Yeah, for RSL the most realistic thing is a 5th place finish. Which is truly remarkable for this team, but also looks like a certain matchup at Portland in a one-off and not something I would favor us in, at all. The cRapids run of games coming up is really tough. They host Seattle on Wednesday then Portland on the weekend. If they drop points across those two games they could easily fall to 4th. They then have to go to league best New England. Its a really tough run of games. They finish with LAFC at home. With how LAFC has played this year, that could be for a playoff birth so another difficult one. Right below us is LAG and they have a pair of games this week that could see them jump above us. The midweek game is a test of how real they are. Houston won't have much to play for, so they should go in and win. They then get Dallas at home, again, a non-playoff team that they should beat. They'll need those 6 points because their last three (SKC SEA and MIN) could see just a single point. For us, as has been said since the schedule came out, we can't go into the last gameday needing points. On the road with SKC is a tough draw no matter what. This weekend is against a non-playoff team in the East. One that looks bad. Pablo has to win it. That is followed by a trip to Dallas. between the two, 4 points seems the minimum in order to stay in the playoff picture. San Jose and Portland at home after that are games where perfect home form should setup to make the last game easier. Otherwise, I fear LAFC figure their shit out (the West hasn't distanced themselves yet and I think we'll pay for it) and make a run. On the Eastern side of things, I had to pull back in the schedules for the Red Bulls and Columbus because of how crazy it is out there. It's New England and then a massive shrug emoji. It would be hilarious if the 4 teams across the two big metros (NY and LA) missed out on the playoffs. It would suck for TV numbers, I know, but man would it be a funny thing to have happen. I'm hoping for it, honestly.
Minnesota, LAFC, and Galaxy all won tonight. Bad results for our playoff hopes. Portland was up 2-0, but as of 9:37pm and 70' minute, Vancouver got one back. I'm just counting Portland in, so Vancouver points are no good.
And Portland gives up a late pk for a Vancouver win. Tonight went the worst possible way for RSL but it’s all good because RSL still controls their destiny and we all know how well RSL does with that!
yeah, we dropped below the playoff line. The game this weekend just got all that much more important. We can't be chasing points in the last few games of the season. The cRapids draw with Seattle also kept Seattle at touching distance for SKC. If SKC has a chance to take the top spot on the last day, when we play them, we're ********ed.
So…. Still at 42pts - 10/23 at CHI : OOPS! - 10/27 at FCD - 10/30 vs SJ - 11/3 vs POR - 11/7 at SKC We’ll need probably 7pts in the next 4 to realistically have a chance. I’d consider both @FCD and San Jose home must-wins, and hope for a point from the other 2. Or maybe win the home game and hope for a point elsewhere. Even if it looks dire, I’ve still gotta say I am impressed with the team that they are in the mix. I thought our year would look like San Jose’s or worse.
Looking at the remaining schedules, I was so right. All the non-guaranteed playoff teams in the mix are playing other contenders or “already-qualified” teams to finish the season, except Portland has us and Austin. Definitely the easiest SoS (strength of schedule) left in the West. If we can somehow get a win in our last 2games, we’ve got a chance. Home vs. Portland and away to SKC. Yeah…… I am pessimistic, but hopeful, and am considering this season a win for the players and staff keeping it together regardless. Well done!
We’re disappointed, but you are right. I don’t remember anyone in preseason predicting RSL would make the playoffs. At least one national soccer columnist predicted us to finish dead last in the West.
There will be some intense matches in the West in the next week. Both of our opponents will be motivated. If we somehow beat PTFC we have to go to SKC. SKC probably won’t be resting players because they are in a dogfight for home field advantage through the West playoff. Pretty much all of the contending 6 have a path to get in with one more loss depending on what happens with the others, but they all have to be thinking they need to win all of their remaining games to qualify. LAFC v. Vancouver on Tuesday. We need them to draw. Each has a very tough final game. If they both draw Tuesday and draw or lose next weekend we will qualify with one more win. Regardless, if we lose both of our 2 games, we are out. If we draw both of them we have a tiny window depending on how Vancouver, LAG, and LAFC do.
