The (Other) Serie A Races [R]

The Serie A Races

Here are the races and contenders with 1 games left. * magic number is an American sports term, which means this many total points EARNED by one team and LOST by its nearest competitor are needed to clinch the spot.

Juventus 69 (SCUDETTO WINNERS!!!!!!!)

Inter 64 (clinched CL qualifying berth; magic number to clinch 2nd place = 1 pts)

Milan 61 (clinched CL qualifying berth)

Lazio 60 (clinchee CL qualifying berth)

There are 3 UEFA Cup spots. One goes to the Coppa winner or, if the winner qualifies for the Champions League, the losing finalist. Roma and Milan are in the final. If Milan stays in the top four (or wins the Champions League), Roma goes to the UEFA Cup, regardless of the outcome, and regardless of their final position. If Milan does NOT qualify for the CL, Roma would have to win the Coppa - or finish in the top 7 - to qualify for the UEFA Cup.

Chievo 55 (magic number to clinch 6th place and UEFA Cup berth = 2 pts)

Parma 53
Udinese 53
(magic number for either to clinch 6th place and UEFA Cup berth = 4 pts)

There are also two InterToto spots. Udinese has declared they won't enter. I don't know which other teams have said this. I'm not even listing magic number for it here. Rather, for the following teams I will list the points they need to guarantee not being relegated.

Roma 49 (UEFA Cup as Coppa finalist)

Bologna 41

Perugia 41

Brescia 41

Empoli 38

Modena 37 (2 pts)

For the bottom five teams, the number is "death number" - the total points which, if dropped by them or won by 14th-placed team, would ensure relegation.

Reggina 35 (4 pts)

Atalanta 35 (4 pts)

Piacenza 27 - RELEGATED

Como 21 - RELEGATED

Torino 20 - RELEGATED

 

Some mistakes were pointed out to me, namely that Roma would qualify for the UEFA Cup, simply as being a finalist in the Coppa - as long as Milan remains in the Champions League zone.

There is also at least one team that has declined to make themselves available for the Inter Toto Cup - Udinese. Still trying to find out if others have made this declaration.

I will update the magic numbers with yesterday's results as soon as I have a few minutes.

 

Basically, any team with a "magic number" of 6 or less can clinch that race. The following races could be settled this weekend:

Juventus could clinch the Scudetto if they win and Inter loses.

Inter could clinch fourth place and a CL berth if they win or Parma loses or both draw or various other combinations.

Roma, Perugia, Bologna, and Brescia could all guarantee survival in Serie A.

Torino will be relegated if they fail to win. Como could also be relegated this weekend.

Remember, games are all on Saturday this weekend:

Atalanta-Inter
Chievo-Piacenza
Lazio-Juventus
Milan-Como
Modena-Empoli
Parma-Bologna
Perugia-Brescia
Reggina-Roma
Torino-Udinese

 

Results:

Atalanta 1 Inter 1
Chievo 3 Piacenza 1
Lazio 0 Juventus 0
Milan 2 Como 0
Modena 1 Empoli 1
Parma 1 Bologna 2
Perugia 0 Brescia 0
Reggina 2 Roma 3
Torino 0 Udinese 1

 

"races", plural. As in, Champions League spots, relegation, etc.

This week's winners and losers -

Como and Torino are officially relegated.
Roma and Bologna are officially safe.
Not that there were really going to be any doubts about that.

Piacenza is hanging on by a thread but have Reggina at home next week which is their last gasp. Reggina really messed up by getting only 1 point out of their last two games at home. They seem to be counting on Juve winning the Scudetto next week and then handing them a win the following week.

Which could well be the case. A Juve win at home to Perugia (wouldn't THAT be sweet) would clinch the championship. Today's point did clinch 2nd place for Juve as Milan can officially officially catch them.

Parma was another big loser, as you mention, dropping to 5th behind Chievo and just about losing sight of the Champions League. I'd really love for Chievo to somehow nip Lazio for fourth.

Milan is close to clinching a CL berth - which would clinch a UEFA Cup spot for Roma, although they are now in 7th and would qualify anyway at this point. Udinese kept hope alive to finish 6th and go to the UEFA Cup.

