The math of death

August 17 at Montreal.

OTOH, we clinch the Wooden Spoon on Sep 28 at Toronto, giving us three home matches in the final month where we can celebrate our futility.

Thx,

Jay!

 

Our Tragic Number is 38. Combining our points lost, and the points gained by other teams, I figure that whittles down to zero by September 8 or 15.

 

I expect we'll get a 0-0 tie at some point and beat the Metros, hence I picked the later date.

Thx,

Jay!

 

At 13 losses, where every team in a playoff run in the last few years loses at least 3 in the second half of the season (putting us at 15 losses minimum), the chances are essentially zero right now. We'd have to basically win out from this point, literally, to make it. So basically 12 wins, 4 draws and no losses to end the season is what we likely need (48 pts), assuming the weakest Eastern conference in the last 3 years.

 

What's that have to do with when mathematical elimination happens?

Thx,

Jay!

 

Because the idea of mathematical elimination is based on a few factors: 1) how many points you can earn and in what way; 2) the pace of point earning by your competitors and 3) patterns and trends in point totals in previous years.

If you want to know when we're eliminated, you need to table the remaining games and possible points earned in such a way.

(1) 16-0-0 = 48pts + 8(current points) = 56 points
(2) 15-0-1 or 15-1-0= 45-46pts + 8(current points) = 53-54 points
(3) 14-0-2 or 14-1-1 = 42-43pts + 8(current points) = 50-51 points
(4) 13-0-3 or 13-1-2 or 13-2-1 or 13-3-0 = 39-42pts + 8(current points) = 47-50 points
(5) 12...

Thus, if you lose a single game, you can eliminate scenario (1) and scenario (2a), as well as scenario 3(a) and scenarios (4) and 5(a). Scenarios 6(x) do not net you enough points to make the playoffs, but you lose all scenarios involving no wins anyway.

Second, you have to consider the current pace of points earned by competitors. If you extend the table out, we see this as the final playoff earning point totals for the Eastern Conference:

64 (Montreal)
51 (New York)
51 (Philly)
51 (SKC)
46(Houston)

In previous years, entry to the playoffs required 53 points (2012) and 46 (2011), so it might be safe to assume that 47 might get you entry to the playoffs this year given what we've seen.

So the worst "realistic" records we could use to get into the playoffs this year include:

(1) 12W-0L-4D (netting us 48 points) [Gone with the first loss]
(2) 12W-1L-3D (netting us 47 points) [Gone with 2 losses]
(3) 13W-3L-0D (netting us 47 points) [Gone with 4 losses; else first draw moves us to (4)]
(4) 13W-2L-1D (netting us 48 points) [Gone with 3 losses; else 2 draws sends us to (5)]
(5) 13W-1L-2D (netting us 49 points) [Gone with 2 losses]

We cannot get less than 12 wins and make the playoffs given these estimations, because even a record of 11W-0L-5D nets us only 46 points.

 

So, what game did you pick there?

Thx,

Jay!

 

The question itself is awkward, because, as I mentioned, elimination is a function of what other teams are doing. In the best case scenario, given the current table, we have 3 losses to give (theoretically), unless we get draws. If we lose consecutively, then we are eliminated July 27 vs. New England. If the East worsens as a conference, we may not be eliminated until August 3. If we get draws and losses, we may be in it until August 10th (2L-2D). If we win games, it gets extended a week until we hit 3 losses. Theoretically we're a bit far off from mathematical elimination to wonder about it, but in reality, we've been out for a few weeks.

 

if you didn't want to play, you didn't have to post. There's nothing ambiguous about the question at all. Pick a date, have fun laughing at the expense of DC United.

Thx,

Jay!

 

Even though there is a remote mathematical possibility that DC can make the playoffs this year, they are already eliminated, mentally. Stick a fork in them, they're done. I honestly don't see United earning another point this season. They. Are. That. Awful.

I'll take 7/7 since 5/8 is not an option.

 

That's part of what makes it "fun" -- you're making a guess.

 

We've been eliminated as a practical matter for quite a bit longer than that.

Anyway, you can basically put a number on mathematical elimination. On average, we lose about 2.5 PPG. Everyone else in the east gains about 1.4 PPG. If that continues, then in 10 games we'll be out 25 points, and everyone else will have gained about 14. Add those together and you get 39 -- which is 1 point more than our current tragic number (ie how many points gained/lost until we're eliminated). The LA game on September 15 is that 10th game.

Maybe we'll do a bit better and won't lose points as fast. But that 1.4 PPG is a really low end measure for playoff bound teams in the east. The top 5 teams in the east are actually averaging 1.56 PPG. That said, even using those numbers, we're still looking at mathematical elimination in 10 games.

 

Elimination is a function I am compelled to do when I see United play, this season...

 

I'll go with September 15.

 

I suspect United will get about 2 points out of their next 7 games. So, how about 8/31, losing to NY. It seems feasible they will be 25 points out with 24 points available.

To me, when they were destroyed by Houston 4-0 at home and looked phenomenally bad doing it, I said out loud they had no chance but deep, deep inside I held out hope. Then when they lost at home to TFC, that voice was quieted forever.

 

Predicting when we get mathematically eliminated from the playoffs is like being tied to the railroad tracks and hearing a train coming.

You don't know exactly when you are going to be run over, but you know it's coming eventually.

 

here is a straight line formula that predicts with 100% accuracy the date:

1.36 Points to gain last playoff spot
34 Games in season
46.24 Total need to make playoff
9 Points to date
37.24 Points needed by DCU
16 DC Matches left
2.3275
Points need per match

Once the 'points need per match' equals 3, DCU is out; end of season. DC will need to have 12 or more points when we reach 12 matches to go (4 more matches) or that's it ...

I feel like a buzzard. Pass the BBQ sauce ...

 

The math I'm more interested in is goals.

Can we get to 17 goals by the end of year so we can finish above .50 per game?

How many players in MLS will have more goals than entire DC roster combined? Magee, mcInerney, Di Vaio and Camilo look in good shape now.

And lastly can our leading scorer get to the 4 goal mark before the end of the year?

 

It was over May. We'll end the season with less then 24 points

 

Own Goal's been playing great ... but can he defend?

 

He has to earn the right to play.

 

He's never offside, that's a start.

Thx,

Jay!