes, the league pays the allocation money. Yes, RBNY can pay a DP a TON of money, this has nothing to do with an allocation. Yes, DC is far more limited because they don't have a sugar daddy like RBNY. Yes, DC traded for the allocation money, and it will use it to pay a transfer for an allocation. It has nothing to do with the owner paying out of pocket money. Therefore, the wealth of Red Bull is irrelevant. It is only relevant for paying a DP.
IIRC, Freddy was going to come to DC United whether Nowak wanted him or not and he was going to play. We all know the Freddy media circus and the problems that caused within the team. Now that the distractions are gone and the money has appeared Nowak can go and get a player that he wants to fit his system. I expect to see a renewed Nowak that can guide a team truly made in his image. Freddy just wasn't a Nowak guy and it was an uncomfortable fit for everyone.
competitive implications? They're quite simple actually... Teams developed a strategy to beat us and it became quite effective. Mug Moreno and Gomez, dare someone else to beat them, congest midfield, on offense play directly and too the wings so the DCU backline loses shape (with the lack of outside mid support) and also pressure the backline so they either delay the transition or provide poor service. Teams have been trying to do this to us for a while and Chicago and TFKAM and NE have been able to make it work more than once. Sometimes that has come in really big games (playoffs in 2005 is a glaring example). You can try and scheme it away. You can ask players to run harder. You can tinker. But the bottom line is...if Adu and Donnet are your outside mid tandem, you're going to get torched. If you don't have a really good sniper/poacher (that's not Moreno), than teams will focus on Moreno and Gomez and dare us to beat them. Maybe Eskandarian will become great. Maybe some of our other outside mids (Moose, DeRoux, Gros--talk about a lowbudget group of players) will become a huge two-way force (to be fair, Gros sometimes is). But after 2 years of keeping the team together and tinkering and playing with tactics and hoping, we've shown that if a team determinedly goes at us with that approach, we stand a very good chance of losing. So...we need to upgrade at forward by adding a good poach/finisher/sniper. Someone who scores goals against the run of play. Someone who punishes teams for congesting midfield. Someone who feasts on the space he gets when teams focus on Moreno up top. And we need to add a strong 2-way outside midfielder (maybe that will be Olsen if we played Simms at holding mid, re-sign Carroll and use our dollars on defense and forward). If we fill those 2 needs--a very good forward who scores goals and a very good proven 2-way outside mid, than we're a radically different team. We're a team that can rest Gomez and especially Moreno more. We're a team that the usual past strategies don't work against. But unless you're hoping you can find a Bobby Boswell or Troy Perkins for cheap and turn them into a star overnight, the only way to acquire those 2 players is with bucks. So the competitive implications of this deal are simple: for DCU to make the kind of changes necessary to really address the scheme teams have evolved into against us, we had to jetison some major pieces ($-wise) so we'd have cap room to be able to afford those players. Subnote: if we re-sign Donnet as an outside mid, that means our priority shifts to adding a very good defender. I like Namoff, he's a great budget player. But imagine if our backline was Bobby Boswell, Facundo Erpen and someone like Diego Sonora or Dan Califf or someone of that ilk--someone who'd be an all-star candidate? At that point we can be more tolerant of an outside mid who doesn't get back as much (plus you hopefully have Gros on the other side). This trade gives us the tools (cap room, allocation) to acquire the talent we need. As for RSL, forget the ticket/merchandise sales and stadium approval (which makes this trade worthwhile for them). If Adu and the U-20's advance, if Adu gets selected to Gold Cup, by the time the August transfer window rolls around, Freddy may have played all of 10 games for RSL. I do think his best position is A-mid, he'll be super motivated for this season. But as the de facto starter, teams will target him (no more than they do any other A-mid: DeRo, Gomez, Guevara). Guys like O'Rourke and Armas and Marsch will man-mark him, deny him space, foul him off the ball and try to get inside his head. He'll eventually adjust--but not in 10 games worth of season. And Freddy has a lot of learning to do on how to play A-mid at the professional level--the technical skills are important but the least critical aspect of being a great A-mid. So from a competitiveness standpoint, I think RSL will hurt. Especially since if Freddy is their a-mid, then he's not there for big chunks of the season. Imagine us trying to adjust to missing Gomez for part of the pre-season and then maybe 6 weeks in two chunks. Of course, maybe he won't get picked for the Gold Cup. Or maybe he'd get picked for the Gold Cup AND the Copa!
