The left is on the Biden train, we "centrist" need to get on it and shut the F up. We will win or lose with the old man. 🚨 BREAKING: Senator Bernie Sanders Publishes NYT Op-Ed in Support of President BidenWow! This is really good stuff from Bernie:Sanders: “I will do all that I can to see that President Biden is re-elected. Why? Despite my disagreements with him on particular issues, he has… pic.twitter.com/CFRmcBRgUZ— Chris D. Jackson (@ChrisDJackson) July 13, 2024
this is becoming increasingly clear although I’m not sure how he gets through the next debate. hopefully he has a good doc working with him who’s were versed in geriatric medicine and stimulants.
If the drugs drink that Republicans keep talking about is real, the next debate would be the best time to use it.
* cross posting as it was in the wrong thread * Longwell's latest focus groups are POC voters who voted for Clinton and Biden. They sound a lot like @Auriaprottu ! Really great analysis and interesting audio. Highly recommend. Love Audie Cornish. 1. Calls into doubt the idea black women will insist on Kamala. These three groups were down on her especially because they know how racist and misogynistic America is. 2. Older voters, (gen x) mostly support Biden out of pragmatism given the stakes. Anyway. this one changed my opinion on a couple of things.
I've been listening to these groups for years, so it didn't surprise me that just like the POC swing voters, the Clinton / Biden voters (dems) also don't rate Kamala. But the reasons were much more pragmatic. They understand that white America won't elect a black woman - whereas white american liberals apparently don't understand that. The CW that Kamala can't be passed over because "the black women will be mad" may be more of a Biden attack on Kamala than real (Team Biden has been advancing this threat/rationale in Dem circles). Audie Cornish talked about what she calls "post Awokening" politics. The George Floyd era of Dem politics is a political theory that is dead. In the face of backsliding into fascism these black voters just want someone who can win. The identity stuff is secondary, when its existential - they are all for playing defence. In contrast. younger POC who lived through Trump I with 'no problems' are much more likely to be relaxed about a second Trump presidency They also dug in to how these voters are somewhat betrayed by the political establishment. The Clyburn moment was a pragmatic alliance in terms of how they voters it. A pathway to something else. Now they've been forced in to a choice they didn't want. They all see Biden as way too old, but he's all they've got. According to Cornish, the debate revealed a truth and forced a reckoning that should have happened a year ago. In other words, the elites are late to realising that the voters were right. Anyway i do understand @Auriaprottu's ride or die attitude a bit more now.
That really didn't surprise me at all because of how I feel about someone like Pete Buttigieg if he were in consideration. While some of the focus group said they thought America would be more ready to elect a white gay male than a black female, I don't see it at all (mainly because there is a lot of homophobia in the black community, which is the core of the Democratic party). A lot of what I have said about Buttigieg is basically paralleled by what the focus group was saying about Kamala Harris. I've even mentioned Buttigieg's name would be problematic (a gay man whose name starts with "Butt"). The pragmatism didn't surprise me at all. Superdave recently presented me with such a scenario to get my opinion, and then he said he didn't believe me when I said I would understand it if a gay man was passed over as some are saying Harris could be passed over. I do totally get it. The most important thing is the orange fascist not winning; if we get upset and protest that our "representative" is passed over and we end up losing, all is lost. If my choice is having "my candidate" passed over or being exterminated, I'll take the former. No surprise there to me either. Younger people wouldn't have been as engaged during his presidency, so they won't have as clear a memory about it. Add to it two months ago my mum was saying "I lived through it once so I can do it again". And I remember how terrified / terrorized she was during those 4 years, given she is not a citizen and the orange fascist at one time declared France a "terrorist country". He made our lives living hell, but she glossed over that and decided she could live through it again. (She has since changed her mind on that). But if that is how my mum reacted, young people would be even more forgetful and forgiving about it. What I had thought Biden would have done was give Kamala more prominent "tasks" over the last three years to raise her profile and make everyone more comfortable with her. I had even hoped he would then resign after three years so that we could become "comfortable" having a female president. Instead, it feels like Hillary had more prominent tasks during Bill's presidency than Kamala has had during Biden's. There was no "grooming" Kamala to prepare us to have her as president. I find that a great failing of Biden's presidency. But it's too late now.
