The job market, inflation and tariffs

Cascarino's Pizzeria · Sep 17, 2025

Half of Javanka has thoughts on jobs for yoots

Jared Kushner says young people should work in government over Big Tech: 'It's a 2-year business school stint'

https://www.businessinsider.com/jared-kushner-young-people-work-government-big-tech-doge-2025-9

russ · Sep 17, 2025

Wah wah,now that we've destroyed government,no wants da government jerbs!
But wait maybe we can make service guarantee citizenship!

dapip · Sep 17, 2025

And we still have (at the very least) 1200 to go!!!

superdave · Sep 17, 2025

I dunno, 2.7% over 240 days comes to something like 4.0% annually, which is a perfectly fine number (so long as it stays at 4%.). And that’s for the one sector that tweeter chose to show how bad it is.

superdave · Sep 17, 2025

This is from the first post in the thread.

Somehow the idea has permeated our political press, and voters, that any inflation is bad, that it’s supposed to be 2-3% at the MOST. That idea is unsound.

superdave said: ↑

1. IMO inflation, in context, is absolutely nothing to take action on. We knew coming out of the pandemic would create a ton of weirdness. Further, the investing class, through its dominance of politics and the media, has convinced itself and us that inflation over 3% is a problem, when it manifestly is not. This latest era of anemic median income growth has coincided with inflation dipping down to 2%. Further, the zero bound limits the ability of the Fed to use interest rates to regulate the economy when inflation is considered too high the moment it goes over 2%. If inflation starts clocking in over 5% for more than 2 months in a row, then we need to consider a policy response.
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rslfanboy · Sep 17, 2025

superdave said: ↑

I dunno, 2.7% over 240 days comes to something like 4.0% annually, which is a perfectly fine number (so long as it stays at 4%.). And that’s for the one sector that tweeter chose to show how bad it is.
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I like a number closer to 3%, but whatever.

I hate these “dunking” takes that could so easily turn out to be shit for any number of reasons.

Yet the main point stands, that Trump promised to lower food prices. Unless you eat mainly soy and eggs, that is unlikely to be the case.

JamesA · Sep 17, 2025

superdave said: ↑

This is from the first post in the thread.

Somehow the idea has permeated our political press, and voters, that any inflation is bad, that it’s supposed to be 2-3% at the MOST. That idea is unsound.
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That number isn't made up by the press or voters. It's also not terribly unique to the US.

It has been studied by economic academics from across the globe for quite a long time now.

soccernutter · Sep 17, 2025

Fed lowers 25bp, as expected.

Fed Dot Plot

Who ever that 2.5 to 3.0 by end of year is bonkers. I suspect it is Miran, the new guy.

Also, multiple questions at the press conference about Marin hold a position both at the Fed and within the Trump Administration. There is an underlying current of the press of concerns that the Fed will not be independent at some point.

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Separate question - @superdave you (I think you) said a while back that Congress set the goal of the inflation rate at 2% to 4%. I've been trying to confirm that, apart from the more general things I've been seeing of full employment and stable prices, which Powell said where the Fed mandates three times today (at least). Where did you get that Congress set the inflation target rate (assuming it was you)?

JamesA · Sep 17, 2025

soccernutter said: ↑

Fed lowers 25bp, as expected.

Fed Dot Plot

View attachment 309306

Who ever that 2.5 to 3.0 by end of year is bonkers. I suspect it is Miran, the new guy.

Also, multiple questions at the press conference about Marin hold a position both at the Fed and within the Trump Administration. There is an underlying current of the press of concerns that the Fed will not be independent at some point.

----

Separate question - @superdave you (I think you) said a while back that Congress set the goal of the inflation rate at 2% to 4%. I've been trying to confirm that, apart from the more general things I've been seeing of full employment and stable prices, which Powell said where the Fed mandates three times today (at least). Where did you get that Congress set the inflation target rate (assuming it was you)?
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You might be getting a bit confused.

The stable price and full employment mandate is set by Congress. I've said that on here before.

What percentage defines "stable prices" is set by the FOMC though.

song219 · Sep 17, 2025

soccernutter said: ↑

Separate question - @superdave you (I think you) said a while back that Congress set the goal of the inflation rate at 2% to 4%. I've been trying to confirm that, apart from the more general things I've been seeing of full employment and stable prices, which Powell said where the Fed mandates three times today (at least). Where did you get that Congress set the inflation target rate (assuming it was you)?
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I'm pretty sure a long time ago probably in the seventies a law was passed (Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act) or something like that set limits for unemployment but I don't think it had an inflation mandate.

Robert Borden · Sep 17, 2025

The US sure are amazing friends and allies - threats... and some people still think "they are the good guys"

My prediction is that we'll delay the decision and use this as a bargaining chip when CUSMA gets reopened next year. SAAB is offering to build more jets, cheaper IN Canada.

Ball is in your court...

Personally, we should go with SAAB while have the next generation designed & built here.

superdave · Sep 17, 2025

@soccernutter

Once upon a time the mandate was higher than 2, lower than 4. For some time now it’s been 2% over the long run.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/economy-at-a-glance-inflation-pce.htm

soccernutter · Sep 17, 2025

superdave said: ↑

@soccernutter

Once upon a time the mandate was higher than 2, lower than 4. For some time now it’s been 2% over the long run.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/economy-at-a-glance-inflation-pce.htm
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I think we are talking about two different things.
The mandate that Congress gave, which was high employment and stable prices.
And the goal the Fed has for itself, which is 2% (and I, too, though it was the 2% to 4%).

soccernutter · Sep 17, 2025

JamesA said: ↑

You might be getting a bit confused.

The stable price and full employment mandate is set by Congress. I've said that on here before.

