We would certainly be having a huge fall from grace if we aren't in the top 25 when the draw is done. Less group games in stage 2 than last round with only 6 match days required rather than 10. May create a bit of space for a nations league.in the back end of 2023.
Had another look at the FIFA windows and if they keep the 5 windows a year going the first round must start in the Sept 23 window with the first group stage starting in October. Using every window the second group stage finishes June 25, with stage 4 happening in the sept window, the playoff in Oct and the intercontinental playoff in November 25. There is no space for a nations league.
A good place to voice my opinion on what to do with a coach for this cycle. I think (providing the calendar doesn't undergo radical change) the current practice of appointing a coach for a world cup cycle should change. The way Asian qualification is set up means that the real end of the cycle is the Asian Cup. Our next coaching appointment should end with the 2027 Asian Cup. I would like to see the current setup remain for the 2023(24) Asian Cup, whenever it gets held. The only hiccup may be is if Arnie and the others want to return to club football and a 1 year extension isn't enough to tempt them to stay. If they decide to offer Arnie the job for the next world cup that contract should finish with the Asian Cup. Of course we can always sack a coach, we did it in 2005 part way through qualifying and in 2013 after we had qualified.
AFC Nations Ecosystem Ranking https://kassiesa.net/uefa/forum2/viewtopic.php?t=6034 I carried out some extensive research on the AFC nations and about where their programs stand right now. Here are the results: It's important to know that my grading system refers from 1 (lowest grade possible) to 10 (highest grade possible). NT form = national team form since the 2019 Asian Cup. Other than the Asian Cup, the World Cup qualifiers, the World Cup itself, the Gulf Cup, the AFF Championship and the Arab Cup 2021 are considered. Also friendlies for the lesser ranked nations who play less competitive matches. The weighting for "NT form" was 50% Youth = youth reusults in the last decade (last 8-10 years). Competitions taken into account include the U23 Asian Cup, U20 Asian Cup and the Asian Games as it's an U23 competition plus only three overage players. U17 results were not considered. A rating system was adopted to hand out points for a nation's final position in the final standings of each competition taken into account. The weighting for "youth" was 20%. Pedigree refers to a national team's results in the most important competitions since 2004 i.e. five World Cup cycles and five Asian Cup cycles are considered. Again competitions like the Gulf Cup and the AFF Champinship were taken into account. The weighting for "pedigree" was 20% Club success refers to a league's results in the two highest tier Asian club competitions i.e. AFC CL and AFC Cup since the 2016/2017 season. A rating system was developed in order to calculate a league's performance. Since the gap between first and second tier competition is big (probably bigger than in UEFA) my point system rewarded i.e. a quarterfinal run in the AFC CL more than winning the AFC Cup. The weighting for "club success" was only 10%. If two nations have the same overall grade the nation ranks first that has a better "NT form". Nation_____________________Grade 1. Japan__________________9.90 NT Form___________________10 Youth______________________9.5 Pedigree___________________10 Club success_______________10 2. South Korea____________9.30 NT Form___________________9.0 Youth______________________10 Pedigree___________________9.0 Club success_______________10 3. Australia________________8.15 NT Form___________________8.5 Youth______________________8.0 Pedigree___________________9.0 Club success_______________5.0 4. Iran____________________8.00 NT Form___________________8.5 Youth______________________6.5 Pedigree___________________8.0 Club success_______________8.5 5. Saudi Arabia____________8.00 NT Form___________________8.0 Youth______________________8.5 Pedigree___________________6.5 Club success_______________10 6. Qatar__________________7.05 NT Form___________________7.5 Youth______________________7.0 Pedigree___________________6.0 Club success_______________7.0 7. Iraq____________________6.95 NT Form___________________7.0 Youth______________________8.5 Pedigree___________________6.5 Club success_______________4.5 8. Uzbekistan_____________6.90 NT Form___________________6.5 Youth______________________9.5 Pedigree___________________6.0 Club success_______________5.5 9. UAE____________________6.40 NT Form___________________6.5 Youth______________________7.0 Pedigree___________________5.5 Club success_______________6.5 10. Jordan________________6.30 NT Form___________________7.0 Youth______________________6.5 Pedigree___________________5.5 Club success_______________4.0 11. China_________________5.95 NT Form___________________6.0 Youth______________________5.5 Pedigree___________________5.5 Club success_______________7.5 12. Bahrain_______________5.50 NT Form___________________7.0 Youth______________________2.5 Pedigree___________________5.5 Club success_______________4.0 13. Vietnam______________5.40 NT Form___________________6.0 Youth______________________7.0 Pedigree___________________4.0 