I've heard clamoring that I do my monthly mock draw usually posted on the seeding thread. Due to my desire to keep the topics of mock draw and world cup seeding separate, I've created the "official" mock draw thread. This way the seeding thread will not be sullied by various and assundry mock draws. Here's October's mock draw based on pots used in the last 2 world cups. The seeded teams were decided using the formula in the seeding thread. Group A Germany Sweden Togo Saudi Arabia Group B England Poland Costa Rica Japan Group C Mexico Serbia and Montenegro Angola Ukraine Group D France Czech Republic Trinidad and Tobago Paraguay Group E Spain Croatia Tunisia Ecuador Group F Brazil Portugal Ivory Coast South Korea Group G Argentina Netherlands Ghana Iran Group H Italy Turkey USA Uruguay Feel free to discuss this or to do your own mock draw. I've also conducted another mock draw changing the make-up of the third pot to reflect relative strength. (This is because I believe FIFA will combine Asia with Concacaf this time). If anyone would like to see that just let me know. cheers
A somewhat different mock draft. The teams are divided into 4 pots using the FIFA seeding formula. When a team is picked, it can't be placed in a group with a team from the same confederation (UEFA teams can have one other UEFA team in the group) If higher ranked teams win the playoffs: Code: A B C D Germany Italy Argentina Mexico Korea Sweden USA Croatia Poland Tunisia Portugal Iran Togo Trinidad Ukraine Serbia and Montenegro E F G H Spain Brazil France England Japan Czech Holland Turkey Uruguay S Arabia Costa Rica Paraguay Angola Ghana Ecuador Côte d'Ivoire Drawing from pots A & B didn't require any adjustments. Portugal was the 2nd team picked from put C, but was placed in group C since group B already had two UEFA teams. Ukraine was the first team select from pot D, but was placed in group C due to the 2 teams UEFA limitation Serbia was the 3 team selected and was placed in group D since group B had two UEFA teams and group C 4th spot was already taken. Ecuador was the last team selected, but had to switch groups with Côte d'Ivoire since group H had a CONMEBOL team already. If the lower ranked teams win the playoffs: Code: A B C D Germany Mexico Holland Argentina Paraguay Croatia Korea Japan Swiss Ecuador Tunisia Norway Ghana Ukraine Côte d'Ivoire Australia E F G H Italy Brazil England France USA Portugal Sweden Saudi Arabia Iran Poland Costa Rica Serbia and Montenegro Slovakia Bahrain Togo Angola Again, no issues drawing from pots A & B. Iran was the 4th team selected from pot C, but had to be moved to group E since group D had an AFC team already. Bahrain was the 5th team selected from pot D, but had to be placed in group F since Iran was in group E already. Slovakia was the 7th team selected, but had to be placed in group E since groups G, H and F (in that order) had two UEFA teams already as a result Togo was moved to group G. This type of a system makes the Ukraine define the so called group of death both times. In the first draw, groups D & H are no cake walk either.
If really hope we are placed in the pot with the African teams, I do not fancy our chances against the Ivory Coast or Tunisia verses Japan or Saudi Arabia.
The problem with your draw is that you have a Euro seed (Spain in the first example, Holland in the second) in a group without any more Euros. That can't happen based on previous draws.
If FIFA decides to compare teams by FIFA ranking (beside the seeded teams), Concacaf and Asia are more comparable than with Africa. This is largely because the African teams are all newcomers. (To answer your question as to why I believe FIFA will change it this time.)
This is not to pick on you in particular, Sagy, but I think for this tournament (and future tournaments) we need a new definition of the phrase "Group of Death". It has always been my belief that the term "Group of Death" should be applied when 3 or 4 teams that you expected to make the Round of 16 (or perhaps even the QFs) prior to the draw are then grouped together. It has never meant "a tough group where teams are all about equal in ability". Such groups have usually been referred to as "tough groups". The more vaunted "Group of Death" title has instead been reserved for groups like 2002 Argentina England Sweden Nigeria 1998 Spain Nigeria Paraguay Bulgaria 1994 Italy Ireland Mexico Norway 1990 England Netherlands Ireland Egypt Prior to each of those draws, 15 out of 16 of those teams (with the exception of Egypt, which overperformed) would have been expected to make the Round of 16 for their individual tournaments, with the additional possible exception of 1998 Bulgaria, but you really can't discount a reigning semifinalist. Those are true "Groups of Death". We might have to come to the realization that--short of two strong European teams being grouped with Brazil or Argentina, or the US and/or Paraguay being grouped with a tough European side and an additional seed--there might not be a Group of Death. For one, there are about 25-27 teams that, going into this tournament, have what most would describe as realistic expectations of making the second round. Parity has increased. How do you differentiate between Ukraine's chances and Ivory Coast's? It's nearly impossible. Some would argue Ukraine is a darkhorse European power while Ivory Coast is just happy to be there. Others would say that Ukraine had a lucky qualifying run and that Ivory Coast has emerged as one of the more dangerous African sides ever. Neither analysis can be deemed right or wrong. For a group of death to occur in this World Cup, I think you need to have 3 clearly legitimate quarterfinal contenders to be grouped together. And I say "clearly legitimate" for a reason. Might Ghana make the quarterfinals? Of course. But do they go into the tournament as a serious threat to do so? No. Remember, the Group of Death, prior to the tournament, is all about what's on paper. Come August 06, we'll be looking back with hindsight about how amazingly difficult Group X was and how we all should have seen it coming. Until then, we can only go with the known. In Eldiabolito's and Sagy's mock draws, the only groups that I see that might qualify as "Group of Death" are Eldiabolito's Group D and Sagy's first Group C. In the first, France, Czech Republic and Paraguay all could be considered quarterfinal candidates, though T&T's relative weakness brings down the groups quality. In the second, most view Argentina, Portugal and the US as legitimate quarterfinal candidates and Ukraine as a very tough team, that could do anything from bomb out to make a semifinal run. That being said, Eldiabolito's Group H, Sagy's first Groups D, E and F and his second Groups A and H are no picnics, as the parity is high within them.
