Baffling roster selections, setting up the team to play less then the sum of its parts, coach who is in way over his head, players that crack under the pressure of big games. And to those who say “b-but there is WAY more talent on the senior side, it’ll be different” Guess you’ll find out the hard way.
My apologies. @bungadiri @dark knight can you move this thread to the non analysis and news section thank you.
The worst thing about the Olympic loss is the implication that no matter how good our players are, the coaching and organization might undermine them, not even intentionally, because they don't know what they're doing.
Yeah, no. A good chunk of the roster qualified multiple times for U17 and U20 World Cups (6 for 6 and 4 of the 6 were held in Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama and Jamaica since 2015), and those who haven't either played in previous cycles, or are tested in big time leagues in Europe. They aren't scared and they shouldn't be. There won't be a hard way. It'll be like '06, '10 and '14, not like '17, and hopefully not like the injury apocalypse that was the summer of '01. I expect dropped points in Mexico, probably Honduras, and a sure loss in Costa Rica as always, but I don't believe it will be difficult, I believe it will be typical, and we'll qualify with plenty of room to spare ala '06-'14.
This Olympic team in Mexico shows us nothing. In 2015 we could say that the failure was a sign of things to come with the USMNT [We were only missing Yedlin. Brooks hadn't committed yet.] If we were to take the "real" US U23 team, it think its possible that only the goalkeepers make it. [I could finagle the formation to start Musah, but I decided not bother.] Here's the "real" US U23 team -------------Sargent----------- Pulisic---Reyna---Weah ----Adams---McKennie-- Robinson-McKenzie-Richards-Dest -------------Ochoa--------------------- Bench: Marcinkowski Palmer-Brown Reynolds Otasowie Aaronson de la Fuente Llanez Musah Hoppe [Ledezma and Pomykal returning from injury.] And this doesn't even get down to the 20 or 30 other guys worth mentioning. Taylor Booth is surging. Gioacchini. The list goes on. We just saw de la Torre for the USMNT. People need to relax about this Olympic qualifying result. I know they wanted to have a squad in the Olympics. On the other hand, the US U23 pool is better than its ever been in our history. That wasn't reflected in any way at the CONCACAF U23 Championships. Kreis has nothing to do with the selection of players for the USMNT. Now that the U23 cycle is over, he goes back to his day job at Inter Miami. He has no role moving forward. On top of that, the development pipeline thru our domestic academies shows no signs of slowing down. McKennie, Pulisic, etc. aren't a "golden generation." They're just the start of the wave.
It's more reality than implication. We saw it in '16-'17, we saw it in '19, and we saw it w/this half-arsed attempt to qualify for the olympics. It's why I always stick in the twin caveats that injuries (obviously) and our Fed/Coaching, are the only things that could block us from qualifying.
Yep, I even saw a normally halfway reasonable pro Mexico poster on twitter talking about it's hubris to say this was a D team. Bull----, it's accurate. This team carried a smattering of players that matter as depth options either because they actually do (Araujo, Yueill, Llanez who got hurt, Tessmann whose rising fast in stock but saw like 5% of the minutes available all tourney because the coach was a dribbling moron, Ferreira and Soto because one is a prospect Forward with upside, and the other is the one false 9 type depth guy we have) and then nearly everything else was basically D/F quality way down the depth chart, or has been call ups from the '19 debacle (Jonathan Lewis, Herrera, Mihailovic). It would be shocking if more than 4-5 of these guys had regular 23 call ups outside the camp cupcake window, and if any of them ever started a game that mattered other than the several years away prospects (Soto, Llanez, Araujo, Tessmann) who aren't close to starting at this point anyway. To argue that the debacle carried any mean about the first choice 23, or the best up and coming prospects is ludicrous in the extreme, and yet there some were. I was happily surprised by Doston, by the CB Kellsomethingorother, but nearly all of them performed even below my low expectations which was that 65-75% of them were totally irrelevant to the program period long term, and that those that are, were largely 24-50 or even lower options, or guys that are prospects way down the depth chart (a guy like Araujo is a nice prospect, but what is he at RB, 5th, 6th, 7th string? Herrera is no string, etc) and unlikely to either break through at all, or breakthrough to 24-35 relevancy until after Qatar. The olympics were an indictment, but not of our pool or the top 23 or 11, it was an indictment, of "connected b.s. hirings" and incompetent player selections and First XI's that have plagued us for several years now. It has nothing to do with the actual teams prospects as none of the players that matter now or the next couple of years were there, and very few of the even deep prospects were even there.
