The Road from Here, Reprise

Discussion in 'MLS: Commissioner - You be The Don' started by triplet1, Oct 1, 2018.

  1. mschofield

    mschofield Member+

    May 16, 2000
    Berlin
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Do the Nuggets sell out? They sure didn't when I was kid, and Larry Brown was the point guard. Course, they were called Rockets back then.
     
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  2. JasonMa

    JasonMa Member+

    Mar 20, 2000
    Arvada, CO
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The only team that sells out consistently is the Broncos. The other teams will sell out if they're good for a decent stretch.
     
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  3. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    How dare you fail to mention Denver's lacrosse teams and rugby team!! ;)
     
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  4. mschofield

    mschofield Member+

    May 16, 2000
    Berlin
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    The 30 minute suggestion above is an ideal, i think. I live dead center in Berlin, and it takes me more than 30 minutes to get to Olympic is I want to see the national team or Hertha, and Alte Forsterei is simply a mess to get to by mass transit (I bike, more than half an hour).
     
  5. mschofield

    mschofield Member+

    May 16, 2000
    Berlin
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Glendale?
    This is actually an interesting point for this discussion. I was caught off guard by the notion of Denver's rugby team both being professional and not being the Barbarians (at least not professionally). I did a google map tour of the area, and their stadium is interesting. Dead center in a neighborhood, looks to seat about 2,000 or so? It isn't big, but it's quite nice. It looks like there's a plan in place.
    Rugby of course is a very tough niche in the US, as the game looks just enough like American football to wildly confusing to novice viewers. Building a fan base has been really rough for rugby, even more so that soccer.
    But the existence of their stadium and league indicates that niche sports are seen as a some sort of investment (unless it's just people with too much money and a love for the game).
    Still, does this sort of league have a chance to grow in a digital world, or is it fated to remain what it is, a boutique experience catering to a small but devoted following?
    That was pretty much the notion when MLS was starting out. There was a dream of existing on the margins of the US sporting scene. The league accomplished that and I believe surpassed that, it's now a part of the American scene, not central but increasing part of the discussion. Yet has that dream been replaced by existing on the margins of the international soccer club scene?
     
  6. Can't you call Rugby Soccer played with your hands? They play with eleven players and the run of the game comes close to the continuous flow of a soccer match.
     
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  7. newtex

    newtex Member+

    May 25, 2005
    Houston
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Rugby Union has 15 players on the field for each team. Rugby League is 13 players per team.

    But, yes, Rugby Football is very similar to Association Football. They were the same game played with local variations up until about the 1860s.
     
  8. My bad. Was mixing field handball with rugby:(
     
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  9. mschofield

    mschofield Member+

    May 16, 2000
    Berlin
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    League is more similiar to American football. I don't know rugby but spent several months working with a fanatic who made that case.
     
  10. ceezmad

    ceezmad Member+

    Mar 4, 2010
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    BTW, I found this on twitter, probably the most trust worthy numbers that I have seen.

    This values Pachuca at 34.3 million and Leon at 82.6 million or so. (if I did my math correctly).


    https://www.forbes.com/sites/merger...soccer-fever-attracts-investors/#6bc7efdb42a2
     
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  11. triplet1

    triplet1 BigSoccer Supporter

    Jul 25, 2006
    It's just been insanely busy at work, so I apologize for my absence here. Some of the year end cord cutting numbers for ESPN are really sobering (emphasis added):

    "Recently we learned that in just three months 1.2 million American households canceled traditional pay-TV. Now Disney has released their subscriber numbers that show in the last 12 months ESPN has lost 2 million subscribers. Now you may be thinking that many of them now subscribe to ESPN through a streaming service, but that 2 million number includes streaming services.

    Disney is already putting a lot of hope into their ESPN+ streaming service that costs $5 a month and gives access to additional content not available on ESPN’s cable networks. According to Disney, ESPN+ already has 1 million hardcore sports fans helping Disney replace lost cable subscribers."

    https://www.cordcuttersnews.com/as-cord-cutting-grew-espn-lost-2-million-subscribers-this-year/

    The growth of ESPN plus is nice, but it's no where close to replacing the lost subscription revenue from the cable and satellite companies. For every 1 million in subscribers ESPN loses, that represents just over $8 million a month in lost subscription revenue. So while ESPN has picked up $5 million a month in streaming revenue from ESPN plus, it lost over $16 million a month from the two million subscribers it dropped just in 2018.