With Udinese not interested in participating, Bologna and Perugia are looking likely to be the Inter Toto qualifiers. They'll each want to finish ahead of the other, as the first qualifier gets an extra few weeks summer break.

Empoli and Modena kept each other in nervous territory with a draw, but that last relegation spot is almost certainly going to come down to Atalanta and Reggina.

 

Things that can happen this weekend:

Juve can win the Scudetto if they win or Inter fail to do so.

Inter and Milan could clinch 4th place and a CL qualifying berth (should Milan do so, it guarantees a UEFA Cup spot for Roma)

Chievo could clinch at least a UEFA Cup spot

Perugia, Brescia, Empoli and Modena could clinch a spot in Serie A next season.

Piacenza could be relegated.

The most interesting races remaining are, obviously, the relegation battle between Reggina and Atalanta, but also the battle for the last Champions League berth (Lazio and Chievo) and the last UEFA Cup berth (Parma and Udinese).

This week's slate:

Bologna-Lazio
Brescia-Milan
Como-Chievo
Empoli-Atalanta
Inter-Parma
Juventus-Perugia
Piacenza-Reggina
Roma-Torino
Udinese-Modena

 

You got it, Mario. Even Perugia's late equalizer didn't ruin la festa, thanks to Inter's tie with Parma. Relegation battle remains all square. All the results:

Bologna 0 Lazio 2
Brescia 1 Milan 0
Como 2 Chievo 4
Empoli 0 Atalanta 0
Inter 1 Parma 1
Juventus 2 Perugia 2
Piacenza 2 Reggina 2
Roma 3 Torino 1
Udinese 2 Modena 1

In the races for spots in Europe, Inter clinched no worse than 4th place and a Champions League qualifying berth. Milan STILL could not nail down a Champions League berth, Chievo could not gain ground on Lazio for the last CL spot, Udinese and Parma are now tied for what is most likely the last UEFA Cup berth, and Brescia has vaulted into Inter Toto contention alongside Bologna and Perugia.

 

Now that the mid-week excitement has sort of died down, these are the things that could be decided by the end of tomorrow:

- Inter could clinch second place.
- Milan and Lazio could clinch CL berths (if Milan does so, it clinches a UEFA Cup berth for Roma).
- Chievo could clinch a UEFA Cup berth.
- Modena and Empoli could clinch a berth in Serie A next year.
- Piacenza could be relegated.

The schedule:

Atalanta-Como
Chievo-Roma
Lazio-Brescia
Milan-Bologna
Modena-Inter
Parma-Piacenza
Perugia-Udinese
Reggina-Juventus
Torino-Empoli

 

Afraid not. Chievo and Roma tie while Lazio wins to clinch 4th place. The only CL issue not settled is whether Inter or Milan finishes 2nd.

The final two UEFA Cup spots remain up for grabs between Chievo, Parma and Udinese.

Brescia, Bologna and Perugia are battling for two (or one, if Udinese qualifies for the UEFA Cup) InterToto spots.

Atalanta and Reggina both won, but Empoli and Modena failed to clinch, so their are numerous possibilities in the relegation battle. Most likely at this point seems to be a playoff between Atalanta and Reggina, but we'll see.

Piacenza blew a 2-0 lead and lost to Parma and are down although they were down even if they'd won because of results elsewhere.

 

Perugia may opt out of InterToto consideration.
http://www.channel4.com/sport/football_italia/may19a.html

 

If they opt out of the tournament, it means they WOULD have a summer vacation. That's why many teams don't like the InterToto. In the recent past, Italian teams have used mostly their "primavera" squads for any early rounds, and if they make it to the later rounds, then the bigger players join in with real effort to make it to the UEFA Cup. Last summer, Torino (I'd forgotten!) made it one round before getting KO'd while Bologna got all the way to the final. Torino is not the first Serie A team to start their season in the InterToto and finish it getting relegated. The same thing happened to Sampdoria several years ago. There is little motivation for teams who can barely keep themselves in Serie A from year to year to start their seasons so early. However, Italian teams have also used the tournament as a springboard to successful UEFA Cup runs - most notably, Bologna (1998 - UEFA Cup semis) and Udinese (1999 - UEFA Cup 4th round). So teams have to weigh the potential rewards as well as the consequences.