Yes - they've all seen how HRC and Obama were treated. Also, the 'candidate' they do all like, Michelle Obama, was also treated shockingly. Unsurprisingly, white people are more naive about this, or have forgotten parts of it because of how MO is now seen post book etc. Yes. The backsliding is more important with elites, and older people, who know how bad it will be. Agreed - it's a longer story which has been covered on a few shows now - see Ezra Klein last week
The other thing about older people is they're more aware that Trump's version of politics isn't 'normal'. With younger people they're more inclined to believe this stuff that it's 'always been like this'. IMO this was always the problem with calling people like GW Bush and Boris Johnson fascists when they clearly weren't fascists. When you get people like Trump or Farage, who are, they just think it's 'more of the same' because they haven't got the depth of knowledge to know the difference.
Count me as one of those black people that didn't believe Kamala would win. These guys lost their mind when a black guy won and wouldn't vote for a female candidate more qualified than Kamala. Like what world are white Liberals living in?? The youth really are a problem. It's tough to explain the stakes because "you can't tell me tomorrow is a big deal, when yesterday and today feel the exact same!" I do worry about turnout. But I remain positive because I don't see how Trump has grown his support. The shooting may help him bring back Haley voters and never Trumpers but no tepid Dem is now gonna vote for him. This boils down to turnout and Biden may need to list all the things he has done or tried to do to help young people.
Seeing as how people in this thread want to be data driven, i'd highly recommend the latest PSA on this topic. Biden actually needs a lower turnout election than '20 The reason is he is shedding parts of his coalition around the edges and he doesn't have much space to improve. So the best for him is if a lot of voters stay at home on both sides from the '20 voter frame If all of Mangos '20 voters come out again - Biden will likely lose.
It's worse than this. I'd argue anyone 24 or younger. For the majority, pre 16 (pre 2016) doesn't even register politically.
I'll be honest, I don't think that's true. I think she's just not that popular for all sorts of reasons. Obama was a black guy but he was a community organiser and generally thought of as 'cool' because, well... he WAS cool. She's an ex-prosecutor, IIRC, and those aren't generally liked on the left. Also, AFAIK, she hasn't had a great deal of exposure for the past few years I remember reading this a while ago... Kamala Harris one year: Where did it go wrong for her? Kamala Harris assumed office in historic fashion, becoming the first woman to serve "a heartbeat away from the presidency". But her first year as vice-president has been far from a smooth ride. The job has not come easy. Ms Harris' approval ratings have slumped. The president has tasked her with assignments that range from the intractable to virtually insoluble. Her office has been beset by high-profile resignations. If Ms Harris accepted her party's vice-presidential nomination thinking she would be anointed as the Democratic heir apparent to the presidency, it was a notion that did not take long to dispel. While Mr Biden said in a press conference on Wednesday that he would keep her as his running mate if he stands for re-election, it remains to be seen whether that will put to rest speculation about her political future. So what, exactly, has gone wrong for her - and can she set it right? There are no easy explanations and few easy answers. That's why I asked what other people thought about her when Biden's problems were being discussed... because it's the obvious option but, as far as I could tell, she wasn't that well thought of among dem voters for some reason. So I'm not saying her colour isn't an issue. I'm just saying it seems to be a more nuanced matter than that would suggest.
VPs have to often fight for coverage and she couldn't get any. The press was all about Trump and slagging off Biden, so when she does get stuff, it doesn't hit for more than a day. She should have been AG.
Well, that's the point of the TV show 'Veep' isn't it. She had an uphill battle... I get that. I'm just relaying what the perception has been over here and NOT just from 'the usual suspects' on the right. Zurcher's a decent reporter and pretty much straight down the line on US politics.
To quote Bill James (probably not word for word) "If a scapegoat is being sought, that is often an indicator that a scapegoat will shortly be needed."
I think this is at least partially true. My attempts to talk politics with my 26 year old son genuinely fall flat.
Who was it that said the VP job wasn't worth a warm glass of piss. In a traditional media environment She would have a chance based on Biden's great accomplishments but with this media and being a woman. It wasn't happening.
MAGAs will be motivated to vote, now more than ever, voters that hate Trump will vote, we will vote for Biden. But there are a lot of people that do not like Trump or Biden, many that tell pollsters they will vote 3rd party. who know what those people will do. Maybe they will stay home or skip the president portion of the ballot.
Unfortunately, that includes a lot of young people who typically vote Democrat. I've talked to some of my students in that category, which is one reason (among many) I am not optimistic about the election.
The kids must be aware of Trumps impact on the Supreme Court and the subsequent rolling back of all the progress that was made. Apathy seems like such an odd response to what we're seeing play out, after all it's their futures we're talking about.
Biden / Harris 2024 Harris / Buttigieg 2028 Harris / Buttigieg 2032 Buttigieg / Some Gen Z 2036 Buttigieg / Some Gen Z 2040 2040 is when I plan to retire from work and BigSoccer