The Joe Biden Presidency II : He's too old...or something like that!

If you want to rally people, you need to give them hope for the future to rally around. Biden is not the future. "Vote for the person who could very well die during his term" is not the underlying message that will drive people to the polls.

Until the convention actually officially nominates the candidate, there is time to change. Republicans are putting up a very beatable candidate, but Biden is not the one who can beat him because putting forth Biden is equivalent to giving them the playbook you are using in advance and nullifying one of the successful plays you could be using.

Biden will lose if he is the candidate. There is no getting around that. The only chance we have is to get someone who can go after the orange fascist articulately and energetically.

Yes, we definitely need someone who will forcefully tie the orange fascist to January 6th. Biden is not doing that successfully.

Bad? It was not bad, it was horrific.

If he is the best candidate then Democrats have no future.

Exactly, I don't expect people to vote if Biden is the candidate - especially young people. Have you talked to them?

With Biden as the candidate you will not get the turnout you need.

Which is what they said and no one believed them. The fact that it was such a catastrophic night cannot be glossed over.

That doesn't make it any less juvenile or sexist. People are not penises.

 

@Sounders78

If the last eight years aren't reason enough to go vote, we deserve whatever we get for not being cult enough to defend ourselves and each other.

 

Point to me the times in US history where this moonshot of switching candidates midstream has worked? The public wasn't smart enough to pick the best candidate for the position in 2016 but somehow we believe we're going to do something totally unprecedented that would steal attention from trying to say Donald Trump is bad and have Democrats running around in circles for more than the two weeks over the bad debate and yet still win. Brother, we both in the line of Fire, if Trump wins, but I don't see how you believe making a switch at this point and time will be seen as a power move and not signs of a weak party. So your message is going to be the malcontent that believed that we should have stuck with Biden to stay on the same team and not leak to the press? After stabbing join his team in the back and showing no will to fight for him you now want me to fight for Gavin newsom or somebody else? Good luck getting people to knock on doors and phone bank for that cause.

 

You're a teacher, listen to what your students are saying. I have no problem thinking people in our age group will vote because we remember the hell that was his presidency. The young people I've talked to do not feel that way. That is a problem.



edit: Asking young people to vote for a guy who was graduating high school when their grandparents were born is not something that will motivate them to vote.

 

And point to me the times in US history where this election with a dictator-in-waiting former president is a candidate is foreshadowed. This is not a normal election. If you keep playing by the old rules, you will lose.

 

Biden, like Obama, divided the country by winning an election, thereby hurting the fee-fees of people who think their rights are violated whenever they’re not allowed to dominate others. You can’t get more divisive than that.

 

And you think the people who likes Biden will just jump on board with a new candidate. Not feeling disrespected that their wants didn't matter. You do all of this to anyone get the kids but lose the parents who don't view the move as a move of strength. Why wasn't it done earlier? Why didn't I have a say in who the new guy would be? Why should I trust a party so incapable of seeing a disaster coming?

You create more problems than you solve. The youth are a problem but you can campaign and send surrogates out to win them. You have no idea this plan will work and with Biden within a couple of points, I don't see how such a big risk makes more sense than staying the course and working like the Dickens on turnout. The time to change has passed, I wish you would realize that and give up on this pipe dream. Some Dems crumbled to press narrative after debate and you expect discipline after a move that will tear the party and base apart?

 

Let me ask you this, will you not vote because Biden decides he won't run? Who actually are these people who will sit it out because Biden decides to remove himself from the election?

And regarding the youth, there are two main types of messaging - explicit and implicit. The implicit messaging is what ultimately carries the most weight (in my opinion), even if it is not the loudest. The youth have already heard the implicit message. Listen to what they are saying and you will hear it.

Biden has 0% chance of winning. I will vote for him, of course, but he has 0% chance of winning. If he is the official nominee, then when I get home I will be putting my place up for sale, because I will need to move on January 2 (that's the date I have already bought a ticket for).