    It will be interesting to see how MLS/SUM and some of the other streaming services respond.
     
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  12. scoachd1

    scoachd1 Member+

    Jun 2, 2004
    Southern California
    Given that DAZN secures Canadian rights to Premier League I'm sure these numbers will be very interesting. Once upon a time MLS needed ESPN to get seen. As ESPN's hegemony deteriorates MLS's leverage will should start to significantly increase. Unlike the established big 4 in the US, TV revenue doesn't dwarf all the other revenue streams. So while streaming may be a disaster to some, I think it actually favors MLS. Over time ESPN will become more and more like an infomercial.
     
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  13. mschofield

    mschofield Member+

    May 16, 2000
    Berlin
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I do wonder if there are numbers on stream viewing, comparing the last couple years when the league offered it's own service to the ESPN + deal. MLS has a similar deal with Eurosport. My experience with both is hit and miss. I don't think broadcast groups really get the whole point of streaming. Eurosport only offers a couple games a week on demand, though everything is live ( I have spent way too many mornings waking at 3 or 4 for stupid west coast games).
    In any case, I assume MLS went this route in order to get more eyeballs, I wonder if that has worked?
     
  14. triplet1

    triplet1 BigSoccer Supporter

    Jul 25, 2006
    I agree that MLS doesn't really need ESPN to be seen -- although over time I think ESPN and other channels like it may help introduce the league to potential fans that streaming might miss -- but to me the bigger issue is that I think people are much too dismissive of the impact the national TV money has on payrolls. Yes the total dollars aren't as big, but still the network TV deals fund the equivalent of about $3 million of a team's salary budget. If a big chunk of that money goes away, I think it would be tough to replace those dollars. The more likely option would be to cut the league funded salary budgets, but reducing these salary budgets, say, even $2 million per team would impact quality noticeably IMO.

    It won't destroy MLS, but it could easily undo a lot of the progress made on roster quality that higher payrolls and TAM have helped fund.
     
  15. waltlantz

    waltlantz Member

    Jul 6, 2010
    I think MLS fans should be wary.

    On it's own the TV numbers for MLS do not justify a huge outlay for traditional media companies, IMHO.

    OTOH, US nat team rights in the SUM bundle gives them some leverage I guess.

    Maybe DAZN will throw their hat in the ring? I'd argue they need US based content.
     
  16. scoachd1

    scoachd1 Member+

    Jun 2, 2004
    Southern California
    I agree this money is not only important now, but is important to the growth of the league. Where we almost completely disagree is how the end of ESPN's hegemony will impact MLS. My point of view is ESPN that it has hurt MLS more than helped. So what is bad for ESPN, might actually help MLS.

    ESPN’s ecosystem was built on college basketball and football which they used along with sports center to move into NFL, NBA, MLB, and to a much lesser extent the NHL. Their 30 for 30 film “Requiem for the Big East” provides a great insight on how the symbiotic relationship between the two fledgling entities helped grow both into media powerhouses.
    However, by the time MLS came on the scene, EPSN was a two ton gorilla and was completely integrated with dominant sports partners much bigger than the Big East (NCAA, NFL, NBA, and MLB). As such it not only directed all of its editorial and promotional efforts towards its partners, but also arguably went out of its way marginalize soccer in general and MLS in particular.

    One of the reasons why SUM was so critical to the success of MLS is that is gave soccer the critical mass needed to negotiate some attention. While its size was too small for ESPN to care all that much, SUM made MLS a player less dominant sports providers like NBC and Fox which in turn prevented ESPN from continuing to marginalize it.

