Rumor: The shifting sands for 17 and 18

Discussion in 'MLS: Expansion' started by Z010 Union, Jun 17, 2008.

  1. lawrenceterp

    lawrenceterp Moderator
    Staff Member

    Sep 2, 2006
    Virginia
    Detroit is not the largest untapped market in the country. Atlanta is. Detroit is stagnating population-wise while other cities are growing rapidly. If you use numbers from 2000 Detroit is the 9th largest market in the US and would be the largest without an MLS team. But the 2007 numbers already show it 12th overall and behind Atlanta and Miami as cities without MLS teams. If you extrapolate the population changes out over the next 14 years they'll drop even further down to 14th and be behind Phoenix as well.

    The city that hasn't been brought up in the past couple pages is Las Vegas. They're growing so fast that if they stay on the same path will go from 39th in 2000 to 21st in 2021. That's where we should be headed. To these cities that are largely untapped by the other major team sports and are growing faster then any other cities in the country. Other cities that fit that bill are Orlando (will go from 24th in 2000 to 18th in 2021), Charlotte (30th to 23rd), Sacramento (25th to 24th) and San Antonio (33rd to 28th). These are cities that if given an MLS team might really adopt them as their teams because they don't have (many) other teams already there as competition. I'm not advocating going solely to those cities but they should be on the radar. Especially Vegas.

    My personal choice for expansion would go like this (taking into account the cities that are already being heavily mentioned and other factors like the market size, potential rivals already in place and the lack of an MLB team to compete with)....

    2011 - Portland, St. Louis
    2012 - Las Vegas, New York
    2013 - Montreal, Vancouver

    Then after those cities are in place you slow it way down and start going after those cities I listed that will soon be top media markets and population centers. For example I'd love to see Disney buy a team and put them in Orlando. You want ESPN to start pimping MLS, well it would happen immediately if this occurred.
     
  2. blazindw

    blazindw Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jul 30, 2007
    Washington, DC
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm quoting this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_United_States_primary_census_statistical_areas

    This table has Atlanta 10, So. Fla. 11 and Detroit 12. However, only 200,000 people separate the 3 cities, and only 8,000 separate So. Fla. and Detroit, fairly negligible (between So. Fla. and Detroit). Also, this census area only calculates U.S. population. For Detroit, you can add Windsor (323,000 metropolitan area), Chatham (108,000), and Sarnia (88,000) to the area. Arguably you can add London, Ontario (457,000) to the area, as it is halfway between Detroit and Toronto and there are many fans there who support Detroit teams as well as Toronto teams. Finally, Port Huron, MI (32,000) should be included, as many people there work in the Detroit metro area and it's generally included as part of the area by locals.

    You also have to strike the size of the South Florida market, because as I know from living down there 3 years and what MLS already knows...Miami, Ft. Lauderdale and West Palm, though part of the general metropolitan area, are viewed as 3 separate cities. The Fusion was in Ft. Lauderdale, and people in Miami viewed the team as being too far to attend. Something in Miami won't really attract people from West Palm to go down on a regular basis (West Palm is 70+ miles from downtown Miami, and with rush hour traffic in both directions, it can take upwards of 2 hours to make that trip). Something in West Palm? you lose Miami-Dade and half of Broward county. Atlanta is very spread out as well, with part of their area including parts of the eastern part of Alabama, who I know first hand don't really identify with Atlanta teams outside the Braves (my mom's family is all from Alabama, so I spend a lot of time there annually). Also, an Atlanta team could not be placed in the suburbs like Gwinnett County, as it would lose support from residents who live closer to the center of Atlanta.

    This is where I was going when I said Detroit has the biggest untapped market, bigger than So. Fla and Atlanta.
     