Club success_______________2.0 14. Thailand______________5.35 NT Form___________________6.0 Youth______________________6.0 Pedigree___________________3.5 Club success_______________4.5 15. North Korea___________5.30 NT Form___________________5.0 Youth______________________7.0 Pedigree___________________5.5 Club success_______________3.0 16. Oman_________________4.95 NT Form___________________7.0 Youth______________________1.5 Pedigree___________________4.5 Club success_______________2.5 17. Syria__________________4.80 NT Form___________________5.5 Youth______________________5.0 Pedigree___________________4.0 Club success_______________2.5 18. Palestine______________3.65 NT Form___________________5.0 Youth______________________3.0 Pedigree___________________2.0 Club success_______________1.5 19. Lebanon______________3.60 NT Form___________________5.0 Youth______________________1.0 Pedigree___________________2.5 Club success_______________4.0 20. Malaysia______________3.60 NT Form___________________4.5 Youth______________________3.0 Pedigree___________________2.0 Club success_______________3.5 21. Tajikistan_____________3.55 NT Form___________________4.5 Youth______________________4.0 Pedigree___________________1.0 Club success_______________3.0 22. Kuwait________________3.40 NT Form___________________4.5 Youth______________________2.0 Pedigree___________________3.0 Club success_______________1.5 23. Indonesia_____________3.15 NT Form___________________3.5 Youth______________________4.0 Pedigree___________________2.0 Club success_______________2.0 24. Kyrgyzstan____________3.10 NT Form___________________4.5 Youth______________________1.5 Pedigree___________________2.0 Club success_______________1.5 25. Turkmenistan__________3.05 NT Form___________________4.0 Youth______________________2.0 Pedigree___________________2.0 Club success_______________2.5 26. India__________________3.00 NT Form___________________4.0 Youth______________________1.0 Pedigree___________________2.0 Club success_______________4.0 IMO the highest ranked 17 nations can eye a place at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Remember that with the expansion to 48 teams the AFC has 8+1 sposts for the World Cup. I think it will be an absolute dogfight for the last three four spots behind the usual suspects Japan, South Korea, Australia, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
AFC World Cup Qualifers 2026 predictions Round 1 Afghanistan over Mongolia Bangladesh over Maldives Singapore over Guam Yemen over Sri Lanka Myanmar over Macau Cambodia over Pakistan Chinese Taipei over Timor-Leste Indonesia over Brunei Hongkong over Bhutan Nepal over Laos Round 2 Group A 1. Qatar 2. Kuwait 3. India 4. Afghanistan Group B 1. Japan 2. Syria 3. North Korea 4. Myanmar Group C 1. South Korea 2. Thailand 3. China 4. Singapore Group D 1. Oman 2. Malaysia 3. Krygyzstan 4. Chinese Taipei Group E 1. Iran 2. Uzbekistan 3. Hongkong 4. Turkmenistan Group F 1. Vietnam 2. Iraq 3. Indonesia 4. Philippines Group G 1. Saudi Arabia 2. Jordan 3. Tajikistan 4. Cambodia Group H 1. Bahrain 2. UAE 3. Nepal 4. Yemen Group I 1. Australia 2. Lebanon 3. Palestine 4. Bangladesh My picks to be eliminated after round 3 Lebanon Malaysia Kuwait Syria Oman Thailand My picks to be eliminated after round 4 Vietnam Jordan My 8 Asian teams to qualify directly for the 2026 World Cup Japan Australia Iran South Korea Saudi Arabia Uzbekistan (debutants) Bahrain (debutants) UAE My round 5 match up Iraq over Qatar Iraq go on to play the intercontinental playoffs. But I don't have them coming through that. Good luck to all Asian teams!
1st home game in Melbourne against either Bangladesh or Maldives on 16 Nov. How come Melbourne always gets the big games. Subway Socceroos launch FIFA World Cup 2026™ campaign with qualifier in Melbourne | Socceroos
I'm aiming to attend as many home games this cycle as I can. I've got my tickets for the Gold Coast and Adelaide games, both stadiums I haven't been to before. I think the Japan game will be in Sydney, the Saudi game will be in Melbourne (or maybe Sydney) and not sure about Indonesia. If the Saudi game is in Sydney then I think Indonesia will be in Melbourne.
Australia's poor start to round 3 has today seen the resignation of head coach Graham Arnold. Graham Arnold resigns as Socceroos coach ahead of next World Cup qualifiers | Australia | The Guardian Not sure where we go from here. I can't think of an obvious candidate to take over, or at least one that we can afford to pay. We' haven't employed a non Australian as head coach for a while so maybe its time to explore that option again. The leading Australian candidates I can think of all have jobs at the moment.
Tony Popović set to be named Socceroos coach for 2026 World Cup tilt | Football | The Guardian Formal Announcement due in 90 minutes. I think the appointment should be until after the Asian Cup in 2027 as that's the natural end of our cycle (and the only trophy we have a realistic chance of winning)
I think if we are going to go with local coaches their contracts should be until the end of the Asian Cup. The Asian Cup is usually within 12 months of the World Cup, will consist of much the same players and we have common qualifying systems. It's also the only trophy of significance that we have a chance of winning so I think that is what we should be building up to.