Yup. This olympic qualifying event was an exercise to see just how good our depth is. To be fair, our "B" U23 team (at best) beat Costa Rica's "A" U23 team. And lost by a goal to Honduras' "A" U23 team. I know people are freaking out here, but its not actually the crisis folks are making it out to be. To be fair, Kreis' selections were puzzling. He actually had a more attacking and creative group selected when the event was in 2020. We were much happier with the selections. It had all of Brenden Aaronson, Richie Ledezma, and Paxton Pomykal in central midfield. All three unavailable this time. He had Ebobisse and Llanez. Llanez got hurt in camp, and for some reason he didn't pick Jeremy (I guess Soto beat him out). He had McKenzie and Palmer-Brown as his CB partnership. Neither now available. He had Cannon at RB. For some reason nobody seems to be able to explain, he didn't pick the "next men up" from an attacking group. The Calen Clark types. Instead he went with a more pragmatic group. Experienced players, but a group everybody saw was lacking the creativity to unlock defenses. I do think that sometimes USYNT coaches get in the trap of promising roles to dual-nationals they convinced to commit to the USMNT. This team didn't need both Perea and Johnny, for instance. Or frankly, it might not have needed either. But we recruited both of them, and so there we were. Chile was recruiting Soto. Mexico was recruiting Araujo and Ochoa. The list goes on and on. Sometimes you end up picking a squad based on these recruiting issues, and not naming the best possible group.
I think this Olympic qualifying campaign really does show what qualifying will be like, not any of the lessons I see others talking about so far like coaches being terrible, or the federation screwing everything up, nor do I agree that the Olympic qualifying didn't matter and everything will be a breeze because we can make a long list of better guys that weren't there, etc. We are going to get punched in the mouth by hard, well drilled and motivated teams that are willing to do whatever it takes to win. We are going to play teams just like in that Honduras match that are not just bunkered in (sidebar, we got played off the godamn pitch by them that first half, they were technically superior), but are looking for and will capitalize on their 2-3 chances we most certainly will give up. Basically, we are going to be playing teams that are a lot like who we traditionally used to be against even or better competition. Meanwhile we are definitely more talented than we have ever been, but largely untested and moreover we have revamped our entire style and approach to the game and it has not been tested in any meaningful way. I am afraid we might repeat the arrogance and entitlement problem of Couva, that was definitely still in play in these Olympic qualifiers. Thinking our ok holding mids can be magic attacking players, because we are just so much more talented than others, thinking we can play a false 9 all tournament because it looks good on the whiteboard, etc. Playing with possession is the hardest way to play and we are new to it as a whole, I believe in it, it's about time and I am really excited to see it in qualifying, but it is also absolutely terrifying to anyone being honest with themselves imo. I am worried we are taking too much for granted, too wrapped up in nerditry and patterns of play, without really drilling in the basic systems, functions and personnel groupings that we are going to rely on throughout qualifying, where getting cute has never and will never be the answer. Having said all that, I still can't see how we ******** this up with the individual quality we have at our disposal and I have been I think as critical of the USSF and Berhalter as anyone, but I think they are far more collectively competent that the jokers at the helm of 2018.
I think it does show that our depth is not as strong as we’d like it to be... but there’s no doubt that our first and second u23 team are rock solid. It’s when we go deeper that we get into some real turds. At goal - Ochoa needs work. At right back - We’re okay but we should never rest on our laurels. At center back - We’re looking very poor next cycle. At left back - the situation is desperate. Sam Vines needed to prove he could be trusted with a role, and it seems like he failed at that task. Now, we’re in a situation where we only have ONE left back in the pool. At midfield - Jackson Yuiell looked good enough to be a rotational player. But more players played themselves off the team: Perea, Cardoso, etc. actually hurt themselves. At wing - we’re just as crappy as I feared we would be. At center forward - unfortunately, Ferreira’s game turned out to be a fluke. And Soto is done.
Your first half of the post highlights my concern. WCQ on the road is always a dog, and much of this team is used to academy play, MLS and Europe, none of which has any of the fight and scrap that WCQ will have. Where I disagree is that I don't think this has all that much to do with the coaching staff. I don't think the crux is on who the backup 8 is. That's not deciding this. What will decide it is what will Gio Reyna, Christian Pulisic and whomever else get smacked in the face and thrown to the ground over and over again. How do they respond? How do the few scrappers we have -- Weston McKennie, for example -- step up and just make something happen. We may have speed and skill superiority but the pool does not have a size and strength superiority. We have the players to win on nice fields, but how do we guarantee wins on poor fields. It's not as simple as playing defensively like we used to, because coming out of some of these matches hoping for a point may not be good enough anymore. Can we bring the effort when the game isn't going our way. The staff can help that, but that's mostly on the players. The biggest thing the staff can do is prep them for it, and to think about it in selection. Does that move up Daryl Dike? Does it mean leaving less tough players off the field at times? Who the heck do we have that is that kind of player?