- I think Group G is the closest here to the GoD. Or Group D. -Several of the other groups are just plain intriguing. Like Group F and Ivory Coast. Or Groups C with Mexico, Serbia, and Ukraine. And Group H too which might be GoD, part three.
This draw looks quite fair. Group A the clear weakling, but throw the hosts a bone. Group B I'd say is the 2nd weakest. The other 6 are blood baths.
You are 100% correct. If this is an important criterion, it can easily be incorporated. Add a rule that UEFA teams from pot D must be placed in a group with a UEFA seed (unless the group has 2 UEFA already). Next time I'll add this rule.
I think the way this rule is actually met in practice is as follows: 1) the 8 seeds are assigned 2) the 9 remaining UEFA teams are in Pot B 3) the first 8 teams pulled from Pot B are assigned to groups A-H 4) the "leftover" UEFA team is then included in the Pot (C or D) that only has 7 teams* *that leftover team can ONLY be assigned to a group headed by Mexico, Brazil, or Argentina.
Correct, BUT it isn't put into full CONCACAF/CAF or AFC/CONMEBOL pot because that wouldn't be fair, right? Each of those teams should have exactly a 1/3 chance of getting an extra Euro team in their group. The only way that happens is if the three names of Mexico, Brazil and Argentina are put into a bag and one is drawn. The full pot "slide down" method doesn't work fairly because Brazil has already been assigned to group A, meaning if it's not a "direct hit", it won't get the Euro team. In other words, if.. Group A Brazil Group G Mexico Group H Argentina Then Mexico has a 75% chance of getting the Euro team if it's just thrown into the pot, drawn, and slides down to the next available slot.
You are correct under the current system. The system I introduced was one in which the Pots are split using the seeding formula not geographically. As Ombak pointed out, this can (and actually did) produce a group in which the only UEFA team is from Pot A. BTW, you are also correct about my liberal use of "Group of Death", your categorization of a "tough group" is more appropriate. I also like how you defined "Group of Death".
Germany has already been assigned A1. Germany will play their group matches in the three biggest stadia - Munchen, Dortmund, and Berlin. There has been no announcements, but some speculation on the other assignments.
Mock Draw take 2 Seeded teams Germany Brazil Spain Mexico Argentina Italy England France _________________ Non-seeded teams 2 NED 3 CZE 7 USA 9 POR ]11 TUR 13 SWE 16 JPN 17 URU 19 CRO 20 CRC 22 IRN 25 POL 27 TUN 29 KOR 31 KSA 33 PAR 36 ECU 39 UKR 42 SCG 48 CIV 50 TOG 51 GHA 53 TRI 60 ANG Seeing the above, I can imagine FIFA putting Concacaf with Asia and South America with Africa. With that presumed, here is a modified draw with the ironic attempt of coming up with more "balanced" groups. Group A Germany Turkey Trinidad and Tobago Paraguay Group B Mexico Sweden South Korea Ecuador Group C England Portugal USA Uruguay Group D France Poland Japan Angola Group E Argentina Netherlands Croatia Tunisia Group F Brazil Ukraine Iran Ivory Coast Group G Italy Czech Republic Costa Rica Togo Group H Spain Serbia and Montenegro Saudi Arabia Ghana
Re: Mock Draw take 2 Ironic indeed--these groups actually seem much more unbalanced than the first draw. Groups D, F, and H all look relatively easy. Groups C and E share the Group of Death label. I'd like to see Germany-Turkey, given all of the Turks who live in Germany--that would be a nice matchup.
