Finally getting a clear idea again what WCQ'ing is going to look like. We know four of our opponents and we know if isn't starting for 11 months. The delay should just make the USMNT better. If you just think it through, by June 2021, Chris Richards could be finishing an entire season in the Bundesliga for Union Berlin. Looking over the Costa Rican team, who everyone would think is the second or third best team historically, it doesn't look pretty for them. Duarte is still in La Liga, but a bench player whose is on the downslope of the career and nearing the bottom. Waston and Calvo are in MLS and old and ok, Oviedo is in Copenhagen, is 30, and doesn't play much. Joel Campbell is still in his prime and is in Liga MX with Leon but not tearing it up. Bunch of guys in the Costa Rica league. The team that played us in January is really not far from their best. There will probably be fans and at Costa Rica is always the toughest, but I can't see them beating us at home again or taking a lot of points of other teams. Honduras will probably be a bigger obstacle. Their U23 team 4 years ago was very good and many of those players are in their prime. They all seem to be in Houston with Tab and Quioto and Ellis are good by MLS standards. Lozano is in the Spanish Secunda. Acosta is with FCD and another good MLS player. Bunch of guys in CR and Honduran league. Take a look at Jamaica tomorrow. But on paper, there is really no reason to fear these Central American teams.
Quioto is in Montreal now but the point stands. I think the depth of the Ocho will be it’s strength. Canada or Haiti, Curacao, etc, could all be better than the usual 6th team, even going to 8. And if we continue to struggle on the road, it could be an issue. The road is always the hard part. Hell, Canada could be the third best team, and suddenly Costa Rica, not impressive as a #3, might be a pretty good four or five.
As long as Gregg is our coach I’m going to have concerns. To this point he hasn’t done anything to give me confidence in his ability to lead this team. Yes on paper we have more talent but the game isn’t played on paper.
You start with the USMNT and Mexico. Jamaica should be favored as the third team. They have a handful of big league players, some high-end Championship guys, and their MLS vets have been among the best at their positions in the league. And unlike certain northerly competitors, they've played up to their pedigree in recent Gold Cups. But their reasons Canada has a world superstar, a promising young top-level goal scorer, some EPL journeymen, and two players who were top 10 in MLS WhoScored in recent years. Their reputation for being top-heavy isn't quite right - they have a cadre of MLSers that would be envied by other regional teams. Their reputation for weak defense and not playing up to their club pedigree has the ring of truth, however. The OP did a nice job of summing up CR. Hard to say what to expect. They'll probably be a little like the 2017 USMNT, take points based on turn-back-the-clock moments, but failing to qualify. Honduras .... I can't say. Quioto is playing the best he's played in a while. And Elis is outstanding. Douglas Martinez and Bryan Rochez .... they should have firepower. So much of their team is domestic or at weird clubs. it's hard to say. Haiti played well at GC, but lack club pedigree. Curacao are interesting. El Salvador has been top 6 and you have to respect that. Panama are kind of forgotten rn, but always have guys playing in obscure but quality leagues.
Or have gotten minutes while being eased into the first team at Bayern. In addition to Richards, we've got so many guys knocking on the door. Where will ARob, Ledezma, Uly, Weah, Sarge, Gio, Paxton, Konrad etc...all be in 11 months? The team could look significantly different come qualifying relative to how it would if it were to start in the Fall. Too bad Gregg will be the same Gregg.
Funny, if you are looking at the current teams, an easy resource is the latest Gold Cup rosters. Looking at the players Gregg picked, it is not that impressive a list. An large number of MLS players and five guys from Europe, only two of them from a top 4 league. I know DHC has been discussing this for the whole year, but it is pretty startling to see a 18 MLS/5 Euro roster. Now, two Euro guys were hurt and Steffan transfered right after. But I would think the roster now should be closer to18 Euro/5 MLS . Curacao actually has the most impressive GC roster on paper. I say, "on paper" in the idea you look at the names and clubs. Almost all of them play in good Euro leagues. I believe if you drill deeper, most are bench players and reserve players though.
Jamaica has Bailey and a bunch of USL players. They beat us at home last June, which will help their confidence. They lost to us in the GC, but the game was close and Pulisic the difference. If you look at the starting 11 for the USMNT in that Gold Cup game, I can think of 4 instant upgrades (Brooks, Dest, Robinson, Adams) to the starting lineup and the subs (Roldan, Lovitz) were a joke. All these teams seem to have a great player or two, or a handful of good players. There are quite a few MLS players throughout the Ocho Cinco. If Gregg is done with whatever 2019 was, then we should really only be playing superior MLS players with players beyond MLS. It would take an active coaching sabotage (like Jamaica in June and Mexico in September and Canada in October) to not qualify. Some of 2017 was that we had a coach leaning on highly paid MLS players that were not the best MLS players. Gregg gave major minutes to replacement level MLS players in 2019, if he can get over these guys and bring in better talents, then qualifying should be a cake walk.