    Furthermore the TV model is based on two main components advertising slots and carriage rights. Your primarily focus has been on the latter. However the lack of the former has always been a big negative for soccer as compared to other sports. I personally can’t watch live football, basketball, baseball or hockey anymore as it seems like watching non-stop advertisements that are interrupted by some sports action. However with digital technology, people increasing bypass this type of advertising. The end result is opportunities for advertising for traditional sports begins to mirror the in game and highlights of soccer.

    DAZN is not build on the Cable TV model. Whatever it is paying for streaming is based on the assumption that those rights will be profitable. So there is still clearly a lot of money available to pay MLS players’ salaries. On the other hand the same can’t be said for other sports which is why the rapidly changing cable environment should be frightful ESPN, NCAA, NFL, NBA and MLB.

    John Skipper: ‘Big leagues will want DAZN at the table’

    In a far reaching interview, a first since Skipper joined what was until recently known as Perform Group, the former ESPN president also insisted that despite the ratings issues affecting sports that the price of rights is not going to drop.
    “So we will look to take advantage of those markets to get in now and try to create a dominant over-the-top position. Do I think sports rights in the United States will go down? No. Anytime in the near future, I do not.

    “It’s really only barely about viewership, right? It’s really about what you can build or what you can generate in revenue based upon that viewership. I think it’s arguable. I don’t think sports viewing as a whole is actually down. What’s down are the Nielsen ratings on the big events on broadcast networks and on cable television. Lots of people are choosing to watch different ways, consuming sports in different ways, betting, playing fantasy football.”
     
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  17. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    http://www.analiticasports.com/entr...on-practica-menos-deporte-que-las-anteriores/

    This an amazing Spanish language interview of Havas Sports and ex-Nike marketing expert Diego Soraires. He cites multiple studies on declining activity and the rise of e-sports. For clubs, he brings up an important point. Facing the rise of e-sports, the number one asset that clubs, leagues and even sports themselves will have in the long run is their brand. Citing PSG he notes how a club in a lesser competition like Ligue 1 faces many challenges. Their only recourse is to win the CL. MLS must feel the need to win CCL and eventually the CWC. The question is if this is even a realistic.
     
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  18. mschofield

    mschofield Member+

    May 16, 2000
    Berlin
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Does winning the CCL at this point actually mean anything to the attractiveness of MLS clubs to e-players? The e-sport revolution pushes us closer and closer to a super league, at least in the minds of those playing the game. When you watch the e-games, the players are all competing with essentially the same lineups.
     
  19. HailtotheKing

    HailtotheKing Member+

    San Antonio FC
    United States
    Dec 1, 2008
    TEXAS
    Club:
    San Antonio Scorpions FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, we finally cut the traditional cord.

    We're on PSVue/Hulu/Netflix and a smorgasboard of free tv apps/streams (like Pluto) now. ALL Of that combined is HALF of what the bill was before and SO FAR I've only not been able to find 2 sporting events I wanted to watch (in two months so far). If that ratio continues at 1 event per month .... I'll never go back
     
  20. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    I cut the cord years ago. Only word of advise I give is that Hulu/Netflix/Amazon Prime is something I cycle back and forth from. I'll spend some months on one and then when it seems stale I switch to the next. It's very easy to just pay a month and leave.
     
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  21. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    No, the CCL is the pathway to the CWC. There MLS should try to do what LMX couldn't and make it to the final. Even better, make it to the final consistently.
     
  22. mschofield

    mschofield Member+

    May 16, 2000
    Berlin
    Club:
    Union Berlin
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Even winning the CWC doesn't do that much, at least not at this point. No one here pays attention. It's a big step down not only from CL but from league here. It gets less attention than national cups.
    If an MLS team could win one, or a couple, it might shake things up enough to make it seem relevant, but making a final or 6 wouldn't matter much if Real kept winning the thing.
     
  23. flange

    flange Member

    Jul 15, 2014
    Portland, OR
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Zero chance it becomes relevant until a non-UEFA team wins it. CCL has the same problem with being dominated by LMX. I'm not saying that's all it will take, but it's a prerequisite for sure.
     
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  24. El Naranja

    El Naranja Member+

    Sep 5, 2006
    Alief
    Club:
    Houston Dynamo
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Non-European teams do win it.
     

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