I also made a mock draw myself. I didn't group more confederations together, but just draw the confederations one after each other, so teams from each confederation could be drawn to teams from all other confederations. I assumed Spain, Turkey, Czech Rep, Uruguay and Trinidad will win the play-off's: First I drew the seeded teams (Germany is standard in group A). I drew one team and then drew a group that still had no seeded team so far: 1.Argentina in H 2.Mexico in E 3.Brazil in D 4.Spain in G 5.Italy in F 6.France in B 7.England in C Then I drew the remaining 9 European teams. First a team and then a group that was still available (maximum 2, minimum 1 European team): 1.Poland in C (so C not available any more to another team) 2.Serbia Montenegro in H 3.Turkey in F (so F not available any more to another team) 4.Czech Rep. In G (so G not available any more to another team) 5.Portugal in D 6.Croatia in A (so A not available any more to another team) 7.Sweden in H (so H not available any more to another team) 8.Netherlands in B (so B not available any more to another team) 9.Ukraine in E (D was also available, but in E there was no European team yet) Then I drew the remaining 3 South American teams. First a team and then a group that was still available: Groups D and H not available because there is already a South American team 1.Ecuador in B 2.Uruguay in G 3.Paraguay in C Then I drew the remaining 3 CONCACAF teams. First a team and then a group that was still available: Group E not available because there is already a CONCACAF team 1.Costa Rica in B (so group B is full) 2.Trinidad & Tobago in G (so group G is full) 3.United States in D Then I drew the 5 African teams. First a team and then a group that was still available: Groups B and G not available because they are already full 1.Ivory Coast in H (so group H is full) 2.Ghana in F 3.Togo in A 4.Angola in E 5.Tunesia in C (so group C is full) Finally I drew the 4 Asian teams. First a team and then a group that was still available: Groups B, C, G and H not available because they are already full 1.Iran in E 2.Saudi Arabia in A 3.Japan in D 4.South Korea in F So that resulted in these groups: A Germany Croatia Togo Saudi Arabia B France Netherlands Ecuador Costa Rica C England Poland Paraguay Tunesia D Brazil Portugal United States Japan E Mexico Ukraine Angola Iran F Italy Turkey Ghana South Korea G Spain Czech Rep. Uruguay Trinidad & Tobago H Argentina Serbia Montenegro Sweden Ivory Coast
Working my pots out like this: Seeds Europe Concacaf\Asia S.America\Africa\Oceania Group A: Germany, Poland, United States, Togo Group B: England, Paraguay, Ukraine, Trinidad\Tobago Group C: Argentina, Australia, Japan, Serbia Group D: Mexico, Ivory Coast, Turkey, Sweden Group E: Italy, Tunisia, Croatia, Saudi Arabia Group F: Brazil, Angola, Costa Rica, Portugal Group G: France, Iran, Netherlands, Ecuador Group H: Spain, Ghana, South Korea, Czech Rep How I'd laugh if Group F actually turned out like that. Don't bet against it!
Here's my mock, using the draw format based on the previous 2 WCs. The order of the teams represents which slot in the group they received--ex rd.1 1vs2, 3vs4; rd. 2 1vs3, 2vs4; rd. 3 1vs4, 2vs3 (not which pots they were in). I am hypothetically including: Czech Rep, Turkey, Spain, Trinidad, and Uruguay as qualifiers. A: Germany, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Holland Yay! Our tournament opener is a rematch of that ugly 8-0 drubbing that took place in Sapporo! This group is about as uninteresting as they get--since in all likelyhood Germany and Holland will have wrapped up berths to the 16 by the time they meet in fixture 3. B: Mexico, Togo, Ukraine, Paraguay C: Argentina, Czech Republic, Korea Republic, Cote D'Ivoire I've got Group C pegged as the Group of Death. If not, then it will be a very entertaining group. D: France, Ecuador, Croatia, Costa Rica E: England, Uruguay, Angola, Sweden The 2 survivors from last WC's group of death F: Brazil, Poland, United States, Portugal 3 of the 4 teams in Group D of the last WC. US has to meet Portugal and Brazil in its first 2 games G: Spain, Japan, Ghana, Serbia-Montenegro The Ghana-Serbia match has an interesting sub-plot as Ghana's manager is himself Serbian. H: Italy, Iran, Turkey, Trinidad-Tobago Poor T&T.
You do realize that 10 teams are battling for five remaining world cup slots. Uruguay/Australia Trinidad&Tobago/Bahrain Czech Republic/Norway Spain/Slovakia Turkey/Switzerland There is no way to conduct a mock draw unless you assume winners in these match-ups.
Well in the two UEFA playoffs that don't include Spain who would be seeded, the two teams are in the same confederation and should be identical as far as the World Cup draw process is concerned (I'm not saying the teams are equally good). Therfore if you wanted to you could put something like Turkey/Switzerland winner in your draw. Forza AZ's Group D with the United States has all four teams in the Top 16 in the FIFA rankings with the three non-UEFA teams all arguably the best team in their confederation.
Are you 100% SURE about this? Either way, though, the point still stands. Even if Brazil is in "F" and Mexico and Argentina get "G" and "H", then Brazil has a 75% chance of getting a second Euro team in its group if the "slide-down" method is adopted. Meaning it's still an unfair way to do things. Help me with something, though--Germany getting "A" means it plays the opening match. I thought the winner of the last World Cup always played the opening match. ????? That's why I thought Germany was F1, shown to be playing in Berlin, Munich and Dortmund.