I'm still feeling good about our chances of finishing in the top 5. Villa has already dropped points, and Chelsea will have midweek matches right up until we play them on May 11, at home. Obviously, that match is huge. The remaining fixtures are: Sat Apr 26 Ipswich (H) Sun May 4 Brighton (A) Sun May 11 Chelsea (H) Sun May 18 Arsenal (A) Sun May 25 Everton (H) Tough competition, so we'll probably need others to drop some points, but they do play each other. The Chelsea match + 2 others should do it. Champions League is so important to our spending and player recruitment. This is a fantastic boost after not doing any business in the transfer market recently. Howay the lads!
There have been a couple results before this Sunday's match that affect the race. Man City and Villa got 1-0 wins, but Forest lost, which mathematically means 3 wins will be enough earn Champion's League, because Forest play Chelsea on the final matchday. Each match will get bigger as we go along. Brighton has given us trouble lately, especially at their park. If we get past them, the Chelsea match could clinch it for us. With two wins, the Arsenal match could put us above them in second place. Of course, the last match, could be what we need to make our dreams come true, or it could be meaningless. Let's hope for the latter. The other match with consequences tomorrow is Chelsea - Liverpool. The champions have nothing to play for, but with no other competitions going on for them, they might as well ruin Chelsea's day. Hopefully.
Only 1point against Brighton, and lucky to have it. They only had a couple of chances, but they scored from one and should have scored from the other. Meanwhile, we never got the ball to Isak, and never looked like scoring. Comically, our third awarded penalty held up, and that's all. 1-1. The last game of the day hurts us. Liverpool played their bench and rolled over for Chelsea. The extra Liverpool conceded goals ties us on goal differential, too. So, the Chelsea match is now a must-win.
Beautiful day at SJP! The goal at 2 minutes, then the red at 30 minutes. Honestly, it was a bit confounding that they could hold the ball so well against us with 10 men. In fairness, we only conceded a couple of decent opportunities. Pope only had to make one good save. The numbers are so good for Champions League qualification. Europa League is already in the bag. 3 points will finish the job. As unlikely as it sounds, an away win against Arsenal would make a second place finish likely. I don't think we've adapted to Joelinton being out, but I wouldn't count them out. Next week, Chelsea and Villa play on Friday, so we could have good news before Sunday, but I expect it will be up to us. One thought on the red card. I was surprised it was given for an elbow, especially as it has already been penalized, but it looked so intentional. No complaints, obviously. Thanks!
A loss away at the Emirates is not entirely unexpected, although if our first half chances had been converted a win would have easily been possible. God only knows why Isak couldn't play. If he's not back for the final match, I'm not confident we will make it, even though it's at home - against Everton! Theoretically, we'll probably win on Sunday. Maybe there's a 40% chance it's a draw or loss. 20% chance that Villa doesn't win at Old Trafford. Well, then there is still a 20% chance we miss Champions League. This is huge for us. We can keep it from being huge for one of our rivals. Advantage builds on advantage. There have been so many matches that could have seen off our challengers, but they didn't come through. 2-1 and 1-0 results that left it up to us. Now, the final throw of the dice is here, and of course we can still lose. Let's hope our 80% odds are enough.
Scoreless in the first half. We've had more possession, but I think theirs have been the better chances. It's really hard to see how we're going to create much at this point. Just need to convert one of the ones we get.
They've scored a header, and we're out of the Champions League as it stands. This was our nightmare, although we were given a 70% chance of victory.
Man U have scored, already playing with a man advantage. How embarrassing for us, but back in 5th for now.
5th place and Champion's League! Villa must be kicking themselves. Forest, too. We left the door open, and nobody walked through. That was a shame, because it must have dampened their season celebration at St James'. They even brought out the cup. Nevertheless, it was so important for PSR, especially this transfer window, when we need to end our spending drought. Now, there's more money and a lot more willingness for the best players to come to Newcastle to play in the Champion's League. Howay the off-season.