What percentage defines "stable prices" is set by the FOMC though.
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If you did, I missed it. Sorry.

celito · Sep 17, 2025

argentine soccer fan said: ↑

How familiar are you with China?

I'm not saying whatever China is offering is worse than what the US is offering under Trump, but China under Xi is not exactly a reliable partner either. They will take what you give them and will exploit you if they can, as much as they can.

I worked a lot with China, I had my own business there for over 20 years, and under Jian Xemin they were increasingly a reliable partner, and very much interested in productive relationships with foreign investors and nations. This started to get a bit more problematic under Hu Jintao's leadership. There was a reversal of policies (not unlike what Trump is doing in the US, although more subtle) that inclined the field in favor of China and against the foreign interests.

Also the trends at the local provincial levels were getting worse, both in terms of corruption (which always existed) and government interference, mostly regulatory uncertainty with changes unfavorable to foreign investment. For reference, my business interrests were primarily in Liaoning province, but I worked enough with other provinces to know that this was a general trend.

By 2009 things got so complicated that I decided on an exit strategy and I got out of China completely by 2012. I still stay in touch with contacts in China as well as people who still do business there to know that once Xi Jinping took over things are getting progressively worse.

Things are also getting worse for the Chinese people themselves, and you can tell a lot about how a country will treat you based on how they treat their own. And, there are numerous examples of countries that worked with China in the past 20 years and ended up getting the short end of the stick. This is also true of foreign business investors.

I understand the reasons for Brazil turning closer to China given the US present hostility and attempts to interfere in their internal affairs, I'd probably do the same if I was in a position of leadership there, but you have to be extremely wary in how you deal with China, and I certainly wouldn't call becoming more dependent on China a victory.

Think of the Jewish Maccabees in the 2nd century BC forming an alliance with the Romans in order to protect themselves from the Seleucid empire. They may have felt at the time that turning to Rome was a victory, but long term it didn't turn up well. Okay, the Roman empire was obviously going to take over anyway regardles of what the Maccabees did, and China may very well become the preeminent world power regardless of what Brazil does today. But if China does become the preeminent power in the world, Brazil and the rest of the world are going to be in very deep shit. So, be careful what you celebrate!
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It’s interesting that the whole world has a good view of the US current problems as everything is pretty exposed and shared . I haven’t looked hard , but it seems that Chinas problems are not that publicized . I remember some of the real estate crisis with Evergrande going kaput … but there doesn’t seem to be much other than typical general commentary in western media .

I know China is not as dependent on US market as it once was , but all this tarring stuff must be creating some domestic tension and uncertainty .

This whole thing feels like a giant blinking game to see which one will crumble first .
Living in the US and being exposed everyday to Trump , it feels like the country is acting desperate trying to throw everything at the wall in vain . Mershcheimer says “giving away” Americas industrial power and consequently know how to China was a historical blunder .

soccernutter · Sep 18, 2025

Roller coaster? Check out those top two lines. And just for comparison, median expectation on the top line was a 2.0 increase this month.

spejic · Sep 19, 2025

Powell says that Trump caused the work force to shrink, which is quite the admission. But he also said the need for workers shrunk.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-isn-t-being-subtle-204553609.html

Those don't sound like good things to me. But if they balance we can pretend things are fine for a bit longer.

Robert Borden · Sep 19, 2025

More consequences from tarrifs on Canada and Mexico, who are strengthening their ties

Also, what a despicable individual tha US ambassador - crying nonstop

The Jitty Slitter · Sep 19, 2025

spejic said: ↑

Powell says that Trump caused the work force to shrink, which is quite the admission. But he also said the need for workers shrunk.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-isn-t-being-subtle-204553609.html

Those don't sound like good things to me. But if they balance we can pretend things are fine for a bit longer.
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yes.

feyenoordsoccerfan · Sep 19, 2025

Robert Borden said: ↑

More consequences from tarrifs on Canada and Mexico, who are strengthening their ties

Also, what a despicable individual tha US ambassador - crying nonstop

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He's Dutch by origin, but unprepared for the Dutch bluntness of our press, when he was attacked for some stupid comments about the Netherlands.

soccernutter · Sep 19, 2025

spejic said: ↑

Powell says that Trump caused the work force to shrink, which is quite the admission. But he also said the need for workers shrunk.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-isn-t-being-subtle-204553609.html

Those don't sound like good things to me. But if they balance we can pretend things are fine for a bit longer.
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He also said that tariffs are likely going to be a one-time thing. I don't think that is correct. I think it will be rolling as they hit different sectors and businesses, both depending on where they manufacture stuff and where they get their supplies.

soccernutter · Sep 23, 2025

From the Richmond Fed

That's bad. And this is on top of the Financial Times saying that a third of states are already in a recession, and manufacturing overall is in a recession.

song219 · Sep 23, 2025

soccernutter said: ↑

From the Richmond Fed

View attachment 310112

That's bad. And this is on top of the Financial Times saying that a third of states are already in a recession, and manufacturing overall is in a recession.
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Trump's treating the country like one of his casinos.

roby · Sep 23, 2025

ceezmad · Sep 23, 2025

soccernutter said: ↑

From the Richmond Fed

View attachment 310112

That's bad. And this is on top of the Financial Times saying that a third of states are already in a recession, and manufacturing overall is in a recession.
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Illinois is one of those states.

Illinois’ real gross domestic product fell by 2.2% between January and March of 2025, according to latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Shit we have been stagnated since 2019. Over 6 years our economy has grown by only 5.2%, that is less than 1% per year.

https://www.illinoispolicy.org/illi...-2-in-early-2025-one-of-biggest-drops-in-u-s/