 

The people who won't vote for him are the other group of liberals that are pro Biden. This is a battle between white liberals. Some say change, some say stay the course. Minorities will vote Dem because that is all we can do. Remember the Dem crying to the press is one side of the coin, there are dems not crying to the press that believe the other way. And what about old whites who have never seen such a thing and will think it is proof the Dems have no idea what they are doing. But hey, we showed the kids it's serious so that will totally juice turnout and all the people that didn't come out won't matter, unless it does.

 

Here's the current state of affairs. Data from the most recent polls come from here, while data from the 2020 exit polls come from here.

The first number is 2020, the second number is current polls (either NY Times/Siena or The Times (UK). 2020 exit polls is for 18-29 year olds, as is the NY Times/Siena. The Times (UK) polls are for 18-34 year olds - so not direct comparisons. States are color-coded to indicate positive, neutral or negative change since 2020.

Arizona: Biden +31 in 2020, +6 now (The Times)
Georgia: Biden +13 in 2020, +13 now (The Times)
Michigan: Biden +24 in 2020, +16 now (The Times)
Nevada: Biden +30 in 2020, +9 now (The Times)
North Carolina: Biden +17 in 2020, +10 now (The Times)
Pennsylvania: Biden +27 in 2020, +12 now (NY Times/Siena) or +6 (The Times)
Virginia: Biden +29 in 2020, +5 now (NY Times/Siena)
Wisconsin: Biden +23 in 2020, +30 now (The Times)


Some of those are dramatic declines. Wisconsin is an interesting outlier.

As a side note, the NY Times/Siena polls provide both Biden v Orange fascist and Harris v Orange fascist. In both instances Harris does better with the younger voters.


Now, what data do you have regarding old liberal whites that says they will actually either stay home or, if they do vote, not vote for the Democrat? Do you actually have any evidence whatsoever?

 

Harris!?! Dude we know that's is not realistic. So are Dems to skip over her?

Technically you don't have a data as in precedent that this would make sense. I don't have data, I just have basic human action. You are saying that moving to Harris means a better showing but that is certirus peribus. I am saying there is no way to know things will hold. There is no data that this move won't shed voters. The conviction you have that a change is necessary is not shared universally.

You are saying gamble it all to skip over Harris and pick Newsome and all the Dems will go along plus we will get the kids. You know and I know such a move will shed voters who disagree with the decision. How many, we don't know.

 

Well let's start with this one. Which he continues to use in his current campaign.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-very-fine-people/

 

Yes, I am saying gamble it all. The hand we are currently holding will lose - there is no doubt in my mind about that and there hasn't been any doubt for over two years since I first publicly stated that in these threads.

I would rather give us some hope than maintain absolutely no chance at all.

 

You're paying attention. I've made you post meme after meme. I'm the light and you're the moth. PS love the memes.

 

Amber Rose gave a classy and heartfelt speech - admitting she was lied to by the media, and saw the light after doing her own research 🔥
pic.twitter.com/VR4NVld08w

— Sara Rose 🇺🇸🌹 (@saras76) July 16, 2024

 

But I don't believe it is hope. I don't believe such a change will work well. If he didn't run two years ago, then sure but to do so now, it just will scream weakness. You think 2 weeks of old Joe was a bad. Imagine the firestorm this will create.

 

You keep referencing that and I understand why.

That said, it's not really the convincing argument you think it is.

You see, many of us view those who opposed the taking down of Confederate statues as inherently white supremacists. As such, the distinction the Orange fascist is making between the Neo-Nazis & White supremacists with the "fine people" who opposed the taking down of the Confederate statues is not a distinction that we make - those "fine people" are also White supremacists in our eyes because they are supporting the racist past (you can also call them traitors, if you wish, given they are defending those who tried to overthrow the American government, but that's another issue).

Furthermore, as the article you quote notes, the White supremacists and Neo-Nazis praised the Orange fascists response, even though he was supposedly condemning them. You see, we don't view his condemnation of them as being sincere, and clearly they didn't either. Thus, we surprisingly agree with the Neo-Nazis and White supremacists on the point that the Orange fascist was not actually condemning them.