The flip side to the 9 month delay that gives our young talent another season to season, is that Mexico gets another year older. Most of their European stars are past prime and will only be getting older. Many of their older players are in MLS now. Most of their young players are in Liga MX, I don't know how good they are. The delay is probably not helpful for them at all. Looking through the rosters for the Gold Cup and recent squads, it is interesting that MLS is definitely where most CONCACAF players are and Liga MX is not.
There are some USL players, but I think Ghost is closer to the truth here. This was Jamaica's starting lineup at the Gold Cup against us, with the following exceptions. In bold are players who weren't available in that game, but have subsequently started Nations League games for Jamaica. GK: Blake - Philadelphia (MLS) (Former MLS Goalkeeper of the Year) RB: Powell - Inter Miami (MLS) (Former MLS Cup Winner) CB: Mariappa - Watford (EPL) CB: Hector - Fulham (EFL Championship) LB: Lawrence - Anderlecht (Belgium) (Former MLS Best XI) MF: Flemmings - Phoenix Rising (USL) MF: Williams - Louisville (USL) MF: Watson - OKC Energy (USL) MF: Bailey - Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga) FW: Reid - Fulham (EFL Championship) FW: Mattocks - Cincinnati (MLS) First Sub: Nicholson - Charleroi (Belgium) That seems comparable to Canada's best XI to me, and like Ghost said, unlike Canada they seem to perform up to their talent.
It'll be 2 years since the 2019 Gold Cup once qualifying starts. The Gold Cup rosters are pretty moot at that point. Brooks, Adams and Yedlin were all injured during the Gold Cup. Since the Gold Cup, Josh Sargent has solidified a place on the team, Sergino Dest and Giovanni Reyna have broken out, Zack Steffen was already sold to Europe (but for some reason was not included in the five). That's seven more European-based players that are almost certain to be on a WCQ roster if healthy, before we even start discussing players like Antonee Robinson, Uly Llanez (who has a cap now), etc. And if we're not weirdly obsessed with Europe as some vague thing to aspire to, we've also had players like Pomykal and Aaronson start to break out in MLS and could very well be on the roster in June. Or maybe they will be blessed, along with someone like Reggie Cannon, with the sacred hand of Europe by then as well. Our young talent, in MLS and abroad, is growing up, and the more time we get for them to break out, the better. I doubt we're going to see many 18/5 rosters in favor of Europe, though, simply because if you factor in injuries, the European player pool doesn't have the depth to fill in when our best 23 has 5-6 people unavailable. That's what happened in the Gold Cup -- heck, Tyler Adams and Duane Holmes actually made the *final* roster and neither ended up playing -- and you are going to fill in the cracks with someone who doesn't have to fly halfway around the world in a lingering pandemic to not play. A novel idea, to actually look at the players instead of just assuming things based on league. Are you sure you belong here? Curacao looked good. I would not be surprised to see them in the hex and a tough out. I also would not be shocked to see Canada lose to Haiti and not make the Ocho, after all this maneuvering. They are high on young talent but untested and seem a bit low on the grit factor. Much like the US.
Some of Mexico gets older, but they do have some younger talent. They overrate some of it, especially relative to some of ours, but they aren't completely empty of good, young players. We improve more, but I don't think Mexico is in Costa Rica's situation. Costa Rica still has Navas, though, and that makes them dangerous.
If we fail to qualify, Berhalter should never coach anywhere again. We have the following players that should be sure thing starters under any coach: Pulisic, Adams, McKennie, Dest, Brooks, Steffan, Reyna That's 7 of 11 or 64% of the lineup being legit players in top leagues getting regular minutes. Add in guys like Jordan Morris, one of Altidore/Sargent up top or a healthy Tim Weah and you're at over 80% of this team being some of the best talent we've had in a while. Fill in the remaining 2-3 guys with whoever you want and we are still easily one of the top teams in this region in talent and outside Mexico no other team has any legit argument they are better in terms of personnel. Just get the obvious ones on the field and we should easily qualify. Anything less is a colossal screw up.