Here's how I see the final matches playing out: Vancouver (50 points) 11/02 - Away at LAFC (Loss) 11/07 - Home against Seattle (Win) LA Gals (49 points) 11/01 - Away at Seattle (Loss) 11/07 - Home against Minnesota (Win) Minnesota (48 points) 11/07 - Away at LA Galaxy (Loss) LAFC (47 points - eliminated) 11/02 - Home against Vancouver (Win) 11/07 - Away at Colorado (Loss) That puts the line 3 points ahead of us at 48 points where we'd get in ahead of Minnesota on Wins. Does anyone really think we can win against Portland or SKC? Portland is much more dangerous than San Jose on the counter and away at SKC? Give me a break. But who knows, maybe both LAFC and LA Gals will lose out and we can squeak out a tie and get in on goal differential.
Put me in the Debbie-downer camp, but I don't see us winning against Portland or SKC. I thought Saturday was a must-win game and the only real opportunity to take advantage of the game-in-hand we had. We'll see what happens, but I see RSL ending below the playoff line. It seems like we rarely take advantage of the "destiny in our own hands" situation and always rely on other team results to get us over the finish line.
The Chicago and San Jose games were the RSL ticket to entering the RSL playoffs on their own terms. They should be sitting at 51 points and in the playoffs if they had played anywhere near what they have shown against some of the top teams in the west recently. 49 points if they only kind of showed up and 47 points if half the team showed up. As it stands they are at 45 points and hoping they will show up against Portland and SKC and that other teams results fall their way. It will at least be interesting.
Speaking of the game against SKC, I don’t love seeing PRO allowing them to make unpunished red-card challenges down the stretch (Melia bodyslam of Roldan and Dia scissor on Reynoso). I guess I can only hope their comfort with infringement leads to a sendoff (or two or three) at the worst possible time for them. Also, I don’t know where this puts me as a fan, but I am loving watching this year’s playoff race unfold, whether or not RSL ultimately makes it in.
(Updating @15 to 32's post) Here is the playoff picture heading into tonight's game: *Reminder, top 7 teams make playoffs in each division EASTERN CONFERENCE 1. New England - Clinched (73pts, 33MP, 1 GR, 1 Home) - 11/7 vs MIA 2. Philadelphia - Clinched (53pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Away) - 11/7 at NYC 3. Nashville - Clinched (53pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Home) - 11/7 vs NYRB 4. New York City (50pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Home) - 11/7 vs PHI 5. Orlando (48pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Away) - 11/7 at MTL 6. Atlanta (47pts, 32 MP, 2 GR, 2 Away) - 11/3 at NYRB - 11/7 at CIN 7. New York Red Bulls (46pts, 32 MP, 2 GR, 1 Home / 1 Away) - 11/3 vs ATL - 11/7 at NSH 8. DC United (44 pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Away) - 11/7 at TFC 9. Columbus Crew (44pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Home) - 11/7 vs CHI 10. Montreal (43pts, 32 MP, 2 GR, 2 Home) - 11/3 vs HOU - 11/7 vs ORL WESTERN CONFERENCE 1. Seattle - Clinched (59pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Away) - 11/7 at VAN 2. Kansas City - Clinched (58pts, 32 MP, 2 GR, 1 Home / 1 Away) - 11/3 at ATX - 11/7 vs RSL 3. cRapids - Clinched (58pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Home) - 11/7 vs LAFC 4. Portland - Clinched (49pts, 32 MP, 2 GR, 1 Home / 1 Away) - 11/3 at RSL - 11/7 vs ATX 5. Minnesota (48pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Away) - 11/7 at LAG 6. Vancouver (48pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Home) - 11/7 vs SEA 7. LA Galaxy (47pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Home) - 11/7 vs MIN 8. Salt Lake (45pts, 32 MP, 2 GR, 1 Home / 1 Away) - 11/3 vs POR - 11/7 at SKC 9. Los Angeles FC (45pts, 33 MP, 1 GR, 1 Away) - 11/7 at cRp
Thanks @SenordrummeR2. I picked a hell of a week to be out of town and changing jobs... anyways Some thoughts: It is really weird to see NER be sooooo good, and yet nobody would mistake that team as the best team in league history. The unbalanced schedule really hurts our ability to truly assess them. That and their lack of any names just doesn't feel like they're at that TFC/ATL level of teams past. Still, major respect. Bruce Arena outcoached everyone. Go figure Spots 4-8 in both conferences are a complete cluster. The nice thing in the West is that nobody has the top spot locked, so nobody is going to coast down the stretch here. Hard part is that Portland is going to want full 3 to keep a lock on the 4th place spot so they can host in the first round. Minnesota and LAG playing each other is good in that both cant' get 3 points, but we cant finish above both unfortunately. Vancouver and seattle is in our favor (see below) and LAFC cRapids too (see below) Seattle will need the full 3 against Vancouver if they want a bye. Sporting will go all out against ATX. cRapids aren't going to go easy on LAFC. Every game but one on decision day out West (POR v ATX), in some ridiculous miracle, has two playoff hopeful teams competing. The scheduling gods did some magic Tonight's game is the biggest of the season, that's not a hot take or anything. Any realistic chance RSL has at being in the playoffs rides on getting at least a point, and more likely 3. There is a very small chance we could afford to lose, but that would then require the full 3 at SKC who, again, will be playing for top spot and a bye. Knowing those asshats, they'd love nothing more than to be able to eliminate us from playoff contention in that, too.
