What Deadtigers and I are saying is that the act of changing the candidate will weaken the Democratic ticket more than keeping the current candidate. You're asking for evidence - there's not a lot of evidence because this doesn't happen very often. Because it doesn't work! In 1968, the incumbent LBJ dropped out, and the end result was President Nixon. There's no other examples of the incumbent President not running when he is eligible. There are examples of the incumbent President running and losing, but no examples of the incumbent President dropping out and being replaced by someone in their own party who goes on to win. The reason I'm providing for why Biden shouldn't drop out is based on the current behavior of media and social media. They're all in for Trump. They cover every Biden misstep and ignore much worse behavior from Trump. Biden dropping out will be red meat. It will be the only story. Trump can have a seizure at a rally and the story will still be "Democrats are unprepared and weak." The only way the transition happens without this perception of weakness is if Biden dies or is assassinated, and if I'm rooting for someone to be assassinated, I'm going to root for Trump being assassinated, because that way for sure we won't have President Trump. I'm glad you have an exit strategy, but keep in mind that Deadtigers doesn't have one. I'm personally going to stay and fight, but I have a thick layer of insulation provided by my white skin, my penis, my attraction to ladies' boobies, and a whole bunch of money.
i think it’s doubtful the dem ticket can get lower in the polls. the problem is biden has little potential to improve that is why i’d risk a change.
Humphrey came damn close to winning and faced very strong headwinds, including but not limited to a shitty economy and Nixon negotiating with the Viet Cong behind America's back. The media is not in the tank for Trump, they are in the tank for clicks. Well, what do you think is going to generate more clicks than a change in the Democratic nominee?
Yeah, I don't think it's decided yet and the GOP's overconfidence and assumption they're going to win might hurt them in the long run.... particularly if it comes across as arrogance.
Vietnam may have played a part in that. The situations are extremely different and are really not comparable. And how many examples are there of an 81 year old running and winning? And so by Biden staying in that will change? It won't. Sure it will be red meat, but that doesn't make it the worse case scenario. Biden staying in will be a feeding frenzy until election day because he is unprepared and weak, as demonstrated in the debate. Biden can willingly step aside, explain that Father Time does take its toll on everyone, and that we need to look to the future, not to candidates in their late 70s and 80s. These are extraordinary times needing extra-ordinary solutions. Which is exactly my point - it's not life and death for you, whereas it possibly is for me. As such, you're willing to play it safe because you will likely be safe. You are effectively willing to risk the lives of Jews, gays, trans, etc., by playing it "safe" because you will mostly be fine. We have the Holocaust hanging over us as a reminder of where this can go. You don't.
What I am saying is the black woman has a better chance than the old white guy who is likely to either be incapacitated or die before the next term is over (if not sooner).
meh, I don't think that 'story' has legs to it. Its also a total non sequitur to go from "Biden is old and not up for another 4 years" to "all Democrats are weak". And yeah, I know this country is full of nitwits so it may be the story for a while, but media and social media will get diverted by the next shiny story that comes along. We still have 3-4 months which is as long (longer?) than most countries entire presidential campaigning period. Even putting aside Biden's age, it would have been difficult to become a 2-term POTUS. Not because of the job he's done but because repeating is simply going to be more difficult in these times when there is a general lack of trust in institutions and a feeling that governments aren't doing enough for the people. That's just a global phenomenon atm.
I'm pushing back on this. I disagree that replacing Biden will improve the Democratic chances, so by sticking with Biden, I want Jews, gays, trans, etc. to have a better chance of surviving under Biden's second term than under Trump's second term, which I believe is more likely if we replace Biden. That's not me rooting for a Holocaust - that's me weighing the odds and arguing for what I believe is the best option. I understand that you don't agree with this, but just because you have more at stake than I do doesn't mean you're correct.
Clicks are generated by conflict. Trump causes conflict everywhere he goes. Democrats make a change and a few clicks happen and then the media goes right back to rooting for another Trump administration.
I didn't say you would be rooting for it - actively wanting something to happen is not the same as being willing to risk it.
For me the biggest concern about Biden's polling is how far behind other Dems he is running - whereas other lesser known dems are only slightly ahead of him - that tends to indicate this is not a polling error. He's just a poor candidate
But how long will Democrats actually be in the spotlight if they go through the process of choosing a new candidate? (During which they will place a lot of negative focus on the fascist). Let's say it takes 3 weeks - well, that's about 20% of the rest of the campaign. Democrats in the spotlight for 20% of the campaign while the orange fascist is sidelined.
I wish I could give you a hug! Thanks Sam! This is my whole thing. We are asking to do something we have never done before and saying we should count on a candidate switch, at the 10th hour and think every thing that needs to go right will? I just don't believe it will.
IMO what the media might do is a much less important question than Biden's terrible numbers with young voters, young black and latino voters, trump/biden swing voters etc His only current path to victory is a low turnout election I don;t see how he wins unless Trump implodes somehow - but is it really likely Trump will generate a worse scandal that getting convicted of felonies?
I disagree. Do you know how hard it is as a black person to constantly be aware of your tone and body language when you're in a business meeting or talking to White people. Now in a race for the presidency, Paris has to somehow be tough on Trump without looking like an uppity and or angry black woman. That is an tough Act to do. California is not America and you're trying to win over swing States and people who claim that they're not racist but are probably definitely prejudice or bias against black people especially black women.
But appeals to "it's never been done before" are not often valid. There is a first time for everything. If we never did things that had never been done before, we would still be in the Stone Age.
The history of this country has shown me different so pardon me if I don't believe you. Furthermore, need I remind you that some of us have a significant other and children and we have the sort of fascism hanging around us and we have no place to go. You're asking me to believe in some sort of Hail Mary that has never happened before to save us when I'm like why don't we do what his work before and what has a greater history of work and before.
But that's just it, it hasn't worked before. We have never had a situation where an 81 year old incumbent who is showing active decline has won an election. What you are hoping for IS a Hail Mary, if not a miracle, by an old Catholic guy who needs to be in bed by 8 pm to be functional the next day, or so his aides are implying.
But like I asked you last time what kind of tickets wouldn't have you ever seen to that level. People tickets but usually in president and Governor because they like their governor but you don't see a ticket splitting in senators and president. Find me a time when people voted for the senator of one party and the president of another and the difference was 10% like some of these polls are claiming.