So it's looking like Ethiopia might soon be invading Eritrea and Venezuela is threatening to invade Guyana. The TLDR description of the first is that Ethiopia's "prime minister" Abiy Ahmed wants to expand his imperial ambitions towards a Red Sea port in Eritrean land and this is politically expedient because Eritrea entered Abiy Ahmed's genocide against the Tigrey, and when the civil war turned quiet and then against the Ethiopian ethnic group most against the Tirgey, that included Eritrea. Eritrea is pissed because they sent hundreds of thousands of soldiers to commit crimes against humanity in a foreign land and all they got was this lousy t-shirt. The TLDR of the second is that a very long running border dispute between Venezuela and Guyana is now worth fighting over because a lot (I mean a lot) of oil was discovered off the coast of Guyana a few years ago. The first seems likely to happen, given the history of violence there. The second may just be distraction from internal Venezuelan problems. Venezuela's army is complete crap, but even even complete crap can walk over tiny Guyana. Their fight wouldn't be against any defenders, but the against the impenetrable rain forest this territory is made up of. So I'm making this thread partially to cover events in these conflicts as they occur (or don't occur) but also to discuss the world's turn against pluralism and towards war to solve problems (like Africa's Sahel region, and of course Ukraine).
It used to be, but hasn't been for decades. They are supported by Brasil, but they are unlikely to intervene directly.
Brazil is moving troops to the border with Venezuela. The reason this is important is that the impenetrable rain forest I mentioned before is really, really impenetrable. The only road into Guyana from Venezuela goes through Brazil. Otherwise there's just about nothing. The rivers are not fully navigable over the border. There's a sparse network of dirt roads between Guyanese mining camps that doesn't seem to reach the border which Bing occasionally loses and just says "route uncertain" and Google doesn't even attempt to map.
I don't think much will happen in Guyana. Brazil is the natural partner of Guyana to develop the reserves. Over the last decade they have really developed their energy sector and Lula will be golden if he can bring in that business. Venezuela will not challenge Brazil, I don't think. they do need to saber rattle a little bit otherwise that would be a show of weakness.
Pakistan performed an airstrike in Iranian territory after Iran did it first. https://www.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-air-force-carries-retaliatory-044100312.html As usual, the politics are actually pretty complicated.
Somalia has signed a treaty with Turkey to support their navy as Somalia is preparing to fight over Somaliland giving up a port - and possibly their sovereignty - to Ethiopia. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/somalia-announces-deal-turkey-deter-143336231.html
Due to a great deal of international pressure, Ethiopia is dropping their plans of getting access to the sea by making a deal with Somaliland. https://www.yahoo.com/news/ethiopia-may-scrap-somaliland-recognition-110015559.html We will have to see what their next idea is.