You didn't stop sniffing glue the same week, right? Good luck on the new job! New England is a puzzle. The Eastern Conference schedule helped them, but I don't recall many games where the completely dominated and blew teams out of the water. They're good, but I agree they aren't on the same level as LAFC, TFC, or ATL in those record setting years. I could see them going all the way, but I could also see them joining the ranks of teams that set records during the season and then couldn't win the cup (looking at you, 2007 Patriots). I saw some guys on Twitter claiming an RSL win tonight will clinch a playoff spot. I'm not sure how that math works out, but it makes the game that much more important. Being able to play SKC on Sunday with a spot already clinched would be nice. Depending on how things shake out we could see some rivalry games in the postseason. I wouldn't mind playing the cRapids in the first round.
Minnesota can finish at 48-49-51 points. 13 or 14 wins LAG can finish at 47-48-50 points. 13 or 14 wins Minnesota and LAG play each other. LAFC can finish at 45-46-48 points. 12 or 13 wins LAFC plays Crapids. RSL can finish at 45-46-47-48-51 points 13-14 or 15 wins If I read it right with a win and at 48 points: RSL would beat LAFC with the wins tiebreaker if they both finish at 48 points. If Minnesota loses to LAG RSL advances over Minn. with the wins tiebreaker. If Minnesota beats LAG RSL advances by one point over LAG 48-47 If Minnesota and LAG tie RSL advances over LAG with the wins tiebreaker. If RSL finishes with 47 points and LAG have 47 points RSL "should" advance on GD. RSL also advances over VAN on the wins tiebreaker if they both end up at 48 points. VAN plays Seattle. VAN can end up with 48-49-51 points. If RSL is level with them in points they are a higher seed. 3 points from Chicago or FCD would have done it for them. Win and you're in looks like the truth. Two wins and they finish 4th. Wins by Minn and VAN put them both at 51 points and if RSL finishes at 51 points, which is where they should be actually, they advance with the wins tiebreaker.
Sure to be wrong prediction out West: 1. SKC 64pts 2. Seattle 60pts 3. cRapids 59pts 4. Portland 52pts 5. LAG 50pts 6. Vancouver 49pts 7. RSL 48pts (13 wins & better GD) 8. Minnesota 48pts (13 wins but worse GD) 9. LAFC 46pts Which sets us up to get destroyed in Seattle on opening weekend of the playoffs. Joy
A point brought up on the interview with Taylor Twellman by Trey: with the playoffs starting after the November FIFA window, the 1 seed will get 3 weeks of rest. There is speculation that teams actually don't want that much time off and, out West, you might see teams positioning to finish 2nd as opposed to 1st. Another key point: neither SKC or Seattle have won MLS Cup as a 1 seed. So no real argument that they'd benefit from home field advantage, either.
I was banking on RSL winning last night and Portland getting their 3 points against ATX. I guess points wise those two can still happen, but it would be miraculous. Also, SKC just lost 3-1 to ATX so... not sure who that helps, but my prediction there is at least 3 points wrong.