She knows she’s otherwise get primaried in two years. So 2024 becomes the Sinema Show. If a Dem runs against her, the seat will either be won by Sinema or the GOP.
Would a moderate Dem have any chance, assuming the AZ GOP nominates another Kari Lake type extremist? I honestly don't know how much of a base Sinema actually has in the state, once she no longer has a 'D' by her name.
Not actually poking at you; just wanted to point it out before other people pick it up and it becomes another "free reign..."
The point is that if a Dem runs, Sinema will pull more Dem votes than Rep votes. Despite her attempts to act like she’s a centrist, she’s not going to get that many Rep votes. As a result, the Dem vote will be split and, more than likely, the Republican has an easier path to victory.
If I may, I have a question about the 3/5 clause what other options were being considered? Were inslaved people to be counted as 1 whole or not counted at all? If they were counted as whole… wouldn’t the slave States have more representation in Congress? the slave States would also never agree to not counting the slaves as that would decrease their rep
yes. There may be a very, very limited set of circumstances where KS would pull more GOP votes than Dem votes, but that scenario is extremely unlikely. I think the GOP candidate quality would need to be lower than Lake and the Dem candidate quality would likely need to be higher than anything AZ—or any other state really—has at their disposal. Then you might have a scenario where enough KS voters peel off to super Dem candidate and enough GOP voters peel off to Sinema. That’s probably no better than a 5% shot.
Both. Americans wanted no slaves counted. Confederates wanted them all counted. Yes. That's how they arrived at 60%
One thing I have not heard about this exchange is that Griner is a Black (biracial) woman. Sure, it was a small drug conviction v. an arms dealer, but socially and politically it was a White man for a Black woman.
I get that, I'm just trying to be somewhat optimistic that there's a way to beat that dynamic. But also, I'm really wondering who LIKES Sinema in AZ. AZ. Incumbency may be all she needs, though.
Doubt it. Have you seen her numbers with the democrats in Az? She must be close to Lake territory with democratic voters in the state. She was in the low 30s before her move. She is despised. I don't think she will run at all. She will take her grift somewhere else.