Are you there BS Gods? It's me, carlos. I pray that in this fourth edition of this thread, that ppl will pull their f'ing heads out of their frickin ARSES and realize what the F' is a STATISTICAL mo'fo' TIE!! Gently yours, carlos of the ucla kind
Don't you go to Berkeley? I don't think anyone disagrees that this is basicly a tie. They just like to spin the numbers and try to make the trends work for their candidate. Wishful thinking of sorts.
Zogby has it 47-47, Oct 26-28. That's really bad news for Bush, substantially worse than 49-49. Suddenly, the trip to Hawaii makes sense. You normally wouldn't take out your 2nd best campaigner for a full day (flight to and from). You go to Hawaii if you're trying to draw to an inside straight.
That's what John Z. was saying last night. It was interesting, but his main point was that for an incumbent to be polling less than 50% this close to the election is almost a death knell.
What was really interesting is that he said if the election was held todayand the choices were Bush or Not Bush, Not Bush would walk away with it and win by a greater margin then Kerry.
That's exactly what he has been saying for weeks now. It all comes down to the last poll and if Bush can be over the 50/50 mark. If not...
Either they're very sure, or very very desperate. The time Cheney wasted on the plane could have been spent in heaven knows how many stops between Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. If Hawaii goes red, I guess it'll be worth it...provided, like, every other swing state also goes red. Otherwise, that's a pretty stupid trade of time and resources. It's a good thing Karl Rove is a genius, because what with him tanking the debates and releasing a series of misguided ads in the one weekend you want to be mistake-free, I'd be tempted to think he was in trouble.
http://slate.msn.com/id/2108751/ Slate is now giving Wisconsin (10) to Kerry, tipping the EC scale in favor of Kerry, 272-266. Kerry is in danger of losing Minnesota, however.
From emergingdemocraticmajority.org. 1. It's really strange that the trendlines are so contradictory. Sure, Gallup has a pro-GOP model, and Zogby has a pro-Dem model, but you figure they'd get the trends the same. 2. Ian's weekend hypothesis is looking bad. The numbers from Tuesday (lots of weekend) and Friday (no weekend) show nothing to support it.
Every day we can't post pictures here is a day the terrorists win "You're forgetting something, son."
Re: Every day we can't post pictures here is a day the terrorists win Jesus, it's like the conservatives around here are downright retarded the last few days.
Re: Every day we can't post pictures here is a day the terrorists win Dave, please... What's retarded is the Dems believing Zogby walks on water. National polls Fox News Channel: Bush 50-45% ABC: Bush 50-47% Zogby: 47-47% All pre-bin Laden tape, of course. Local polls Florida (Zogby): Kerry 47-45% Iowa: (Zogby) Bush 45-44% Minnesota: (Univ. of Minn.) Bush 47-44% Arkansas: (Survey USA) Bush 51-45% Wisconsin: (Univ. of Wis.) Bush 48-45% Michigan: (Zogby) Bush 48-46% Ohio: (Zogby) Bush 46-45% Pennsylvania: (Zogby) 47-44% If Bush holds all his 2000 states, he wins with 278. If he loses Ohio, he goes down to 258, 12 away from victory. Wins in Pennsylvania or Michigan give it to him. Combinations of two from Iowa, Wisconsin or Minnesota give it to him. Kerry, if he goes down in Florida, needs to practically run the table. John Zogby may feel worse than the New York Yankees on the day after the election.
Wait to "super" dave see's the exit polls then we will all need umbrellas when he starts to cry because Bush will be reelected.
Newsweek poll just out, Bush leading 50-44. I take no comfort from the polls. I always add 3pts to the Democrats anyway, to account for their fraud machine. Unless all the polls shift dramatically to +10 for Bush before Tuesday, I'm not counting any chickens and would not be surprised at any outcome.
Bush has finally gotten that magic "50" number back, with the newest UBL tape just coming out, I've got to think that's the last nail in the coffin for JFK.