A substack data deepdive I read today seems related to this topic. How far is the USMNT from competing for a World Cup? https://substack.com/@usmntdata/p-147599169 Worth a read in its entirety but here are main points: - ranked national teams based on total minutes played by players in top 5 leagues - made an argument based on national teams' performances - US finished 20th in big 5 league minutes played in 2023-24 - we've made BIG improvements but still far behind the top 9 - FC Dallas and Philly Union have done extremely well in producing players logging big 5 minutes but other academies need to improve ok so "MLS academies need to do better" isn't earth shattering but as a numbers geek, seeing all the numbers and metrics was fun for me.
The idea MLS fans are somehow a separate group from soccer fans in general is absurd. I go to every game in my town and the people around me talk about soccer of all types. I've been a soccer fan since I was a kid watching Soccer Made in Germany and still pay attention to teams from Europe but have space for MLS as well. I have several issues with MLS, mostly around their byzantine salary and roster rules. But as someone who is old enough to have lived through the rise and fall of the NASL (Go Chicago Sting!) as well as watch the US soccer landscape get littered with come and go indoor leagues and lower-level teams not much better than college guys playing pickup, I'm extremely happy to have a stable league here for the long run that puts resources into the game. That the national team hasn't improved by leaps and bounds during this time is far more the result of the US having mediocre fan support for soccer in general where they can only really pack large stadiums for preseason Euro tours or big national team events while the soccer fans who think they're too good for MLS can't be bothered to participate regularly in person. When the US cares as much about soccer as it cares about American Football, which means watching in person and putting your money down, we'll be true contenders. Until then, we will always struggle when we come up against the big boys. And nothing MLS can do will change that in either direction, although the proliferation of increased access to opportunities to get involved as a professional having a league brings will help incrementally. I mean, that's where most of our guys in Europe start out beyond the ones we recruit because they couldn't make their own countries' team, not exactly a great way to think you're somehow then going to beat those teams they left behind. As a fan of soccer who likes to go to games and enjoys watching soccer in my home country rather than on TV or the odd trip abroad, I'm very happy to have MLS and I am absolutely a soccer fan far beyond being an MLS fan. The idea that people who go to MLS games and support their hometown team are someone not real soccer fans as opposed to those real fans who watch international games from their couch is simply absurd on every level.
Here's the similarity from the men to the women. The USSF wasn't happy with Andonovski's result 3 years ago at the last Olympics (2020 Olympics held in 2021). Stuck with him and the inevitable subpar World Cup came. The yellow flags were there that the program wasn't moving in the right direction. [It wasn't horrid. Three draws. The USWNT has lost one game since November of 2022. There were 3 draws at the World Cup.] That was actually Crocker's first crisis to deal with when he took over the gig as sporting director. [ it wasn't his decision to stick with Andonovski for the World Cup, but it was his decision to fire him. The only way US Soccer will change the way soccer is organized is if the USWNT decline. | Page 3 | BigSoccer Forum So the USSF and Crocker learned from that. They didn't accept the poor Copa America result and "stick" with Berhalter thru the World Cup. [They could have said "we didn't advance because of Weah's red card. We would have otherwise.] Crocker didn't like the direction and made the change. They didn't repeat the Andonovski mistake.
I'd only quibble that the US was worse than the results actually looked at the Olympics in '21, and I think it showed through several measures (probably the biggest being how "not" goal dangerous they were, repeatedly getting shut out, a problem throughout that dude's tenure). I'd also tie all that in to youth development being a problem. I don't know what's wrong, But I definitely think the fact that the US Women consistently made runs to the final or at bare minimum the SF of the U20 WC from 2002-2012, and only once since, and that they made a similar run in the U17 WC which began a decade letter, and haven't made the semi's since is equally a sign of weakening in the US Women's game. I don't want to get too caught up in how strong this Olympic Performance was, even though it was. I think part of that was about our path, part of that was about player health (I think only 1 critical player was out for this tournament due to injury and we had a deep pool at her position (Maccario), but I do genuinely worry about the depth of the program due to developmental sputtering. I've got my eyes keenly on this upcoming U20 WC. Will they make a run again after a decade of mostly disappointment? Will they suck yet again? We'll see. They made the confederation final but fell on a late goal to Mexico 14 months ago, something I definitely found alarming. They're drawn into a group with Spain, Paraguay, and Morocco and open with Spain on September 1st, so, definitely intrigued by how things play out here.
I don't think its actually a weakening of the women's game in the US. I think its a strengthening of the women's game around the world. Particularly due to the increase in investment in the club game in Europe. Even at this event, they went to extra time in their Japan quarterfinal and Germany semifinal. The final against Brazil was very tight, and I'd argue Brazil was the better team for long stretches. All three of those games could have gone the other direction. But hey, that's the way international soccer goes. You need that lucky bounce sometimes. You need that dramatic keeper save when you're being outplayed. The USWNT will NEVER go back to their dominance of the past. That day is gone. Its gone across all levels: Youth and senior USWNT.
