The Refried Presidency: Trump Hateful Machine/Fossil Fuel Boogaloo or Whatever Continuation

Pittsburgh Ref · May 13, 2025

Potowmack said: ↑

There's a lot of manufacturing in the US, but it's mostly of the type of hi-tech, high value-added products (passenger jets, gas turbines, weapons systems, agricultural equipment) that the average American isn't going to buy in Wal-Mart.

There are lots of open jobs in American manufacturing, but they're no longer low-skill jobs, like in the past.
Click to expand...

The retail sector of the American manufacturing base has shrunk in response to the American consumertariate's priority on abundant, cheap stuff. Even if a wand could be waved to ramp up capacity, the economic tension between pay and prices, for American-made goods, would torpedo the whole thing.

We have what we asked for, and it's a one-way door.

soccernutter · May 13, 2025

Germerica said: ↑

For those with a genuine interest in learning more and not just trying to define every issue with a left vs right "who's the winner" calculus, I highly recommend folks check out today's episode of The Daily.

The NYT Beijing bureau chief discusses the real pressures facing China, their vulnerabilities, and why they came to the negotiating table.
Click to expand...

So, getting to this...I'm not sure what your overall thesis is. I asked you some questions for clarification, but you did not answer. So, I'm confused on how to answer you. With that said, I'm going to use Trump as the basis.

Listening to the pod, it only addresses the economic situation in China. What is clear, and what is known, is that China is NOT a consumer and services economy. That is because there is a very low social safety net provided by the government, and that means that most Chinese workers have to save for themselves (I think the pod said it was 20% of individual income). In addition, there are restrictions on investing in foreign stock markets while investing in Chinese markets is risky (due the large number of sketchy companies.

Additionally, wages are artificially low. A major part of that is because the Chinese government suppresses dissent of all kinds as much as possible, on-line and in person (just think of the way they have been handling Hong Kong). This means that no sustained push for higher wages can take place across the country.

Thus, when Trump says that China is ripping us off, that is not really accurate. The Chinese people can't really afford to purchase stuff made in the US because they both don't have the income nor do they have the available cash (and thus, credit) to purchase our products.

Additionally, China has a messed up economy. Yeah, for decades they encouraged the purchase of homes/apartments. That was great until the pandemic and subsequent collapse of these massive contractors (like Evergrande), which caused property values to plummet. It was worse than the property crash we had in 2007/2008. But they shifted several years ago to focus on manufacturing. And as has been mentioned here in a few places, they are the leader in robotics, and that translates into improvements in manufacturing, which the Chinese government is putting massive amounts of money into. They are not going to give that up easily.

I don't think they was mentioned on the pod, but they have a large number of college graduates applying for and not getting jobs. So, in addition to an unsustainable aging population which is not being replaced, they also have an over educated population. This reminds me of the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s (comparisons are not exact, being more general). Again, this also presents a situation in which the people of China are not able to purchase stuff from the US (or more advanced economies).

Honestly, that pod made China sound like they are in a worse situation than I thought they were, but also in a situation in which they can last longer with the problems they have than I expected.

Now, you did mention somewhere about diversifying manufacturing. I agree. But the problem is that China has had two or three decades of being a low cost manufacturing powerhouse and have thusly been able to develop very sophisticated supply chains. These are things not easily changes, and will take several years to replace. Not that it shouldn't be done, but that it is not as easy at Trump is making it sound.

How do we address this in the US? Despite what Nutlick said, we are not going to be putting in screws with our hands. Hell, we can't even fill the existing manufacturing jobs we do have. I just saw something on the this morning or yesterday that identified both manufacturing jobs with and without college degrees that are substantially unfilled. And that is not even talking about all the new manufacturing that was already being built because the CHiPs Act, the Infrastructure Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. What ever you think about those, they were intended to and are being used for building of new manufacturing. (Read here for more.)

So, basically all this bluster by Trump is bluster. Yeah, it would be nice to bring back some manufacturing to the US, and it is already being done. But at the same time, we don't have the supply chains necessary to support a sophisticated manufacturing industry, which is getting lost in the noise.

So, these tariffs? They are doing nothing other than raising prices and, if in place at the level Trump has proposed (whether that is 145% or 80%), they are likely to lead to a recession in the US, if not world wide.

