The New Year, new Random Thoughts Thread

Discussion in 'Liverpool' started by el-capitano, Jan 13, 2021.

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  1. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    [apologies for repeating what others have said]

    at this point it seems that Delta is not yet as lethal as "regular" Covid. hopefully that continues.
    but it is sending a lot more young people to hospital.

    two things:
    - as it continues to spread (faster than regular) the chances of it mutating into something worse increase
    and
    - it will start to (again) overwhelm health care resources. how much can those people be expected to endure/deal with?
     
  2. newterp

    newterp Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 6, 2007
    North Potomac, MD
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Great summary hubba
     
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  3. hubbabubba

    hubbabubba Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 17, 2002
    Ann Arbor, MI
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think it is probably better to say that at this point there is no evidence that Delta is more lethal than "regular" COVID. The reason the number of fatalities has gone down is that 1) we've gotten a lot better at treating the COVID symptoms in severely affected patients, and 2) that, at least in North America and Europe, the numbers of cases we are currently seeing are not straining hospital capacity in most places.

    This said, research has indicated that people infected with the delta variant have much higher viral loads than those with the original virus (some non-peer-reviewed studies are reporting >1000-fold higher viral counts in the upper respiratory tracts). That number is a bit shocking but it isn't necessarily a super scary increase, since it isn't clear whether this really leads to that much more viral infection in the patient... but it is worrisome. For sure, higher viral counts are likely associated with the increased transmissibility of the delta variant.

    The thing that should worry us though, is that generally speaking if the delta variant is more likely to send you to the hospital than the original virus, then if not treated appropriately it is probably more likely to be lethal. In pandemics, a lot of people die because of lack of access to appropriate health care. And the increased transmissibility and increased likelihood of hospitalization means that the delta variant could do a lot more damage if it gets out of control.

    EDIT: which now that I finished reading your post, you kind of said above... LOL should finish reading before responding...
     
  4. Wingtips1

    Wingtips1 Member+

    May 3, 2004
    02116
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    I think you just made the case for lockdowns being the wrong policy!!
    And you should be including those with natural immunity when looking at herd rates. I'm still carrying my antibodies 15 months on and will not be getting a vaccine.

    The Indian data suggests that it still remains extremely non-dangerous to those not old or living with pre-existing markets. Pneumonia killed more US citizens under 40 in 2019 than Covid did, so any uptick in the hospitalization/death rate in this category would have to be drastic for it to have any impact.
     
  5. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
  6. burning247

    burning247 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    England
    Sep 16, 2000
    Dallas
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    I know it's been discussed to death since I've last posted so I'll just echo what others have said. I'm not concerned about it, but I'm vaccinated and so is my wife. My stepson is 16 and had COVID last year but my wife wants to vaccinate him before he goes back to school. I have mixed feelings about children getting the vax but overall, I think the odds of anything bad happening to them are super low (but I also feel that way about if they got COVID). Our (almost) 2 year old would be my main concern but her pediatrician has said we have next to nothing to worry about.

    As far as the general population, I am concerned for those who haven't had the virus or the vaccine but they also made their choice. We've had vaccines in abundance here for months now. Hope the rest of the world gets the help they need soon.
     
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  7. burning247

    burning247 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    England
    Sep 16, 2000
    Dallas
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Definitely and for everyone even whispering about it in the USA again (for the future) don't know the wrath it would cause. Not to mention the economic harm.

    I don't even know how they're coping in Europe, where lockdowns have been much worse.

    Think it's also hilarious that LA County took the first opportunity to muzzle their residents indoors despite the CDC's stance on vaccinated individuals wearing masks.

    We really need to move this to the rando thread.
     
  8. newterp

    newterp Moderator
    Staff Member

    Jun 6, 2007
    North Potomac, MD
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    got my 14.5 yr twins vaccinated the first day they were able - basically it takes a huge weight off our shoulders, makes us feel comfortable about these summer camps, going back to school and going to the Caribbean in a few weeks - let along visiting grandparents (lung cancer and other old people illness).

    it also allows us to generally be good citizens and not worry that we are being the root cause of continued spread.

    I would recommend your stepson get it. there is no harm.
     
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  9. dcc134

    dcc134 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    May 15, 2000
    Hummelstown, PA
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Tips, I think you may be overrating your immunity from having Covid as data suggests its really the second shot (or first if you had Covid) that really supercharges your protection. That's why people hadn't had Covid have more symptoms after the second shot, and those who had Covid have those symptoms after the first.

    Part of the issue they had in the UK is because they decided to give more people 1 shot and delayed giving out the second, so the population isn't fully protected.
     
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  10. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    FYI we've been vaxxing 12-18yo in Canada for quite a while now. AFAIK there have been zero deaths or major illnesses resulting.
    (I think they use Pfizer exclusively for the 12-18's but not 100% sure on that point.)
     
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  11. burning247

    burning247 Member+

    Liverpool FC
    England
    Sep 16, 2000
    Dallas
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    England
    Good because he'll definitely be getting it. My wife has no reservations.
     
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  12. speker

    speker Member+

    May 16, 2009
    Canada
    Club:
    Liverpool FC

    My 12 yr old grandson has had his first dose of Pfizer and will be getting his second shot soon. He was super tired for a couple days afterwards but that's about it.
     