 

Given the dilemma facing some clubs as to whether it's worth entering the Inter Toto Cup, I was curious about the Italian clubs' history in the Inter Toto - and how they did the following Serie A season - since it became an avenue into the UEFA Cup in 1998.

1998
2nd round entrant - Sampdoria (qualified in 9th place of Serie A)
3rd round entrant - Bologna (8th)

Bologna KO'd Sampdoria in the 4th round and went on to win a place in the UEFA Cup. They subsequently went on to the semifinals of that competition. In the following Serie A, season
Bologna finished 9th while Sampdoria finished 16th and were relegated.

1999
2nd round entrant - Perugia (14th)
3rd round entrant - Juventus (6th)

Perugia was KO'd in the third round. Juventus won a place in the UEFA Cup, proceeding to the 4th round. In Serie A, Juventus finished 2nd (to Lazio) while Perugia finished 10th.

2000
2nd round entrant - Perugia (10th)
3rd round entrant - Udinese (8th)

Perugia lost in the second round. Udinese won a place in the UEFA Cup and lost in the first round. In Serie A, Perugia finished 11th and Udinese finished 12th (one point out of the relegation zone).

2001
3rd round entrant - Brescia (8th)

Brescia advanced to the final but lost on away goals to Paris St. Germain. In the subsequent Serie A season, they finished 13th (one point out of the relegation zone).

2002
2nd round entrant - Torino (11th)
3rd round entrant - Perugia (8th)
3rd round entrant - Bologna (7th)

Torino and Perugia lost in the third round while Bologna advanced to the final. In the subsequent (current) Serie A season, Torino has been relegated while Bologna and Perugia currently stand 10th and 11th (and are safe from relegation).

So out of 10 Italian entrants, 3 have succeeded in advancing to the UEFA Cup while 3 have been relegated. The average Serie A position of the teams the season they qualified for the InterToto Cup was 9th place. On average, in the following Serie A season, InterToto teams finished 11th. You can easily see why teams have some reluctance to enter this competition.

 

The final week of games:

Bologna-Reggina
Brescia-Modena
Como-Torino
Empoli-Parma
Inter-Perugia
Juventus-Chievo
Piacenza-Milan
Roma-Atalanta
Udinese-Lazio

At the end of the day, two clubs will be very disappointed - one of Atalanta, Reggina and Modena will be relegated - and one of Chievo, Udinese and Parma will miss out on the UEFA Cup.

I never saw any confirmation on whether Perugia would enter the Inter Toto if they qualify.

 

Okay, I just checked Perugia's site, and Cosmi has said they will wait to see how things work out before making any decision about the Inter Toto. Their goal is to "finish ahead of Bologna and Brescia".

 

And the final results:

Bologna 0 Reggina 2
Brescia 2 Modena 2
Como 0 Torino 0
Empoli 0 Parma 2
Inter 2 Perugia 2
Juventus 4 Chievo 3
Piacenza 4 Milan 2
Roma 1 Atalanta 2
Udinese 2 Lazio 1

And the final table:

Juventus 72 (automatic CL berth)
Inter 65 (automatic CL berth)
Milan 61 (automatic CL berth as holders)
Lazio 60 (CL qualifying berth)
Parma 56 (UEFA Cup)
Udinese 56 (UEFA Cup)
Chievo 55
Roma 49 (UEFA Cup as Coppa Italia finalists)
Brescia 42 (Inter Toto)
Perugia 42 (Inter Toto)
Bologna 41
Empoli 38
Modena 38
Atalanta 38 (relegation playoff May 29-June 1)
Reggina 38 (relegation playoff May 29-June 1)
Piacenza 30 (relegated)
Como 24 (relegated)
Torino 21 (relegated)

Chievo, Perugia and Bologna all turned down possible Inter Toto Cup berths. Brescia will be Italy's only representative in that competition this summer.

(subsequent to posting this, Perugia reversed their decision and WILL participate in the Inter Toto Cup.