Germerica · May 13, 2025

soccernutter said: ↑

So, getting to this...I'm not sure what your overall thesis is. I asked you some questions for clarification, but you did not answer. So, I'm confused on how to answer you. With that said, I'm going to use Trump as the basis.

Listening to the pod, it only addresses the economic situation in China. What is clear, and what is known, is that China is NOT a consumer and services economy. That is because there is a very low social safety net provided by the government, and that means that most Chinese workers have to save for themselves (I think the pod said it was 20% of individual income). In addition, there are restrictions on investing in foreign stock markets while investing in Chinese markets is risky (due the large number of sketchy companies.

Additionally, wages are artificially low. A major part of that is because the Chinese government suppresses dissent of all kinds as much as possible, on-line and in person (just think of the way they have been handling Hong Kong). This means that no sustained push for higher wages can take place across the country.

Thus, when Trump says that China is ripping us off, that is not really accurate. The Chinese people can't really afford to purchase stuff made in the US because they both don't have the income nor do they have the available cash (and thus, credit) to purchase our products.

Additionally, China has a messed up economy. Yeah, for decades they encouraged the purchase of homes/apartments. That was great until the pandemic and subsequent collapse of these massive contractors (like Evergrande), which caused property values to plummet. It was worse than the property crash we had in 2007/2008. But they shifted several years ago to focus on manufacturing. And as has been mentioned here in a few places, they are the leader in robotics, and that translates into improvements in manufacturing, which the Chinese government is putting massive amounts of money into. They are not going to give that up easily.

I don't think they was mentioned on the pod, but they have a large number of college graduates applying for and not getting jobs. So, in addition to an unsustainable aging population which is not being replaced, they also have an over educated population. This reminds me of the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s (comparisons are not exact, being more general). Again, this also presents a situation in which the people of China are not able to purchase stuff from the US (or more advanced economies).

Honestly, that pod made China sound like they are in a worse situation than I thought they were, but also in a situation in which they can last longer with the problems they have than I expected.

Now, you did mention somewhere about diversifying manufacturing. I agree. But the problem is that China has had two or three decades of being a low cost manufacturing powerhouse and have thusly been able to develop very sophisticated supply chains. These are things not easily changes, and will take several years to replace. Not that it shouldn't be done, but that it is not as easy at Trump is making it sound.

How do we address this in the US? Despite what Nutlick said, we are not going to be putting in screws with our hands. Hell, we can't even fill the existing manufacturing jobs we do have. I just saw something on the this morning or yesterday that identified both manufacturing jobs with and without college degrees that are substantially unfilled. And that is not even talking about all the new manufacturing that was already being built because the CHiPs Act, the Infrastructure Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act. What ever you think about those, they were intended to and are being used for building of new manufacturing. (Read here for more.)

So, basically all this bluster by Trump is bluster. Yeah, it would be nice to bring back some manufacturing to the US, and it is already being done. But at the same time, we don't have the supply chains necessary to support a sophisticated manufacturing industry, which is getting lost in the noise.

So, these tariffs? They are doing nothing other than raising prices and, if in place at the level Trump has proposed (whether that is 145% or 80%), they are likely to lead to a recession in the US, if not world wide.
Click to expand...

Glad you actually took the time to listen. It was very interesting.

I can't read his mind, but based on what he has said publicly, Trump sees tariffs (not at practical embargo levels obviously) as a way to generate revenue and benefit US manufacturing/farming, as well as incentivizing import diversification and investment in US manufacturing (those are long term goals).

Notice how he touts on social media every fill in the blank billion dollar figure manufacturing investment. It's a strategy certainly, and it remains to be seen whether in the near term American consumption actually decreases enough to cause a recession.

Potowmack · May 13, 2025

Pittsburgh Ref said: ↑

The retail sector of the American manufacturing base has shrunk in response to the American consumertariate's priority on abundant, cheap stuff. Even if a wand could be waved to ramp up capacity, the economic tension between pay and prices, for American-made goods, would torpedo the whole thing.

We have what we asked for, and it's a one-way door.
Click to expand...

Right. My dad's been in manufacturing his whole life, setting up production lines for transportation industry factories. He keeps trying to retire, but his employer keeps offering him more money to stay. There are plenty of manufacturing jobs looking for workers.

The type of old-school job where you install one component for your entire working life and then retire is long gone. But, if you've got the training to repair robots or install complex production equipment, you could have a couple of job offers lined up in a day.

