Three days until training starts?.....Ok, however depressing the thought, let's assume for now that what we now have is at best all we'll have ["at best" because who knows what an injury or two could do to this squad]......so, throwing in "9 of 11", last year's surviving reserves, and the new draftees and trialists, is there any basis for hope that this year the Revs will be a contender? Right now, in this dis-gruntled state, for me it's NOPE, NOT A CHANCE. We watch them go down in a blaze of inglory. Not enough first team talent, not enough depth, an aging half-corp of "critical" players [Ralston, Reis, Heaps], a no-longer young other half [Twellman, Albright, Joseph], 2/3 of which are apparently quite p*ssed off at their situation with this team. There is one classy defender, but then he is entering his last year with us, and for the rest an unproven handful of somewhat younger players [e.g Cristman, Lawrentowicz], one CAB, and a slew of walking "WTH is he?". I expect the top half of MLS to be better, or at least not worse, than last year. Whereas we have an obvious decline in quality from last year [and a painfully obvious one from 2005]. At this point, I predict a struggle to contend for the playoffs [and we won't make it]. And as for Superliga........ I also predict this is Nicol's last year with the Revs. Even a brave Scotsman can only take so much loneliness in the struggle. Can someone tell me how I'm wrong, and that there is solid ground for hope? Anyone?
Let me refer you to the other 23 similar threads this off season, the 47 last off season, the 29 the off season before expressing fears similar to your and discussing how the Revs would not make the playoffs this year. However, before you submit your grand opera for publication you might just want to wait till the Revs are ready to open the season before you decide that they will have five empty regular roster slots and that they are DOOMED.
Soccer Doc advised: "However, before you submit your grand opera for publication you might just want to wait till the Revs are ready to open the season before you decide that they will have five empty regular roster slots and that they are DOOMED. " Ok, Gott that
Strangely the past few years, you've also said the same thing, and the team's never made improvements.
I know there are strong differences of opinion on the subject but there are some that would argue that the Rev team has improved it's on field product every year for the past 5-6 years. You of course are well within your right to be wrong in your opinion.
And it's within your right to be wrong about thinking the Revs have improved it's on field product every year for the past 5-6 years.
To know you have the capacity to be wrong is human; to know and accept that is to be on the path to Wisdom and Truth.
With the roster in such disarray and the fact that we are going back into pre-season training undermanned... again, can only bring out the most negative of comments. I do strongly believe that this team is not as good as last years. I hope to be proven wrong on March 29th. with that said. I do believe that we will have a great defense this year. Parky is a member of the New England Revolution for 2008, so please stop trying to fill list of negative comments with the "fact" that he wont be here next year. We have acquired Albright, Heaps is still fairly good (although not the best). We do still have Joey, Big Red and Shalrie. And dont forget about Reis. We will see the ball in our next very few times this year... as with the ball in the other net! Out attack has been butchered this off season. Mr. Jack Ripper couldn't have done a better job on our offense. We piss off our #1 striker with contract ordeals. We then ship away his closest friend, oh and he was the #2 striker! We loose our attacking midfielder, continue our blind hope that Khano will someday flip his 90:10 suck to amazing ratio, and ask for yet another year from the MLS Vet who should be getting his social security money anytime now. We hope Cristman will step up, and we put all of our chips into the Superdaft (AGAIN). The formula for success is very straight forward for the Revs every year. success = (Core Members^2 * Rookies) * 0.5; Core Member like Rally, TnT, and even Nicol have kept this team a contender. But with more members dropping out that number falls more and more drastically (^2). The more the core members number falls the more the rookies must make up for it. I don't see the rookies being able to support us as much this year. we must multiply by 0.5 to take into account the Revs and MLS FO. No matter how good the players are, the Revs FO will find a to hurt team moral, or MLS FO will find a way to suspend Joseph. My prediction: We make it into the payoffs. 3rd or 4th seed. Loose in first round. Points... 38? (not final prediction) RRRREV IT UP
You must have a very high opinion of Chris Albright, because our defense was thoroughly mediocre last year. We got bailed out by the fact that we scored the 2nd-most goals in the league. 38 points would have missed the playoffs last year. I'm with you on the seeding, though. As it stands right now, I'd say we're anywhere between the 3rd and 5th best team in the league.