I don't think that RSL's and DCU's success are inversely correlated. If Salt Lake does well with Freddy it doesn't mean that the decision was a bad one. Both teams can be successful. The comparison of relevance is what type of team we would have been with Freddy again for another year vs. the type of team we can be with whoever it is that they bring in. At this stage it's still all potential. If they bring in a guy who lights up the league like the Fish, we'll be in great shape, but if we get Lothar, then it will be shit. IMO we need someone who can have an impact quickly rather than someone who can adapt to the league and become good. As JoeW notes, we need a player and a change of system so we can be dangerous and make other teams change their systems to try to react. Otherwise the effective defensive approaches of Chicago and others will likely continue. Although I think it would really help the team if everybody didn't say "Who" when they announce the player next week, I have hopes (not necessarily faith) that KP and Nowak will find another gem like Gomez. Imagining the team playing more beautifully than last year will make the next few months go a lot quicker.
I think we also need to keep in mind the competitive environment DC will be facing next year. With (hopefully) a deep run in the CCC, the US-Mex competition, USOC, and MLS league schedule we not only need to shore up deficiencies but have quality backups. That is one area losing Freddy hurts. He was capable of playing forward, central mid, or either wing. Top needs for starters would be at forward and on the wing. I just don't think Olsen could handle the physical beat-down of primarily playing on the wing - though he can fill in quite well. And then we need to somehow get a player that can capably fill in for Gomez, a high quality defender, either as a starter or primary substitute, and really we need a fourth forward...I don't think Walker is it...too many technical flaws in his game. My main concern is that we have gone from 2 capable backups for Gomez to none. What happens if he gets injured? But spending the money for a replacement isn't a high priority compared to other needs. Can Donnet play centrally? If I'm DCU, my to do list is; **re-sign Donnet or use that money on high quality winger who can fill in in the middle **(How good is Carroll Jr.? We need a 3rd d-mid in this system, so either we have a capable replacement or we need to re-sign BC) **bring in the Argie/Brasilian forward (or Wanchope?) **bring in the Argie/Brasilian winger **bring in a starter-quality defender with positional flexibility (Prideaux is fine for MLS, but I don't see him going down to Guadalajara, for example, and bringing us back a trophy, and God help us if Erpen doesn't mature a little in his decision making) **bring in a fourth forward to push for playing time there, that's easy, eh? God help me but you know who would be a GREAT acquisition for us (no way his current team will part with him though) - Kenny Cooper
Kenny Cooper looks like he could be a real stud - then he vanishes for two games, not sure what's up with him, may just be young-ness. How do folks feel about Eddie Lewis as that wide dangerous-crossing player? I know he wasn't scouted in Brazil or Argentina though, unless he flew down to meet them for steaks
Cooper is young which is probably a factor in any inconsistency, and he can play forward or fill-in on the wing. As for Lewis...he'd be great on the left but a little one-dimensional. Totally out of DCU's price range though, and we have no forward who will do justice to his service.
Funny you mention Wanchope. I was watching the Argentine Soccer Highlights show last night on FSC and saw his goal for Rosario Central. From what I gathered seeing a few highlights from this season, it looks like he has had a decent season with them. I was thinking...mmm...DC has had a player from RC in the past (Mario Gori)...wonder if they still have ties with the club and have taken a look at 'chope?
I dont think we could afford wanchope.... I think we should get joaquin botero, bolivian striker who is without a team right now due to him leaving san lorenzo of argentina...