  3. napolisoccer

    napolisoccer Member

    NYCFC - Napoli
    Feb 20, 2005
    Napoli
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    2011 : St Louis and New York City
    2012 : Montreal and Portland / Atlanta
     
  4. pabloM

    pabloM New Member

    Feb 21, 2004
    Miami
    Club:
    Miami FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Miami and St Louis : 2011
     
  5. RedRover

    RedRover BigSoccer Supporter

    Aug 15, 2007
    2011 : St. Louis and Montreal
    2012 : Portland and Vancouver
     
  6. KingsCountyFC

    KingsCountyFC Member

    Nov 6, 2007
    BK - NY / Louisiana
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    2011: Fargo, ND - Fredricksburg VA
    2012: Juno, Alaska - Shreveport, LA
    I heard they have a huge Latino population...
     
  7. Durian Durian

    Durian Durian New Member

    Jul 10, 2008
    Vancouver
    I think Shreveport might be off the list, they've already had a (Canadian) Football team :D

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Raven49er

    Raven49er Member

    May 26, 2005
    Fairfax, VA
    I think one thing that could make things easier for the league is if Chivas USA simply moves to one of these potential markets. That way, the fans in that city could presumably get their own team and MLS could finally put a stake into the heart of the weak sister of MLS.

    The whole Chivas USA thing is a complete fraud, and everyone knows it. I know there are some diehard Chivas USA fans who do attend the games, and I respect you guys, but this whole experiment is a failure. It's as if Liverpool put a team in Detroit and called it Liverpool Detroit. It's blatantly stupid, especially sine you're putting the name of another entity/city in front of the town it's located in. It's second rate, and the world's only superpower shouldn't tolerate being treated second-rate in anything, let alone soccer.

    I say, take Chivas, move the team up to St. Louis or something. MLS won't have to agonize over creating another team; they can simply move one they already have, so they won't take up an extra expansion spot. There is precedent for this; teams move in the US all the time from one market to another, and they create new identities which the fans will support.

    Continue to expand to Vancouver, Montreal, NYC2, Atlanta, Miami, Portland, Tampa, Minny, Detroit, Cleveland, Vegas, Phoenix, Milwaukee, Carolina so on and so forth. Eventually put another team in LA and San Diego. There are so many ways you can do this. By the way, I think MLS is ripe for a town such as Birgmingham, AL. Put a team in the heart of the south, and maybe people will turn up!

    Oh, and this isn't exactly groundbreaking, but every team needs a rival, preferably a geographically close one. That's an added reason why it's so important. We need Derbys! I think that will do a great deal to increase fan support. Toronto, needs Montreal. If the Impact are promoted to MLS, that will instantly become the fiercest rivalry in MLS. With the whole english/french culture divide in Canada, this rivalry would be fantastic. Anyone who has ever seen a Leafs/Habs game knows this.

    KC needs St. Louis, Red Bulls need NYC2, etc.

    But to start, move Chivas to St. Louis and rebrand them St. Louis United!
     
  9. KingsCountyFC

    KingsCountyFC Member

    Nov 6, 2007
    BK - NY / Louisiana
    Club:
    FC Sankt Pauli
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    i think that it's because Chivas was a Forced Derby...
    there was no rivarly to build on, and MLS just made one happen.
    It doesn't work that way, especially if you are playing in the same
    stadium...
    Look at NYC2....most RedBull fans already hate our guts....
    perfect rivarly already brewing..hehe:D
     
  10. CACuzcatlan

    CACuzcatlan Member

    Jun 11, 2007
    San Francisco, CA
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    At the beginning it was forced, but now its a real derby/rivalry. Just look at how every time the two teams play they sellout the stadium. The problem is that Chivas USA can't draw a decent crowd if its not playing against LA or Chicago.
     
  11. Sport Billy

    Sport Billy Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 25, 2006

    Two Points:

    1. St. Louis WILL get it's OWN team very soon
    2. St. Louis WON'T have a rivalry with KC - It will be with Chicago.
     
  12. QueensNick

    QueensNick Member

    Jul 19, 2007
    New York City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Wow - you changed your tune! ha ha - its all good! Hows the Eads Brigade going?

    I think St Louis is 17

    18, if the no Canada thing is true, than 18 is down to a few.

    Atlanta, - but they say not till 2012
    Portland - things are going nicely for htem - missing a stadium
    NYC - Start the hating now but things are going well there too!