Hmmm, I think it has a LOT to do with the staff and I will address that secondarily. First off on the players, I think it would be good to look at Mexico as an obvious example of playing this sort of possession style, with more gifted technical, but not imposing physical players, no? Much as I love to hate them and I do, trust me, they serve as a useful comparison here. They are diminutive but feisty, I think that describes Adams, CP, Aaronson and this may blow you away, but Yueill to a T, no? Then McKennie is straight beast mode, but I rather square up to him honestly than the genetically engineered manchild that is Yunus Musah, far more physical and imposing mids than our previous incarnations. Miazga has a lot of flaws, but his CONCACRAP shithousery game is A+, Long is hanging on to a roster spot only because of physicality, etc. Robison and Cannon are both as big and tall as you are going to get out of FB's in the modern game and both have an underrated physicality imo. So no, I think the pieces are definitely there. I am concerned the coaching staff took forever to shift out of the placid, stupid and useless 4-4-2 softshell defending and then we have imo (and yes I know I am pretty much alone in this), wasted time with a false 9 fancypants wannabe Liverpool pattern of play, which is the antithesis of what we will be doing in qualifying and then a 3 in the back system that makes zero sense whatsoever and will get us murdered if we try it in qualifying, it left our slow and as a position group weak defenders isolated and disconnected, we couldn't press at all out of it and it left the type of giant holes to counter into that we used to see in that 2018 midfield. So no, if we come out flat and unprepared and soft in qualifying and our strikers not playing in the box and wingers running in behind isn't working and we are getting muscled because we are trying to play the same way without Adams and instead inserted someone soft in there, or tried a 3 at the back to compensate that is 100% on the staff and not the players. This staff does not get any of the litany of excuses we have used for other coaches in the past, there is an embarrassment of talent at their disposal, of all types and profiles, they wasted 14 months dicking around with a fake coaching search, there have been more than enough camps and friendlies where we experimented with nonsense, so none of that will fly, put up or shut up.
Frankly, I think our attack is generally small, weak, and have a tendency to sulk a but when things don't go their way. They rely on speed and skill, which can be somewhat mitigated by poor fields and hard fouls. I'm not sure how the rest is relevant to the discussion. What I'm concerned about is that our best offensive players are all finesse players. They rely on smooth fields, well maintained fields and they are largely one on one players, so they can be really frustrated by hard fouls. Is Pulisic feisty? Maybe, although he and Reyna definitely both sulk as things go wrong. More importantly, there's a limit to what he does well. If he can be hacked to death, it's very hard to use his dribbling skill. If the field is a mess, Reyna's passing and close in skill is decreased. If we had a big, burly, CF who scores in the air and can take the hits -- let's say Dike improves rapidly -- then the staff can make sure he's there and helping. Even Siebatcheu looked good as a build-up target man versus Northern Ireland. But nothing about a 14 month hiring delay has anything to do with the fact that it's SUPER easy to stop a one on one player if no one ever calls a foul or gives cards. Hack hack hack. You can't simply feisty your way through that all the time. We're not a good set piece team. We don't have a striker who is great in the air. CONCACAF will take some of our best players down a notch. What the staff can do is probably put some of that into player selection, and work on set pieces. But at the end of the day, it's far more important how players like Reyna and Pulisic react than what Berhalter plans, IMO.
Your post I responded to didn't seem localized to just the offense and you mentioned McKennie as a scrapper, so I mentioned the others that seem like scrappers. Totally get your point on the bad fields and fouls mitigating the skill guys and the tendency towards frustration and histrionics from CP and Gio. I do think Puli got the business in qualifying last round and was very disappointed in the vets lack of retaliation, I am hopeful Wes, Adams and Musah will rectify that specific issue. As fir the fields, conditions, etc. That is why I brought up Mexico, they overcome it with their skill and scrappiness despite those issues, we will have to do likewise in some measure. I also think having so many more skill guys will diffuse the ability of our competition to key on one player like Pulisic to disrupt everything. Then to drill down on your points, which are very good ones, we should have been developing more of a plan B with a banger of a forward and crosses into the box for the occasions we will need one. Again, I think that is on the staff. We don't have much in the way of false 9's but that hasn't stopped us from experimenting with them in multiple games and you are 100% right on Dike and Sebietchu showing as useful, I would like to see a friendly or two of Dest and Robinson bouncing balls off their heads, because they will be able to do that almost at will I would think. Again though, we haven't seen any of that really, even when we were running with Zardes primarily The other crux of this is dead balls. We have got to be able to make teams pay for all of the fouling and CONCACAFing that is going to disrupt our guys and capitalize on those opportunities. This is another disappointment I have with the staff; who is handling our corners? Who is handling free kicks? Where are the effective training ground routines resulting in dangerous chances? We don't have answers for key roles that have long been an issue on this team and we frankly look as liable to be scored on as to score ourselves from dead balls (Jamaica's goal came from our poor corner). If we find a legitimate threat from direct FK's around the box and are anywhere near as potent as we used to be from corners, we instantly become more dangerous in attack. I think the coaching staff and the 14 month delay have a lot to do with all of this. Why did I have to watch players that obviously wouldn't be around in qualifying, or among the nailed on every day starters like Bradley, Trapp, Yueill and even Llegett most recently, standing over the dead balls? Why haven't we experimented with 2 striker formations and lobbing balls at target men like any of our other experiments, or a 4-2-3-1 for when Adams is unavailable, or why not players more defensively sound in lieu of Adams for literal years, instead of players nothing like him? There are more and better players at GGG's disposal than ever before and there has been more than enough time to work on whatever he thinks is most important for qualifying and choices have been made that inherently mean favoring one thing over another. The fields not being good enough, the refs not calling fouls, our euro guys not being prepared for shithousery and whatever else will not be excuses, those are all things we should be prepared for at this point.