  13. hubbabubba

    hubbabubba Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 17, 2002
    Ann Arbor, MI
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    My two kids (12 and 15) are vaccinated and had little to no side effects. My son had a headache the day after, and my daughter slept for the whole day after getting their second shots. Am currently over in Germany, and for all the talk about lockdowns being much more strict in Europe, they really aren’t. Just as many people wandering around with masks down under their chins as we had in MI.

    BTW, there is a ton of difference between transmission in a population with ZERO resistance vs one with 30-50% resistance and available vaccines for when serious outbreaks occur and people suddenly decide they need to get protected. I’d also like to point out that environmental effects impacting transmission due to changing behavior is not at all an argument that lockdowns weren’t the only useful tool we had to restrict transmission last year. If we hadn’t we’d probably be looking at millions dead from COVID in the US instead of the still unacceptable 600,000+ we did have. But I guess for some people that number is okay as long as it fits their political views… sad.
     
  14. delaynomo

    delaynomo Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Agreed. But at the same time, the less variant factories there are the better. So get vaccinated people!
     
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  15. usscouse

    usscouse BigSoccer Supporter

    May 3, 2002
    Orygun coast
    #890 usscouse, Jul 23, 2021
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2021
    My daughter is off to India today from NZ. Yes she knows what is going on and has taken precautions.
    She was offered a job at the American Embassy School in New Delhi. Great reputation with good benefits and remuneration.
    The school is In a huge, almost a city to itself area, with the worlds (acceptable) embassies and schools there. she’ll be staying at the old Bulgaria schools apartments in nice garden surroundings.
    She’s visited India before and loved it so it won’t be strange to her.

    Her flight to get there is going to be horrendous. She’ll fly from Auckland to Dubai. That’s overflying India by about 5-6 hours. Stops there for 5 hours before flying back to New Delhi. Then the “check into India” for workers is like 4 hours.
    Going to be a long day.........
     
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  16. usscouse

    usscouse BigSoccer Supporter

    May 3, 2002
    Orygun coast
    Liverpool stripped of their world heritage status. Why?

    CB1490CA-D369-4D96-B779-8BB0B91A0FC3.jpeg
     
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  17. speker

    speker Member+

    May 16, 2009
    Canada
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    I'm surprised there's no diving board . :)
     
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  18. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    I'm surprised there is no swim-up bar.
     
  19. usscouse

    usscouse BigSoccer Supporter

    May 3, 2002
    Orygun coast
    I alone can fix this.

    oh sorry that’s the name of the book I’m reading. Quoting one of our glorious leaders claims.
     
  20. usscouse

    usscouse BigSoccer Supporter

    May 3, 2002
    Orygun coast
    Sounds like it’s you two who are in the pool.
     
  21. bayred

    bayred Member+

    Liverpool FC
    United States
    May 28, 2018
    Izzat the Everton Baths? A real landmark.
     
  22. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    I've just looked more closely. this is a worry. Rafa's already having an effect ..... that is Everton's new physio treatment centre.:eek:
     
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  23. Wingtips1

    Wingtips1 Member+

    May 3, 2004
    02116
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Fantastic race in the triathlon yesterday.
    Typically there is a breakaway group in the swim that then extends the lead on the bike and the best runner in the group will take the win.
    Yesterday there was just a stream of competitors coming out of the water one after the other and this led to a giant peloton on the bike. There were several attacks on the bike but none of the serious challengers made a big move there.
    But the Norwegian, Blumenfelt, ran a 29:30 10k to take gold. The Brit, Yee, came in 11 seconds later for silver, and the Kiwi Wilde came third.

    Best part of the day was half the field false-starting the swim. And Leslie Jones' commentary on Instagram - "these muthafu$kers got to swim bike AND run - isn't that the whole Olympics?" "It's kinda selfish to be this fu$king athletic."
     
  24. SamScouse

    SamScouse Member+

    Jun 1, 2015
    Toronto
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Tips - did you see the start of that event, where the boat basically blocked off half the guys trying to dive in? what a colossal eff-up that was, and could have been bloody dangerous.

    what are your thoughts on the winner's tactics?
     
  25. Wingtips1

    Wingtips1 Member+

    May 3, 2004
    02116
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Yep, what a cluster that was.
    The commentators were even worse than the media boat, unfortunately. So bad.

    As I mentioned, you typically will have a breakaway pack in the swim that creates a 10-30 second gap to the chase group. If you have the right bikers in that lead group, you can already have settled the podium by minute 20 of the event and that chase group is just there to finish out the event.

    Yesterday was very different. You had 20 guys come out of the water within 17 seconds of the leader, and everybody else just followed along in a long train of individuals. So the tactics that most races have went right out the window (chase pack working to catch main pack). You really only had a huge, singular pack on the bike, which is good as it made for exciting viewing, but it played directly into the hands of the strongest runners and not the strongest bikers.

    Blummenfelt played his hand perfectly and worked his way to the front over the course of the 40k bike. Once it was apparent he was having a good day on the run, it wasn't a question of who would win. He was one the top 3 pre-race favorites and he showed up and won.
     

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