    These are my top 3 US Candidates
     
  13. PhillyMLS

    PhillyMLS Member+

    Oct 24, 2000
    SE PA
    ATL fans will hate on me but I think NYC and Portland are well ahead of them on the list. A team in the boroughs with its own stadium would be nothing short of a coup for MLS and will win out over any other expansion city. The NY/NJ rivalry will help both teams and it has two other rivals within a 2 hour drive. Right there gives MLS 8 matches a year that will most likely be very well attended. Portland is a logic choice as there is little competion from the main sports and the team already draws well. Add in that all they need to do is renovate a stadium that helps as well (as does the stadium's location). Portland gets a huge boost as well if Vancouver is the next Canadian team in. The northwest corridor rivalry will give MLS a couple very well attended games as well.

    Atlanta on the other hand just has itself to really rely on. There are no guarantees that they will draw well and there are no real local rivals to draw off of. Atlanta may surprise me and have Toronto or Seattle like support, but I don't think going by history and current market factors that it is a strong choice right now. It is ahead of many of the other choices people throw out there but I think it is probably 5th or 6th on the list of US cities.
     
  14. Raven49er

    Raven49er Member

    May 26, 2005
    Fairfax, VA
    I hope so too. St. Louis deserves its own team. I could see why you guys wouldn't want another team, tainted by it's former Chivas affiliation. And yea, you will have a rivalry with Chicago. But you could have one with KC too.
     
  15. BaltimoreSoccerFan

    Jun 18, 2008
    No rivarly would be more intense than DC vs. Baltimore. Baltimore FC will come...
     
  16. clebo99

    clebo99 Member

    May 28, 2006
    Baltimore/NY, Baltimore/Philly could be just as good as well.
     
  17. HighburyForever

    HighburyForever Red Card

    Oct 15, 2006
    Wooloomooloo, New South Wales
    Club:
    Zenit St Petersburg
    Nat'l Team:
    Russia
  18. QueensNick

    QueensNick Member

    Jul 19, 2007
    New York City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  19. napolisoccer

    napolisoccer Member

    NYCFC - Napoli
    Feb 20, 2005
    Napoli
    Club:
    SSC Napoli
    Nat'l Team:
    Italy
    I respect the Portland fans, but sincerely I am sure that as soon as Wilpon will present the soccer plan in Queens, Garber to 100 % puts the NYCFC in MLS by 2011.
     
  20. zensum

    zensum Member+

    Jan 22, 2008
    The Bronx, NYC
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    A complete misreading of Gazidis' comments by some BS readers.

    With expansion fever running rampant in Canada, Gazidis was trying to throw cold water on any imminent announcements concerning Montreal or Vancouver. The quote was that MLS is in "no rush to add another team (beyond Seattle and Philly) in Canada or elsewhere".

    He was just maintaining the party line of no further expansion in 2009 or 2010. I anticipate that the Anschutz committee is ready to explode that fiction any day now.
     
  21. Sport Billy

    Sport Billy Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 25, 2006
    Nothing by All-Star - but I expect to here something before the end of the season.

    I could see Philly, STL, and either NYC or Portland all joining in 2010.

    It would make for one hell of a 2009 draft in St. Louis.

    Party at my house
     
  22. QueensNick

    QueensNick Member

    Jul 19, 2007
    New York City
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    I agree - i think you get one by seasons end. I think that the 18th team will not be announced until like Feb - like philly was - ya know - gives the candidates more time to fight it over!
     
  23. HighburyForever

    HighburyForever Red Card

    Oct 15, 2006
    Wooloomooloo, New South Wales
    Club:
    Zenit St Petersburg
    Nat'l Team:
    Russia
    Is he scheduled to present his plans anytime soon?
     
  24. NYC_COSMOS

    NYC_COSMOS BigSoccer Supporter

    Jan 13, 2007
    Queens, NY
    Club:
    CA Vélez Sársfield
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Stay tuned!
     
  25. Durian Durian

    Durian Durian New Member

    Jul 10, 2008
    Vancouver
    Maybe Randy Lerner will move the Cleveland Browns there again, and replace them with all his Aston Villa players.
     

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