The job market, inflation and tariffs

On another note, I've been trying to get a part-time job for most of this year to help pay the bills and groceries. The amount of times I get a call from somewhere I applied that wants me to have full-time availability but will only give me 12-15 hours is absurd.

 

I don't recall individual prices that much, but we used to spend about $130 twice a week pre-pandemic, and that went up to $150-$160 in 2024. This year is not unusual for us to hit $180-200, with the biggest culprit being the animal protein, in almost any shape. I'd agree that milk and eggs have stabilized compared to 2024, but any sort of beverage in a container has gone up significantly, most notoriously Orange Juice.

Our strategy has shifted too: We stop at Aldi and then, we shop whatever we can't find at Publix, where we also search for BOGO deals. About once a month we go to Costco for beef, poultry and or fish in bulk.

Disclaimer: We have two teens at home, and my wife insist on a lot of organic produce, so the increase in our expenditures might have multiple causes.

 

Fewer jobs, much shitt!er…

 

In the NoVa region, I noticed an increase in banana prices in the first half of the year. Initially, they jumped up around 5-10%. Right around the beginning of summer, they shot back up to 20-30%. This time last year, they were in the 45-50 cents/lb. Now they cost 60-65 cents/lb, more than organic bananas did a year ago*

https://www.bigsoccer.com/threads/t...er-continuation.2135063/page-69#post-43027386


the graph here, shows an increase of 8-9% in the average US city over one year.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000711211

*I briefly lived in banana-growing regions in Latin America. They are literally side by side. The only thing that distinguishes organic from treated bananas are the blue bags that are used to protect them during shipping.

 

Bananas are one of the items groceries don't make money on ("loss leaders") because people remember the price. Before I moved to New Orleans from NoVa we were down here visiting and I was shocked that bananas were more expensive here, even though you could literally see the banana boat from the parking lot. Anyway, the point is that the price we pay doesn't necessarily reflect what the store is paying.

 

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-feds-gain-of-function-monetary-policy-ac0dc38a

Scott Bessent calls out FOMC "Wealth Effect" policies that grew out of the GFC for our current economic predicament. This shit should have been retired in 2012 but ZIRP and QE are a hell of a drug

 

So, major revision in the employment numbers released by the BLS (can we remove the "L" yet?). Stock market doesn't seem to care as the major indices didn't budge a bit on this news. Not sure if numbers are made up and everyone knows it or its because its old data and doesn't really change what companies reported on in their second quarters.

 

Looks like we might be scrapping the 100% tariffs we imposed on Chinese EV. China imposed counter-tariffs on our canola oil industry which is hurting Saskatchewan producers.

We're about to be flooded with Chinese EVs that are cheaper and better than Tesla.

• The price tag for a Chinese-made BYD Seagull, which has now surpassed Tesla as the world’s largest EV manufacturer, is around $13,800 — without the 100 per cent tariffs, or added costs like safety certification and shipping

• At the moment, few EV models in Canada are available for less than $45,000.

Could be an opportunity to get new factories build here - it came close to happen in Mexico.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/aut...tent&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

 

So, naturally the Dow jumps 600 points. Bad news is good news on Wall Street.

 

I’ll bet there is some insider info, maybe that SCOTUS is going to strike down the emergency declaration justifying the tariffs.

 

Bad news means there is a better chance of future Fed rate cuts so bad news is actually good news.

 

Right. That's what I was getting at by the "bad news is good news" point. But surely now even a 75- point rate drop by year's end is fully factored into the market. From here on any more bad news is going to mean bad news for the S&P.

 

Yep but we were talking about the Dow so it's the news for the stocks they are concerned about.

 

Mo er winning.

 

MAGAs about to jump in and say "we're going to start our own soybean factories soon"!