So even though the facts show that our points per game were lower this year than last year, which was lower than 2005 ... we've gotten better? The 2007 team was extremely fortunate in the injury department, yet still did worse points per game than 2005. That's somehow better? As a matter of fact, please tell me how the 2007 team was better than 2005, since the stats, and I think many of us who was both seasons, quite disagree with you?
As long as the Revs keep playing wingman to MLS champions, Soccer Doc doesn't feel like it is on him to substantiate his assertion (note he does not usually even suggest he actually believes it is true) that the Revs were better in 2007. I for one know that the 2005 version of the Revs were terrifying (especially late in the season) and that they have not been as scary since then. They don't play as efficiently (even Reis and Parkhurst had their shaky moments last season) and they hardly ever bossed games like the did the second half of 2005 and the first half of 2006. Every objective statistic bears it out. Goal differential, the variety of scoring, the defensive stalwartness, the record in close games, Supporter's Shield standings, etc. And the intangible stuff bears it out too. Since the second half of 2006 - the team has not looked nearly as intimidating on the field (I don't mean in a physical sense - I mean in terms of dominating the tempo and run-of-play). In 2007, the Revs got played off the field in key games (regular season against DC). That never happened in the time period of their domination. The Revs were victimized by having a terrible game in MLS Cup 2005. If they had played average, they would have crushed the Galaxy. But something was off. The last teams have overachieved to get to the championship game and the 2006 team almost pulled if off. But Houston has been the better team the last few seasons. They have had a better defense and they have multiple players who can conjure goals out of nowhere (in addition to having several conventional reliable scorers).
The team makes improvements every year. Just not the kind you want, I guess. And the same dire predictions never seem to come true either. No shock I'm sure, but I agree with Doc. The competition has improved each year also, so whether we've improved in relation to the competition is extremely subjective. The key thing, I think, is that we've improved our chances of winning the championship game each of the last several seasons - although at a frustratingly, marginal level. I'd guess that they haven't even decided how they will use Albright this year, but even if they only replaced our weakest back line defender (Heaps) with Albright, considered one of the best right backs in the league by many people, you have the potential for a HUGE improvement in our defense. The two things that always get *underestimated* IMO, are 1) the improvement season-by-season of young players (people tend to think that the Cristman, Smith, Igwe, JL, Thompson, etc., etc. will be pretty much the players they were the previous season). While that is quite often true of veteran players, the younger guys have tremendous upside. And, 2) that openings in the lineup are huge opportunities for those young players to find a spot and become real MLS players. The vast majority of the quality Revs starters rose to that level just that way - while other promising young players have stagnated away when there were no opportunities to get in the lineup. If we go into preseason with openings, players will emerge and Nicol and Mariner will turn them into quality players. This isn't just *hope*, it's a well-worn trail (Dorman, Larentowicz, Thompson, Noonan, Parkhurst, Dempsey, Reis, ...).
This is the first year I've ever made any dire predictions, and those are subject to if we add any veterans from outside MLS. But ... let me get this straight. We've made improvements from 2005 to 2006 to 2007 ... and the other teams have as well. Yet, the team in 2005 finished first in the East. And yet, one of the teams (DC) has passed us by in both 2006 and 2007 to win the Shield. So no ... we haven't improved in relation to our competition. We finished second in 2005 in MLS during the season. We finished fourth this year. But hey, you keep using your "subjective" views, and I'll keep using facts.