Anyway, who wants a job installing screws in iPhones? If we want more manufacturing jobs in the US, we should be encouraging things like solar panel production and expanding 3D printer production.

chaski · May 13, 2025

Toilet paper shortage could be coming to US thanks to Trump tariffs
https://nypost.com/2025/05/09/busin...ould-be-coming-to-us-thanks-to-trump-tariffs/

Shit's getting real!

Cris 09 · May 13, 2025

chaski said: ↑

Toilet paper shortage could be coming to US thanks to Trump tariffs
https://nypost.com/2025/05/09/busin...ould-be-coming-to-us-thanks-to-trump-tariffs/

Shit's getting real!
Click to expand...

I thought the NY Post was a Pro Trump rag???

Dr. Wankler · May 13, 2025

Cris 09 said: ↑

I thought the NY Post was a Pro Trump rag???
Click to expand...

It's trying to position its dead tree edition as a suitable alternative to traditional TP.

soccernutter · May 13, 2025

Germerica said: ↑

Glad you actually took the time to listen. It was very interesting.
Click to expand...

I think you found it more interesting than I did. Most of those things I already knew catching various things over the years.

I can't read his mind, but based on what he has said publicly, Trump sees tariffs (not at practical embargo levels obviously) as a way to generate revenue and benefit US manufacturing/farming, as well as incentivizing import diversification and investment in US manufacturing (those are long term goals).
Click to expand...

But he doesn't seem to understand that if he disincentivizes manufacturing in China and that manufacturing will move elsewhere, then the income generated from tariffs from China will drop. I'm assuming you understand this as well. Further, he is doing very little to incentivize manufacturing here in the US. Most of what he is doing is disincentivizing manufacturing in China. Most of what is being done to grow manufacturing, is supported by the Biden bills mentioned. They way Trump is doing it doesn't really support stability.

Notice how he touts on social media every fill in the blank billion dollar figure manufacturing investment. It's a strategy certainly, and it remains to be seen whether in the near term American consumption actually decreases enough to cause a recession.
Click to expand...

The recession will be caused in three ways:
1 - Lack of imported goods because...
2 - High prices that consumers are unwilling to pay.
3 - Increase in unemployment.

Trump doesn't seem to understand how economics works, and Congress (as they should) is not using their Constitutional power as is given. Mind, this capitulation to the Executive goes back to the Bush I just post 9/11, but it's getting worse.

Germerica · May 13, 2025

soccernutter said: ↑

Most of those things I already knew catching various things over the years.
Click to expand...

Good to know.

Chesco United · May 13, 2025

Trump can't even find his podium. A sheik had to help him find it.

spejic · May 13, 2025

Dr. Wankler said: ↑

It's trying to position its dead tree edition as a suitable alternative to traditional TP.
Click to expand...

Newspaper - spejic tested, spejic approved!

Knave · May 13, 2025

Remember that time Bill Clinton got a $200 haircut?

The GOP was more concerned about that than they are about a plane costing $400 million.

InTheSun · May 13, 2025

Knave said: ↑

Remember that time Bill Clinton got a $200 haircut?

The GOP was more concerned about that than they are about a plane costing $400 million.
Click to expand...

I am hearing that some are equating this gift to the gift of the Statue of Liberty.
Except no one got to take the statue home after they left office. And it took congress' approval to accept the statue.

Cascarino's Pizzeria · May 13, 2025

Let them eat tarmac

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy keeps going on TV and insisting it’s safe to fly in and out of Newark Liberty Airport in New Jersey, despite a string of extremely frightening outages and workforce shortages recently. But Duffy has now admitted he changed a flight booked for his wife on Monday so that she wouldn’t have to travel through Newark.

Duffy made the startling admission to David Webb, a conservative radio host, during his SiriusXM show on Monday. And it’s a shocking thing to hear from the guy who’s supposed to make sure American air travel is safe.

“My wife was flying out of Newark tomorrow. I switched her flight to LaGuardia,” Duffy told the host of The David Webb Show as they discussed the recent problems at the airport.

https://gizmodo.com/transportation-...fes-flight-to-avoid-newark-airport-2000601796

Auriaprottu · May 13, 2025

If we start to get the plane crashes we deserve, sad thing is they happen in Newark and nobody cares because Newark.

roby · May 13, 2025

spejic said: ↑

Newspaper - spejic tested, spejic approved!
Click to expand...