Just a bit more to show just how good our relative talent is this time around: Pulisic - one of the best attackers on a top 10 in the world team, more successful than any single player in our history at club level and is still only 22 and getting better. Arguably the best player in CONCACAF and it's not a hard argument to make. Adams - Injuries stalled him a bit but when healthy starts more often than not on a Champions League team. Puts him in company with fewer players than I can count on one hand in US history. McKennie - Multi-year starter on mid-table club in a top league. Again, we've had maybe half a dozen guys have his kind of career at their peak and he's still only 21. Past stars like Dempsey or McBride topped out at their absolute peak playing regularly for mid table sides. Dest - Starter on Ajax and discussed as a possibility for every other mega club in the world, an absolute steal and we're lucky to have him. Last guy we had who played serious time for Ajax was John O'Brien, talked about by many as one of our best ever. Dest is better and healthier. Brooks - Long career at a couple mid table Bundesliga sides, which puts him above most of our talent in the past. He's also one of our few experienced players with a World Cup already under his belt. His last transfer set a record for US players at the time. Steffan - Probably the weakest part of this argument, but he's still going to be joining a very big club who could always buy another option for backing up their starter and still the envy of most CONCACAF teams not named Costa Rica or Mexico. Reyna - Son of a legend and well on his way to becoming a key player himself. One of our top all-time prospects who is already getting game time at BVB and will have a full season of play under his belt by the time El Ocho rolls around.. After that, there is plenty of other talent that most teams in our region would kill for. Guys like Morris, Weah, Altidore, Sargent and others would absolutely walk into starting positions for most teams in the region. guys like Aaronson and more are showing well in MLS. If this team doesn't qualify it will not be due to a lack of players. Our biggest weaknesses are in defense and that's really more likely to bite us in the ass against better teams than we will face throughout most of qualifying since we should be able to carry the game with most CONCACAF teams. And frankly, even trying to use personnel as an excuse at this point would be pathetic. We are at worst #2 in talent in CONCACAF. If we fail to qualify it will not be due to a lack of good enough players.
No argument there. I will say however that if we expect to get through"the Ocho" comfortably, we have to get better at picking up away wins. We generally expect to win one, maybe 2, but never more, away games in every Hex, and we generally expect to lose to Costa Rica away, as we always have. I've always been a little frustrated at how little we expect to get out of those games (and I understand all the challenges that come with them), but putting that aside, this format will likely add two more winnable away games to the schedule, and I'd rather not see us adopt the same "happy with a draw" attitude that we've always seemed to carry through most of the Hex.
Yes, I'm hoping the young kids just don't know enough to get psyched out in central america. Maybe if nobody tells then a draw is good enough, they might win... If we look at the lineup at the end of 2017 compared to what we can field now, not even counting on continued development over the next 9 months: Pulisic 2020 > Pulisic 2017 Altidore 2020 < Altidore 2017 Morris 2020 > Arriola 2017 (on the wing by far) Adams > Bradley McKennie > Nagbe Reyna > Wood Brooks > Besler Long/Miazga > Omar Robinson/Ream > Villafana Dest > Yedlin Steffan > Howard Gregg > Bruce ???
That's an illuminating side-by-side. This might be the first cycle since the '98-'02 transition where I'm convinced that we're better at every single position on the field compared to the prior cycle. (2017 Altidore on paper should have been better than Altidore or Sargent today, but in practice I'm not sure that was the case.) Edit: actually, even back then, Regis declined a lot after the '98 tournament, and we were scrambling to plug that hole at LB.
I'd quarrel with McK>Nagbe but it would not be much fun and Brooks>Besler is pretty dubious. Otherwise I'd say the problem we have is that the team on paper gives a false sense of confidence. Steffen is probably at ManCity to rest his physical situation (instead of on loan), Brooks has bad games, McK doesnt know how to play and doesnt have a position. All you have to do is imagine Pulisic and Adams out for some knock (which they were) and there's not much of a team. Could that happen over the year or so we play the Ocho? Of course. i.o.w., what's the rest of the story? We will not have our dream team on the pitch in Qatar if they don't qualify. Who can we count on when a Couva situation reappears?
Yep. It's a strong reason for confidence, and worth noting that last year Brooks, Dest, Reyna and Adams played in 6 total USMNT games across the four of them. In fact, if you take all the minutes the SEVEN players you mentioned played, and place them over the 16 non-cupcake games we played ... It's just over 2 players worth of minutes. I know it's an unreasonable expectation for someone to play every minute of every game, but when we make these lists, it is basically like choosing just TWO of the above for any one game. The talent level is way up from 2017. That said, if I were to be negative: Injuries are real Brooks was pretty terrible in 2017 qualifying even when healthy and has a tendency to big mistakes Steffen is better than 2017 Howard but hardly an elite goalkeeper We're not really sure how good Reyna is ... and to some extent Dest The team is talented but seems a bit soft. Then again, I'd argue that we still have a YEAR and most of these guys will improve, as well as a chance for a few more youngsters to emerge. The talent is young, and the so-called lost generation will still be felt somewhat in this cycle, but not nearly as much since the players in the young 20s are really, really good.