Barring a significant injury or two (which, unfortunately, is an issue with some key players in this group), I don't see it happening. I actually think the style of play is right for this group now. The issues will be with proper rotation and making sure the right tactics against the right teams occur. The biggest thing with this cycle are the extra two teams. These will probably be famous last words, but there is ZERO excuse to not get 14-17 points against the three qualifying teams. Accomplish that, and the margin of error increases greatly.
its not even hypothetical- at lower levels against these same mexican players our u23 eligible players (pulisic and co) have handed el tri their ass on multiple occasions. the difference being our guys have gotten better, moved up and arent sitting in the same domestic league team 3 or 4 years later.
Target Forward: I don't think we had one in the pool until Siebatcheu decided to commit and Dike got better. Sargent's been improving as well, but 2019 Sargent was not a target. Jozy ain't. Zardes ain't. And so on. The pool in November of 2019 and the pool in March of 2021 are absurdly different, and in a good way. In terms of using a target, we actually used Siebatcheu a TON that way versus Northern Ireland. I wouldn't say it was massively effective, but he's new, Dike's new, we'll see. At least they can bang. Set Pieces: Sadly, the best set piece takers in the pool might be Ream, Bradley and Jozy on the shot. We do not have a lot of talent there. Pulisic has never been very good. Reyna has potential from a shot aspect, but I'm not sure his service is great (literally no idea). Either way, the improvement on that part won't happen in camp. A few of these guys needs to commit to working their ass off on it in their free time. Same with Penalties. Is Reyna our penalty taker? Sargent? Earlier on in Berhalter's time, we got a decent bunch of goals from the CBs up close, and we ran some pretty nice set piece plays. McKennie will help, and about half the CBs are decent at scoring. Our strikers are not, generally, and the rest of the team isn't going to help there. We've gone dry on set pieces, though some of the shorter CONCACAF teams may help (versus Jamaica, who were bringing some size). I think it's up to the staff here on selection and play design ... but in terms of service, a few guys need to commit to it. Attitude: McKennie's a fighter, but I don't think him backing up will be the key. The key is just persistence and fight by our attackers. I don't think they are mentally weak and I don't think lack the ability to fight back. But they are simply going to have to make a play while getting hacked and it's simply going to be a different kind of hard.
Canada or Haiti won't be a gimme. The A/F group is a shitshow and should be 6 easy point for everyone. Curacao's group could go either way, but we need to get six there. We need to get at least 15 points there. Eighteen should be the goal. But only about 9 are gimmes, IMO.
I said it in the Olympic thread, but I might as well say it here. With the talent at our disposal, I do expect to qualify comfortably as far as the points total is concerned, not even the USSF or Berhalter could screw this up (For all the faults of the USSF, it could be worse. They could be the FAI) What I don't expect of course is "full on, out for blood, curbstomp revenge/redemption" tour. I expect the qualifying will be similar to '06, '10, and '14. Some bumps in the road, some results that are WAY too close for comfort, but ultimately qualifying with 1-3 matches to spare. That being said, our 2018 qualifying campaign had one victory on the road. One. At St. Vincent and the Grenadines. I expect (or at least hope) that will be different this time around. By contrast, 2006 we won four road matches (Grenada, El Salvador, Panama, T&T) 2010 we won five road matches (Barbados, Guatemala, Cuba, T&T, Honduras) 2014 we won three road matches (Antigua & Barbuda, Jamaica in the Hex, and Panama after we had already qualified)
You guys are discussing precisely my biggest concern about the makeup of this team (well, that and an alternate plan if Adams is unavailable). I don't know if we have the grit. We've got everything else, including the ability to problem-solve. Aaronson in particular, I think, looks like a great problem solver. Our ability as a team to problem-solve has improved in every match we've played since November. We even managed it the other day in Belfast when the Irish were getting physical and staying organized defensively on the bumpy pitch. The Olympic team lacked both grit AND problem-solving. Ironically, the one who showed a modicum of both is Yueill. He's on my depth chart for sure...