Have you tried leaves?

Ps...Donny's idea about raking the forests may end up being the best idea he's had.

roadkit · May 13, 2025

Knave said: ↑

Remember that time Bill Clinton got a $200 haircut?

The GOP was more concerned about that than they are about a plane costing $400 million.
Click to expand...

The thing about this plane is it is the plane Trump thinks he deserves. He doesn't think he should have to settle for a plane that -- while extremely fancy for a government employee and designed for the position that person holds: leader of the free world, commander in chief with his/her finger on the nuclear button -- to Trump it's just a dump of a plane.

In his mind the Qatari plane is more to what he deserves: a gold plated abomination fitting for someone who was born into fantastic wealth, who's riches are their birthright, not because they busted their ass and earned them. He probably secretly wishes he had been born a Saudi or Qatari royal.

Cascarino's Pizzeria · May 13, 2025

Auriaprottu said: ↑

If we start to get the plane crashes we deserve, sad thing is they happen in Newark and nobody cares because Newark.
Click to expand...

Normally, most NJ Whitelandians would agree. But since they're flying to the Caribbean and Costa Rica and Mt Everest, they should have a more vested interest one would think

Kryptonite · May 13, 2025

roadkit said: ↑

The thing about this plane is it is the plane Trump thinks he deserves. He doesn't think he should have to settle for a plane that -- while extremely fancy for a government employee and designed for the position that person holds: leader of the free world, commander in chief with his/her finger on the nuclear button -- to Trump it's just a dump of a plane.

In his mind the Qatari plane is more to what he deserves: a gold plated abomination fitting for someone who was born into fantastic wealth, who's riches are their birthright, not because they busted their ass and earned them. He probably secretly wishes he had been born a Saudi or Qatari royal.
Click to expand...

Somewhere, Anthony "Trust Fund" Precourt is jealous.

rslfanboy · May 13, 2025

Cascarino's Pizzeria said: ↑

Let them eat tarmac

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy keeps going on TV and insisting it’s safe to fly in and out of Newark Liberty Airport in New Jersey, despite a string of extremely frightening outages and workforce shortages recently. But Duffy has now admitted he changed a flight booked for his wife on Monday so that she wouldn’t have to travel through Newark.

Duffy made the startling admission to David Webb, a conservative radio host, during his SiriusXM show on Monday. And it’s a shocking thing to hear from the guy who’s supposed to make sure American air travel is safe.

“My wife was flying out of Newark tomorrow. I switched her flight to LaGuardia,” Duffy told the host of The David Webb Show as they discussed the recent problems at the airport.

https://gizmodo.com/transportation-...fes-flight-to-avoid-newark-airport-2000601796
Click to expand...

Did he change the flight due to safety worries or the likelihood of delays?

Cascarino's Pizzeria · May 13, 2025

rslfanboy said: ↑

Did he change the flight due to safety worries or the likelihood of delays?
Click to expand...

Probably the former but maybe both. Typically the govt downplays just how F'd up the situation is.

Cascarino's Pizzeria · May 13, 2025

Robert Morris, former Texas megachurch pastor and Trump adviser, indicted for child sex crimes

Morris is a former spiritual adviser to President Donald Trump, and Gateway — one of the nation’s largest megachurches — has been particularly active in Dallas-area GOP politics.

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/03/12/robert-morris-texas-megachurch-indicted-sexual-abuse/

Kryptonite · May 13, 2025

Cascarino's Pizzeria said: ↑

Robert Morris, former Texas megachurch pastor and Trump adviser, indicted for child sex crimes

Morris is a former spiritual adviser to President Donald Trump, and Gateway — one of the nation’s largest megachurches — has been particularly active in Dallas-area GOP politics.

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/03/12/robert-morris-texas-megachurch-indicted-sexual-abuse/
Click to expand...

Oh look it's one of those damn trans drag queens again.

/s

Pønch · May 13, 2025

Wait, but the DEI poster told me the democrats are the pedos

Kryptonite · May 13, 2025

Remember when soccer fans bitched about ESPN guys not correctly pronouncing the names of European or South American soccer players?

You'd think these news anchors would learn how to pronounce Qatar. (IIRC, it's more like "cat" or "gat" and less like "cut".)