 

Just post memes, he will be as through in understanding your point as all you wrote.

 

I'm much more concerned about the next 3+ months of "old Joe".

And saying things like "weakness" does nothing to influence my opinion. You see, gay men have a lifelong history of being denigrated for being "less than" straight men, for being "weak", "sissies", "pansies", etc. From our perspective it is what the bullies say. As such, those types of claims are received as bluster, or even a dishonest attempt to obfuscate reality. The greater weakness is being scared of change (Republicans are a great example), not leaning into the wind and forging a new path because you have been told you will fall off the edge of the world.


edit: And regarding Harris shedding voters that would otherwise vote for Biden, keep in mind the implicit recognition that Biden will likely not make it for a full term. Thus, a vote for Biden is a de facto vote for Harris as the president, even if it is not explicit. This is one of the implicit messages that needs to be dealt with. If you think people won't vote for Harris, then there is an even bigger problem than you are admitting.

 

I'm not surprised. Everyone is labeled you disagree with but that's actually called presentism. You actually have no problem with Biden and Harris who both have problems like this.

Trump completely broke the left. Listen to what they think about July 13th. Wild.pic.twitter.com/1NUaekziZa

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 16, 2024

 

Ya know-- that just looks to me like a list of states that Biden is well positioned to win... I don't see the disaster there at all...

 

It's only for voters of a certain age.

 

First, I'm not sure where you get that I have no problem with Biden and Harris. You are effectively ignoring what I actually say and imposing on me what I do not say.

Second, I've watched that video and am not making the connection you are. He interviews a lot of people who think the Orange fascist staged an assassination attempt against himself. Personally, I don't think it was staged and have argued that in this forum. Regardless, how is that a problem for Biden and Harris that Democrats don't trust the Orange fascist and attribute to him deceptive behavior, given he has a habit of lying about anything and everything, from the size of his inauguration crowds to the size of his hands? Neither Biden nor Harris are saying it was staged, so what exactly is the problem?

 

Actually, it shows the opposite.

As wantmlsphilly noted, those numbers are for a specific age-group. The 18-29 age group represented roughly 1/6 of the 2020 vote. As such, if you take the difference between the 2020 exit polls and the current poll you can get an estimate of how much of the overall vote will change. Keep in mind this is only for 8 states, but many are critical swing states. Also keep in mind the following assumes all the other age groups and variables stay the same.

Arizona: The 25% drop translates to roughly a 4% loss in the general vote. That means instead of winning Arizona by 0.3%, Biden loses by 3.4%. Take 11 electoral votes from Biden and give them to the orange fascist.

Georgia: No change.

Michigan: The 8% drop translates to roughly a 1.3% loss in the general vote. Biden won Michigan by 2.8%, so no change in the electoral college.

Nevada: The 21% drop translates to roughly a 3.5% loss in the general vote. Biden won Nevada by 2.3%, so a 3.5% loss means the orange fascist wins Nevada's 6 electoral votes.

North Carolina: The 7% drop translates to roughly a 1.16% loss in the general vote. The fascist won NC last time, so no change in the electoral votes.

Pennsylvania: The 15% drop translates to roughly a 2.5% loss in the general vote. Biden won Penn by 1.2% last time, so a 2.5% loss means the orange fascist wins Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes.

Virginia: The 24% drop translates to roughly a 4% loss in the general vote. Biden won Virginia by over 10%, so no change in the electoral votes.

Wisconsin: The 7% increase translates to roughly a 1.16% increase in the general vote. Biden won Wisconsin last time, so no change in the electoral votes.



Thus, the end result is in those 8 states, 37 electoral votes would shift from Biden to the orange fascist. That means the electoral college would now be even 269 to 269 if all the other states stayed exactly the same. However, from 2020 to 2024 the distribution of electoral votes has changed, with CA, IL, NY, MI, PA, OH, WV losing one each, while FL, MT, NC, CO, OR each gained one and TX gained 2. This means Biden would lose more than the orange fascist would (PA is credited to the fascist, given above), giving the victory to the orange fascist.