Yup, it's amazing to me how much soccer is all over TV now after that being the only thing you could see back then. I went from watching every scrap of soccer that was televised to now ignoring much of it because I actually have to do other things sometimes. The progress that we have seen is stunning when you take a longer view.
We are in the process of changing what we are doing dramatically. The MLS academy program only began in earnest, outside of a couple of clubs, around 2014, so a 7 year-old starting out at a MLS academy then would be 17 now. A 10 year-old would be 20. It would be harsh to shut down a system that has barely started functioning. I'm not sure what the alternative would be. The most obvious way to produce better players is to get more kids playing soccer and have our best athletes choose soccer over other sports. USSF don't have a magic wand or the resources to do that. USSF is essentially an administrator and regulator that runs national teams on the side.
We do not have enough MLS clubs to cover the entire country. Plus MLS clubs usually pick the best players from expensive travel programs. And that is why I said in my post that it is a youth sports issue, not just a soccer issue. It is just a bigger deal in men's soccer because the competition is much, much higher.
Conservatively, close to 60% of US households are served by a MLS club and over 20% are served by a USL club. So maybe the pro club/Fed partnership is the way to go. It's the way other countries do it and some of those have geographical challenges.
Also a number of MLS clubs have a large network of youth affiliates. Then they bring the best players from those affiliates to the MLS Next academy. FC Dallas is one well known for that as they have 11 youth affiliates. [For instance, Ricardo Pepi coming from FCD El Paso.] Everyone is doing the right thing. We're investing. We're developing the system. In particular clubs are developing their networks of scouts and talent evaluators. Building their youth coaching structures. Sporting Kansas City youth affiliate clubs. If we draw the map with all youth affiliates and not just the main academies..................MLS covers a lot of territory. We don't have to provide free soccer for every kid in the country that's impossible. Have the scouts to identify the best players, get them to the right academies. There are players in that part of the country like Daryl Dike that didn't play in an MLS academy. But Daryl Dike was offered a spot in an MLS academy and chose not to go that route. His choice. He was identified.
They also had what might have been just a coincidental ebb in the emergence of key players from the latter half of the 90s birth years, basically between Rose Lavelle (1995) and Sophia Smith (2000), compared to the first half of the 90s or the last half of the 80s which formed the player pools in their primes for 2015 and 2019. The most significant player from that age group is Mallory Swanson, who was injured for the World Cup, and there's also Cat Macario who hasn't really broken through internationally due to so many injuries. That age cohort is not too old for others to emerge, such as Sam Coffey and Emily Fox, but the 2023 team didn't have an elite core of mid-20s ballers like the previous teams did.
What do people realisticly want? I mean mls and usl both have academies and we have guys playing in Europe .
I have never seen a fanbase of anything root for mediocrity like this. It is like most you guys don't want to get better. I have a theory on this, but doubt the mods would like it so will keep to myself.
Well that solves it. Clint said everyone was doing the right thing. I dont have the energy for crap like this now, but will likely push on this in the future.
What exactly is mediocrity? We're ranked 16th in the world. How exactly is that mediocre? That guys have delusional ideas of what the US should look like or be is the problem.
You're correct that's why a used the term "conservatively". MLS and USL clubs cover the population of 80% of media markets but you're right they do have networks that go beyond that. RSL has had satellite academies across Utah and Nevada for years. But a young kid in North Dakota, 3 hours from the nearest city probably isn't going to have a local coaching and scouting network and there's really not a lot you can do about that without an unlimited budget. But we do have high schools as NCAA as backup if that talented kid doesn't drift into another sport. I read an article about unearthing talent in Uruguay. It's a soccer culture. Every parent, grandpa and uncle is on the lookout for the next GOAT. If a kid from a remote village in the northwest of the country shows talent word will get out and the top scouts will show up out of nowhere. The most talented kids will get a ticket to and accommodation in Montevideo and their parents might get a job opportunity to move there too. In crowded countries like Belgium and the Netherlands there's an amateur club on every corner with a kid's program and links to the professional clubs. Then you have England and France with their huge meat factories, importing kids from all over the country and all over the world, 90 per cent of whom are cast out and don't go on to a career in professional soccer. There was a scandal in Europe a few years ago where African kids who had moved to Europe to join top football academies, but hadn't made the grade, were sleeping rough in the streets with no jobs or education and UEFA was forced to take action. https://www.theguardian.com/football/2008/jan/06/newsstory.sport4? https://www.theguardian.com/football/2017/oct/06/football-biggest-issue-boys-rejected-academies? And then we have America where we don't have a soccer culture, we don't have a network of amateur scouts, we don't have amateur teams on every corner and we don't have meat factories with an endless supply of eager but näive kids. If you're lucky enough to have the chance to play soccer and you have a teacher or parent who cares, and you find the right coach, and that coach has connections, or you impress in front of scouts at a local tournament or tryout, you might get into an academy, whether it be a pro club's free academy or a scholarship at a pay to play academy. But the stars have to be aligned. Most parents are still going buy their soccer mad kid a helmet or put a hoop next to the garage and challenge them to a game of 1 on 1 and that's not going to change for a couple of generations.