We were decimated by injuries over the last year or more and that's certainly affected how this team has evolved and how we look at the team as fans. It's probably the most dramatic injury run I've ever seen a US team deal with and it certainly could happen again. But, our player pool issues need to be taken in context. Mexico has great depth, but no one else in CONCACAF has much depth to speak of, including the US. Fortunately, most CONCACAF teams are filled with average-to-good MLS players and guys from the Central American leagues. There is no scenario where we play anyone outside of Mexico where our opponent will have a dramatic talent gap over us even if we are missing a couple top players. All I am pointing out is the excuse of not having enough good players is very difficult to buy. Frankly, last cycle in a very down cycle talent wise, we had plenty of players to qualify from this region. It gets old people talking about how it's so tough to qualify with this player pool. Our player pool looks deficient if you start comparing the US to the top teams in Europe and South America. But in CONCACF, the player pool should never be an excuse.
I think McKennie really grew as he was moved back in the formation. He was clearly the best player on his team and the team will either sell him for $25 MM or make him captain. In a Couva situation, I'd expect McKennie to die on the pitch rather than dribble aimlessly and not close anyone down in midfield... In fact, the failure to qualify is a gigantic X factor for all these players. Pulisic talks about it. Adams talks about it. I'd expect a take no prisoners approach to every game. The only thing that can hold them back is Gregg really. Injuries will be an issue, but they will be less this time as we have pretty strong depth now. Some of it is young, but many of those young players will get PT before June 2021. More are coming. Llanez could be have 1000' Bundesliga minutes under his belt and 4-6 caps by the time he needs to sub in for Pulisic or Morris. Weah could get healthy. I think Adams was good this Summer, but with a real run of games will get back to his Winter 2019 form, and probably surpass it. Richards, Aaronson, Cannon, could all be in Top 4 leagues. Someone from the Miazga, EPB, CCV cohort will probably get there too. This delay is going to make us unstoppable.
Brooks was terrible in 2016 qualifying but very good in 2017. Just was hurt most of the time, especially down the stretch. I think the USA might be better able to handle an injury better than any of the other teams. Neither Reyna or Dest are critical, there are options. But if they are as good as they can be, nobody can match the talent we are putting out. We might be soft, it has been a feature of the Bradley as 6 years. It was true under Sarachan with MB jr. I don't think Yuiell, Adams, McKennie, Pomykal, Holmes, Morales are soft. The backline in 2017 was soft because Omar plays scared and terrible and Zusi and Villafana were liabilities. Our backline is maybe more finesse now, maybe it could use Miazga over Long or Richards if he comes good, but I don't worry about it as much because Adams/McKennie will be in front on them. But we will see. Oh, and I think if someone hacks Pulisic they will pay in 2021, unlike 2017 when Bradley just looked towards the horizon with a look of constipation...
I always wonder if Bradley was burned by missing the Confed Cup final and getting suspended 2 more games on top.
I agree. Even in 2017, the player pool wasn't a defining limitation. It certainly lowered the margin of error to a level where could possibly not qualify, but that group of players still should be expected to qualify. Bad execution and bad coaching and a bit of bad luck brought it all home. We lost to teams with a significant portion of their player pool in our home league. That shouldn't happen.
I am very optimistic about our overall chances, but I can't get on the depth train at all. We're thin at GK, and the only thing I can see reasonably changing is a mediocre shot at Horvath getting a job back. That's more than offset by Steffen's potential lack of play and possible injury. At left back, we don't even have a set starter yet, much less a backup. I do not want to count on a breakout by any of our young prospects at centerback. I'm not giving up on anyone, but the crew of 23 year olds are far from certain things and Richards is young. Brooks gets hurt a lot, Long already seems to be fading, and Ream is old. I am more hopefuly in midfield and attackers overall, but we don't have a strong defensive midfield bench or at striker. It's primarily the defense that is a sludge of mediocrity with a couple of bright spots. And young defenses definitely don't tend to be reliable (though our old players are also unreliable). When I say we lack toughness or bite, it's on that side of the ball that I am looking at. Adams is the only guy I see that goes out and just owns a portion of the pitch. Our defenders are soft, our midfield sans Adams is pretty soft. There are times when McKennie beasts ... and times when he gets taken out of the game. In order to have real depth or a strong defense, we need a decent amount to go right in a year. Still should qualify. But I can't get behind depth; it's not there.