That is not an improvement then ... that is keeping level How do you figure? More depth? Better defense? The biggest factor in maintaining solid results last season was probably healthier star players. The defense was less efficient and the team had much less depth, as demonstrated by the number of players with extensive minutes. Albright is a great player (I wish we had him back as a more-skilled version of Josh Gros), but it is not his core defensive ability that makes him one. He lacks exactly the tenacity and gamesmenship qualities that make Heaps so much more effective than his raw ability suggests. Albright plays small on the defensive end (the Gals have been notoriously soft on corners/set pieces for seasons with him as one of their primary markers) and he is not good at the grabbing, delaying, kind of stuff. Albright is great at rapidly switching from defensive postures to counterattacks (not something ya'll have the forwards to take advantage of - you need a pacier guy up front), moving the ball rapidly up the line (rather than dithering with it) and serving early crosses. He is decent as a finisher on corners and set pieces (not a weakness of the Revs). He is good at transition defense, but not so much in his own defensive-third. I still rate him a net gain, but much more so if the team plays 4 at the back. He would probably be an upgrade (slight) over Thompson as a wide midfielder (assuming Ralston in the middle). But his greatest value is as an attacking fullback. The only players who made substantial contributions as second-year players last season were Lauro and (possibly) Smith - and they were third year players, right? The rookies did very little. Christman got off to a good start, but hardly improved over time. I thought Thompson didn't deserve the minutes he got. Dorman, Noonan, Dempsey and Parkhurst contributed tons more in their initial seasons than Cristman, Igwe, Smith or Thompson. They have more core talent. I agree that the team can count on a measure of improvement year to year. But I think your weights development too heavily for the success of players like Noonan, Dorman, Dempsey, Parkhurst, etc. The fact is that those players had more raw talent than Cristman, Thompson, Smith, etc. Don't forget that a bunch of the 'half-full' guys were talking about how much Willie Sims was going to set the world on fire last year. Cristman might get a bit better - but he is more in the Chad Barrett mode (talent wise) than a Chris Rolfe or Kenny Cooper. The other young Revs were all getting Nats call-ups (at least to camp) after strong rookie seasons ... (Dorman would have if he had been eligible). Cristman, Smith and Thompson are not likely candidates to even factor at the full national team level. Maybe Lauro ... but even he is not considered to be in the top half of defensive midfielders in the league (like other youngsters - Brian Carroll, Rico Clark, Kyle Beckerman, Michael Bradley, etc) - were at his stage of development.
Which makes us the only team in MLS that relies on players "popping up." Yes, it's worked (to a degree) in the past but that's no indication of future success nor a reason to eschew other means of securing players. Relying on the draft has so far gotten us to repeated second place finishes. Why not, oh I don't know, try a new tack and (as well as draft) sign players from outside the league. It's not like we couldn't fit the First Church Of Christ, Scientist's Mass. Ave temple under our cap.
The same went for Oka, who is now gone as well. Thank you for spelling Cristman's name right, but I can't see Smith not factoring in for his national team.
Monty has been balanced each year. He suggested last year that the Revs would be a playoff team, but were in danger of slipping. That is not inaccurate. They played decently, but their defense slipped. Healthy campaigns from Noonan and Ralston and a rebound year (of sorts) for Twellman made a big difference. This year there are a lot more parts to replace. I agree that the team is much more likely to finish 3rd or 4th in the conference (behind DC, Chicago and either KC or the OsorioBulls). In fact, I think it is even odds that the Revs are 3rd (40%) or 4th (40%) and only 20% they are 1st or 2nd. Barring major additional improvements to the roster, they are much less flexible in the attack (leading career scorers are Twell and Ralston) and they have not improved their core defense. Depth is even more of a concern than last season. The only real wild card on the team now is the quality of the Gambian players. If they are impact players this year - that is significant. Perhaps Igwe will be an impact player as well, but I don't know much about him. Cristman, Thompson and Smith are likely to make only incremental gains - not logorithmic or exponential ones (the way Dorman did his second season). They just don't show the raw ability for that kind of growth.
I realize that Khano Smith is a key player for the Bermuda national team. But let's be honest, he wouldn't make the D team on the USMNT. Comparison of National Teams is hardly apples-to-apples. I don't discount Dorman's quality because he is not factoring on England's NT and I don't put much extra stock in Khano Smith's performances against Bahamas, Dominican Republic and the other lesser lights amongst CONCACAF minnows. He isn't Shaun Goater after all.
Of course he wouldn't. But that isn't what you said originally, you including him on a list with two Americans and said he wouldn't factor in at the full national team level, you didn't say who's national team. If you'd said the above in the original post, I wouldn't have said anything.
Sorry - I thought accounting for Dorman was enough. I didn't think anyone would seriously consider Smith as a player remotely of the quality-level of the other guys in the list. I think he is very much in the caliber of Wells Thompson (who might have higher upside) or Cristman (who I don't think does). I cannot remember how old Smith is, or how long he has been playing. I know he is pretty young and has gobs of natural athleticism, but I don't get the notion he has the mentality or soccer brain to turn into a MLS star-level player.
BTW, we've constantly brought up the idea of losing Twellman or Parky to USMNT qualifiers this year, Smith's another one that will be gone at least for a bit this year.