Reviewing the recent lineups the US put on the field, it hasn't fielded anywhere near a full strength squad in 2006. Probably not even a single game with 50% of likely WC starters. In 2005, you might say the Mexico game in September was the US at full strength. But it was not, and not really that close either. We started Armas, Ralston (subbed out for Quaranta late), Berhalter and Hejduk. That's four players who at best are barely making the final 23, but it is possible none will (with Hejduk's Jamaica mistake and Spector possibly making a surge...). So going back in time further, in mid August we fielded a team on par with the team we fielded vs. Mexico. Here again, Ralston (subbed out for Quaranta late), Berhalter, and now Albright. Also, though JOB played the first half, Armas played the second in his place. So pretty far from our WC squad, but very likely the closest we've seen in awhile. And since the England game featured a pretty weak lineup (Vanney, Ralston, Zavagnin...ugh), I think the most recent time we've fielded a team that could be remotely considered near our WC quality starting 11 (though it is a little bit weaker) was vs. Mexico in Azteca in March 2005, a game we lost. The lineup: Keller Bocanegra (Noonan, 75) Berhalter Onyewu Cherundolo (McBride, 83) Mastroeni (Ralston, 70) Reyna (Capt.) Lewis - 1 Beasley Donovan Johnson Consists entirely of WC bound players except late game subs Ralston and Noonan who are on the bubble for the 23 man roster. Bocanegra could very realistically be left back if Lewis is injured or starts sucking. Berhalter would probably not be there, Gibbs or Pope would, but other than that its a strong lineup. It lacks JOB (who would help immensely in Azteca, but I digress)...but its pretty damn strong. What's the point of this? Well we have been evaluating fringe players and pulling our hair out over it for, gulp, over a year now, without getting a taste of the real USMNT. And the last taste we had of the real USMNT was defeat to Mexico and a very poor US game. I think that as soon as all the hub bub over who barely makes the roster and who doesn't, we'll all realize it really doesn't matter who #23 and #22 are on the roster. It is the 11-14 guys that will actually play significant minutes that matter most. And these are the guys we are all comfortable with and are the ones who still perform respectfully among the debacles we've have vs. Germany and Jamaica. The point is that it is understandable that everyone focuses on the present, and the immediate present especially. And the immediate present is the announcement of the roster. But the truth is, who even remembers who the last guys were on the 2002 roster? I barely do. And I'm not saying they are meaningless. But the truth is they are far less meaningful than our core: Keller, Dolo, Gooch, Gibbs, Pope, Lewis, JOB, Reyna, Mastroeni, Convey, Beasley, Donovan, McBride These 13 players are the USMNT. Other players like EJ or Dempsey or Wolff or Bocanegra or whoever are going to help the team hopefully, but their impact will be very small relative to these 13. I think the discussion of these 13 will come to the forefront as soon as the May camp begins and we start the domestic friendlies. That is the relevant discussion. Whether Noonan or Ralston makes the team is not. Whether (hard for me to say, but) Rolfe or Wolff or Twellman makes the team doesn't matter that much in the big picture.
The Poland game was pretty close, though McBride and Reyna were the two notable missings: Keller Lewis Berhalter Onyewu Beasley Zavagnin Donovan Dempsey Twellman Johnson
Twellman, Zavagnin and Berhalter are all possibly or likely to not even make the final 23 man roster. Dempsey isn't a starter either. So this is not close to full strength.
Dempsey has been playing very confident lately, dont be surprised to see Dempsey in the majority of our starting line-ups this summer.
To follow up, these were the starters in the Poland game: Keller Lewis Berhalter Onyewu Beasley Zavagnin Donovan Dempsey Twellman Johnson When Dempsey scored, albeit early in the second half, these players were on the field: Howard Lewis Bocanegra Onyewu Cherundolo Beasley Zavagnin Donovan Dempsey Twellman Johnson
Any player not among these 13 or 14: Keller, Dolo, Gooch, Gibbs, Pope, Lewis, JOB, Reyna, Mastroeni, Donovan, Convey, Beasley, or McBride (EJ is a maybe) are not starting 11 players unless there are injuries. Dempsey is not in the starting 11 folks. With injuries and fatigue and tactics, he might start a game in the World Cup, but I think it is unlikely and he certainly is not a first choice 11 starter. Arena just recently stopped talking about him having to prove he deserves to be on the 23 man roster. He is on the roster for sure, but he is quite a bit away from being a starter and would have to leapfrog someone like Beasley or Convey to get there, which ain't happening. So, for the Poland game, we had 4 out of 10 field players, or 40%, not from the pool of 13 or 14 "first choice starting 11 players". That is a very depleted lineup. It was extremely strong compared to the all MLS sides the rest of the 2006 games have consisted of. But it was still significantly weaker than what we'll see in the World Cup. Think about it, what kind of upgrade are we talking about when we swap out Zavagnin for Reyna or JOB? It is not even close. Twellman for McBride? Ha. It is a huge difference, the entire face of the game changes with McBride and Reyna/JOB on the field.
Swap Reyna for Zav, BMB for Twellwoman, Gibbs for Beerh, and add Crundo and you may have something..... Thread starters point is a good one though.....hopefully the camp and games in May will help the core of the team get on the same page......this is one of Arena's strengths in the past.
Three thoughts. First, I think you underestimate how much Arena spreads the minutes around in tournaments. Second, apparently you have Donovan playing forward because you list only McBride as being part of the "influential" group. Other forwards will get significant minutes and whether or not they can contribute will go a long way towards determining how successful McBride and Donovan and our other attackers can be. Third, I strongly disagree with you about Dempsey. Especially if Donovan gets significant time up front, Dempsey should see a lot of time on the right side. None of your "influential" group are right midfielders, and though some may play out of position, whenever we bring out a diamond Dempsey will be the first choice for that side. To continue with the thought about Dempsey, Arena may have changed his philosophy since the last rotation, but last time he went in with DMB as his starter despite his limited experience. DMB was playing well and other left mids weren't. I see the same thing with Dempsey this time on the other side.
Along with McBride, Convey, and Lewis, but yes, it was a squad comprised laregely of players who will make the roster.
i would include Dempsey in the list at this point, which with EJ brings it to 15 (frankly, i'd include Dempsey long before Pope at this point). but your overall point remains well taken, although i'm not exactly sure what it means. we've generally played well without even having our best players together? we'll be better once we get to full strength? hopefully so. avoid injuries. avoid cards. cross fingers.
We consistently fielded the best available players in the WCQs (before we qualified). If there is any point in this, it is that we frequently have some of our better players unavailable due to injury, club committments, etc.
When people post what they think will be the starting 11 vs. Czech Republic on June 12 I like what i see from top to bottom in that roster. I'm gald we'll be at full strength vs. the Czechs b/c we need to beat them to have a real good chance of advancing, a tie or close loss vs. Italy won't kill us and as long as we take care of biz vs. Ghana we should advance. I know I just got a bit off topic, but if we put out our best 11 vs. anybody in the group we can get points. Something close to our best 11 vs. Italy shouldn't kill us, and we just need to play smart with what we've got vs. Ghana and we're out of the group. Obviously this is easier said than done.
Absolutely. My point is that it appears we are on track to have all of our first choice players healthy for the start of the WC. That could derail at any point, of course, but all who are currently injured are projected to be back well before June 12 and in time for the pre-WC friendlies. Regardless of why we haven't field a full strength lineup in over a year, the point is we haven't, and discussions about a fragmented lineup's performance don't have that much relevance to what we'll see in the WC if everyone, or most of the first choice players are healthy.